| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 27 | |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 40 |
No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 19:12 | Evan Bouchard (12) Mattias Ekholm (20), Zach Hyman (13) · snap xG 0.03 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 19:34 | Aliaksei Protas (18) Rasmus Sandin (15), Tom Wilson (23) · tip-in xG 0.13 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 4:13 | Evan Bouchard (13) Leon Draisaitl (43), Connor McDavid (56) · snap xG 0.03 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 6:50 | Justin Sourdif (11) Hendrix Lapierre (7), Connor McMichael (22) · wrist xG 0.05 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 14:29 | Anthony Beauvillier (10) John Carlson (33), Ethen Frank (10) · snap xG 0.01 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 4:30 | Evan Bouchard (14) Connor McDavid (57), Leon Draisaitl (44) · wrist xG 0.12 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| 6:40 | Dylan Strome (14)PP Jakob Chychrun (19), Tom Wilson (24) · wrist xG 0.03 | 4–3 ▶ | |
| 8:24 | Connor McDavid (31)PP Evan Bouchard (39), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (29) · wrist xG 0.09 | 4–4 ▶ | |
| 15:09 | Connor McMichael (8) John Carlson (34), Justin Sourdif (13) · bat xG 0.28 | 5–4 ▶ | |
| 19:28 | Zach Hyman (20) Connor McDavid (58), Evan Bouchard (40) · tip-in xG 0.32 | 5–5 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 0:47 | Connor McDavid (32) Evan Bouchard (41), Leon Draisaitl (45) · backhand xG 0.42 | 5–6 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| WSH | EDM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.42 | Expected goals | 6.70 |
| 5 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 3.16 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.72 |
| 65 | Shot attempts | 76 |
| 46 | Unblocked attempts | 58 |
| 27 | Shots on goal | 40 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 14:29 | EDM | Goalie change | Goalie change · Jarry in for Ingram
14:29 of the 2nd; Ingram had allowed 3 goals on 12 shots (1.09 xG) |
| 14:50 | WSH | No shift | No shift · Sandin, 22:23 on the bench
No shift after the end of the 1st; 7 shifts (5:08) before that |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:53 | WSH | Goalie | Goalie · Lindgren +2.0 goals saved
2 goals on 4.03 xG, 26 shots on goal |
| 15:20 | WSH | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced EDM 1.76–0.41
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:00 to 16:00 of the 3rd; goals 2–1 |
| 17:39 | EDM | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Jarry, down 5–4
With 2:21 left; EDM scored at 19:28 of the 3rd (5–5) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 43 | Tom Wilson | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 2 | 19:29 |
| 26 | Nic Dowd | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 19:02 |
| 17 | Dylan Strome | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 |
| 77 | Connor McMichael | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0.75 | 1 | 0 | 17:59 |
| 21 | Aliaksei Protas | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 10 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 | 17:34 |
| 8 | Alex Ovechkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.34 | 3 | 1 | 15:29 |
| 34 | Justin Sourdif | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 0.21 | 2 | 0 | 15:17 |
| 9 | Ryan Leonard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0 | 1 | 14:56 |
| 72 | Anthony Beauvillier | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.51 | 1 | 1 | 13:46 |
| 53 | Ethen Frank | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 | 09:56 |
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 07:22 |
| 22 | Hendrix Lapierre | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 06:34 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 74 | John Carlson | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 2 | 25:53 |
| 6 | Jakob Chychrun | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 0.04 | 0 | 3 | 25:34 |
| 42 | Martin Fehérváry | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 2 | 23:40 |
| 3 | Matt Roy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 21:27 |
| 57 | Trevor van Riemsdyk | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 |
| 38 | Rasmus Sandin | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 05:08 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | 40 | 6 | 34 | .850 | 6.70 | +0.70 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 97 | Connor McDavid | 2 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 12 | 1.71 | 0 | 1 | 28:43 |
| 29 | Leon Draisaitl | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 0.44 | 0 | 2 | 26:16 |
| 18 | Zach Hyman | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 9 | 1.39 | 0 | 1 | 24:06 |
| 93 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 0 | 22:43 |
| 22 | Matt Savoie | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 |
| 96 | Jack Roslovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 11:58 |
| 13 | Mattias Janmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 |
| 92 | Vasily Podkolzin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.51 | 3 | 1 | 11:19 |
| 26 | Andrew Mangiapane | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 09:39 |
