Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 2–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	0	2	2	34
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	2	2	4	36

Playoff odds, %	Change
TOR	-2.3
TBL	+0.0
OTT	+0.4
BUF	+0.3

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 23, 2026 9:51 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
7:07	TBL	Brayden Point (12) Charle-Edouard D'Astous (15), Pontus Holmberg (9) · wrist xG 0.07	0–1 ▶
7:58	TBL	Gage Goncalves (7) Nikita Kucherov (63), Charle-Edouard D'Astous (16) · wrist xG 0.42	0–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:59	TBL	Nikita Kucherov (30) Gage Goncalves (12), Brayden Point (20) · slap xG 0.07	0–3 ▶
16:19	TOR	John Tavares (21)PP William Nylander (35), Matthew Knies (33) · wrist xG 0.15	1–3 ▶
16:30	TBL	Brayden Point (13) Nikita Kucherov (64), Gage Goncalves (13) · wrist xG 0.14	1–4 ▶
17:13	TOR	Matthew Knies (15) William Nylander (36), Auston Matthews (23) · snap xG 0.02	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 31%Deserve to win69% TBL

TOR		TBL
3.79	Expected goals	6.09
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.16	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.60
59	Shot attempts	76
48	Unblocked attempts	59
34	Shots on goal	36

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
2:16	TOR	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TOR takes the lead, 61–39% TBL had led since 3:28 of the 1st, by as much as 71%
7:58	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 61–39% TOR had led since 2:16 of the 2nd, by as much as 61%
12:20	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.78–0.35 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:20 to 12:20 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
15:14	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.07 xG, 18 shots on goal
3rd Period
10:00	TBL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.44–0.04 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:50 to 13:50 of the 3rd; neither team scored
13:49	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Stolarz +2.1 goals saved 3 goals on 5.06 xG, 35 shots on goal
15:03	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 3–0 With 4:57 left; TOR scored at 16:19 of the 3rd (1–3)
16:44	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Stolarz, down 4–1 With 3:16 left; TOR scored at 17:13 of the 3rd (2–4)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	1	1	+1	3	0.14	1	3	22:54
88	William Nylander	0	2	2	0	4	0.41	0	0	19:02
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	+1	2	0.10	0	0	18:31
89	Matthew Knies	1	1	2	0	5	0.29	1	0	17:48
91	John Tavares	1	0	1	-1	5	0.29	0	1	17:29
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	-2	3	0.23	0	0	15:22
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	-1	4	0.49	3	0	14:24
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-1	5	0.53	0	1	14:15
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	-2	2	0.35	5	1	12:52
21	Scott Laughton	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	0	12:02
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	0	1	10:18
19	Calle Jarnkrok	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	08:11
Defense
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	0	10	0.49	1	3	22:40
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	-2	2	0.00	0	3	22:00
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	-1	5	0.11	2	0	20:09
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	3	17:43
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	0	0	16:28
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	4	1	14:32

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Anthony Stolarz	36	4	32	.889	5.19	+1.19

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
86	Nikita Kucherov	1	2	3	+3	5	0.25	0	2	23:57
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	0	8	1.57	0	1	22:25
21	Brayden Point	2	1	3	+4	11	1.25	0	0	22:16
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	0	7	0.52	1	1	20:30
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-1	6	0.20	4	0	19:53
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-1	3	0.27	2	1	17:54
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	1	15:43
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	7	0.66	1	1	12:29
93	Gage Goncalves	1	2	3	+4	3	0.42	0	0	11:51
17	Dominic James	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	1	0	10:59
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	2	1	05:54
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	+1	7	0.23	1	0	23:55
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	+2	5	0.37	1	2	18:53
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	0	0	17:04
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	16:19
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	2	2	+2	2	0.05	1	0	15:09
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	0	5	0.05	0	0	11:51
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	+3	2	0.00	2	0	09:33

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	34	2	32	.941	3.79	+1.79

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
88 William Nylander R	+1.36	+1.40	+0.27	-0.33	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	19:02
23 Matthew Knies L	+1.28	+1.30	+0.19	-0.21	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:48
41 Anthony Stolarz G	+1.19	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.19	55:20
91 John Tavares C	+0.86	+0.75	+0.19	-0.10	0.00	+0.01	+0.01	—	17:29
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.65	+0.55	+0.09	-0.32	+0.15	+0.05	+0.13	—	22:54
18 Steven Lorentz C	+0.06	0.00	+0.11	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	10:18
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.06	0.00	+0.22	-0.30	0.00	-0.01	+0.03	—	12:52
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.14	0.00	+0.02	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	17:43
63 Matias Maccelli L	-0.17	0.00	+0.34	-0.57	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	14:15
44 Morgan Rielly D	-0.27	0.00	+0.07	-0.34	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	20:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok C	-0.41	0.00	+0.02	-0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:11
11 Max Domi C	-0.66	0.00	+0.07	-0.74	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	18:31
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.69	0.00	+0.32	-1.03	-0.15	0.00	+0.17	—	22:40
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.70	0.00	+0.01	-0.67	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:28
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.92	0.00	+0.05	-0.72	-0.30	0.00	+0.05	—	14:32
24 Scott Laughton C	-0.94	0.00	+0.02	-0.96	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	12:02
55 Nicolas Roy C	-1.01	0.00	+0.15	-1.17	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	15:22
74 Bobby McMann C	-1.03	0.00	+0.32	-1.33	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:24
22 Jake McCabe D	-1.19	0.00	0.00	-1.32	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	22:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
21 Brayden Point C	+4.75	+2.05	+0.81	+1.70	+0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	22:16
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+3.94	+2.15	+0.16	+1.53	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	23:57
93 Gage Goncalves C	+3.87	+2.00	+0.28	+1.45	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	11:51
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+3.28	+1.25	+0.04	+2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:09
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+1.79	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.79	60:00
90 J.J. Moser D	+1.63	0.00	+0.24	+1.30	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:53
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+1.47	+0.55	0.00	+0.72	+0.15	+0.02	+0.03	—	15:43
78 Emil Lilleberg D	+1.38	0.00	0.00	+1.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:33
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.25	0.00	+1.02	+0.22	0.00	-0.04	+0.05	—	22:25
38 Brandon Hagel L	+0.98	0.00	+0.34	+0.46	+0.15	-0.02	+0.05	—	20:30
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+0.96	0.00	+0.43	+0.48	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	12:29
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.55	0.00	+0.15	+0.42	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	23:55
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	+0.35	0.00	+0.17	+0.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	17:54
77 Victor Hedman D	+0.20	0.00	+0.03	+0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:51
46 Scott Sabourin R	+0.17	0.00	+0.09	+0.03	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	5:54
17 Dominic James C	-0.02	0.00	+0.06	-0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:59
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.33	0.00	+0.13	-0.37	0.00	-0.07	-0.02	—	19:53
81 Erik Cernak D	-0.37	0.00	0.00	-0.22	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	17:04
27 Ryan McDonagh D	-0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.42	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	16:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.