| 53 | Isaac Howard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 | 09:12 |
| 10 | Trent Frederic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 2 | 0 | 07:48 |
| 20 | Curtis Lazar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.01 | 4 | 0 | 07:02 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Evan Bouchard | 3 | 3 | 6 | +5 | 11 | 0.43 | 1 | 2 | 29:25 |
| 14 | Mattias Ekholm | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 19:59 |
| 96 | Jake Walman | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 4 | 0.18 | 0 | 2 | 18:04 |
| 25 | Darnell Nurse | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.12 | 0 | 3 | 17:26 |
| 49 | Ty Emberson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 15:07 |
| 24 | Spencer Stastney | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 12:37 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram | 12 | 3 | 9 | .750 | 1.09 | -1.91 |
| Tristan Jarry | 15 | 2 | 13 | .867 | 2.33 | +0.33 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 Justin Sourdif R | +3.02 | +1.30 | +0.14 | +1.31 | +0.30 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 15:17 |
| 24 Connor McMichael C | +2.29 | +1.30 | +0.49 | +0.57 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.06 | — | 17:59 |
| 74 John Carlson D | +1.89 | +1.40 | +0.04 | +0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 25:53 |
| 8 Alex Ovechkin L | +1.79 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +1.39 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 15:29 |
| 6 Jakob Chychrun D | +1.50 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.86 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 25:34 |
| 53 Ethen Frank C | +1.44 | +0.55 | +0.12 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 9:56 |
| 72 Anthony Beauvillier L | +1.29 | +0.75 | +0.33 | +0.17 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 13:46 |
| 43 Tom Wilson R | +1.18 | +1.10 | +0.04 | +0.09 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 19:31 |
| 17 Dylan Strome C | +1.01 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.08 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.04 | — | 18:35 |
| 57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.90 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 14:07 |
| 21 Aliaksei Protas C | +0.77 | +0.75 | +0.31 | -0.30 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 17:34 |
| 29 Hendrix Lapierre C | +0.76 | +0.70 | +0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 6:34 |
| 38 Rasmus Sandin D | +0.69 | +0.70 | +0.07 | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 5:08 |
| 79 Charlie Lindgren G | +0.55 | 0.00 | — | — | -0.15 | — | — | +0.70 | 60:47 |
| 9 Ryan Leonard R | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 14:56 |
| 22 Brandon Duhaime R | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7:22 |
| 3 Matt Roy D | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:27 |
| 26 Nic Dowd C | -0.44 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.05 | — | 19:02 |
| 42 Martin Fehérváry D | -0.65 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.93 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 23:38 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Evan Bouchard D | +5.52 | +4.20 | +0.28 | +0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 29:25 |
| 97 Connor McDavid C | +5.41 | +3.45 | +1.11 | +0.68 | +0.15 | +0.02 | -0.01 | — | 28:43 |
| 18 Zach Hyman L | +2.93 | +1.30 | +0.91 | +0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 24:06 |
| 29 Leon Draisaitl C | +1.53 | +1.80 | +0.28 | -0.44 | -0.15 | -0.02 | +0.06 | — | 26:16 |
| 14 Mattias Ekholm D | +1.46 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:59 |
| 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | +1.42 | +0.55 | +0.45 | +0.44 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 22:43 |
| 35 Tristan Jarry G | +0.33 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.33 | 24:29 |
| 28 Jack Roslovic C | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 11:58 |
| 53 Isaac Howard L | +0.14 | 0.00 | +0.16 | -0.14 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 9:12 |
| 92 Vasily Podkolzin R | +0.07 | 0.00 | +0.33 | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 11:19 |
| 10 Trent Frederic C | -0.06 | 0.00 | +0.16 | -0.21 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 7:48 |
| 20 Curtis Lazar C | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.06 | -0.30 | +0.04 | 0.00 | — | 7:02 |
| 88 Andrew Mangiapane L | -0.31 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 9:39 |
| 22 Matt Savoie C | -0.43 | 0.00 | +0.35 | -0.90 | +0.15 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:39 |
| 25 Darnell Nurse D | -0.48 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 17:26 |
| 49 Ty Emberson D | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.51 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 15:07 |
| 24 Spencer Stastney D | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 12:37 |
| 13 Mattias Janmark C | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.08 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:25 |
| 39 Connor Ingram G | -1.91 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.91 | 34:29 |
| 96 Jake Walman D | -2.07 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 18:04 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.