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New York IslandersNYI 4–3 Final/OT Montréal CanadiensMTL

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 0211 4 26
Montréal CanadiensMTL 1110 3 25
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI +6.6
MTL -3.6
WSH -1.0
CBJ -0.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 26, 2026 6:49 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:11 MTL Noah Dobson (11) Lane Hutson (49) · snap xG 0.10 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
10:06 MTL Noah Dobson (12)PP Alexandre Texier (12), Alex Newhook (7) · slap xG 0.05 0–2 ▶
17:56 NYI Matthew Schaefer (17)PP Mathew Barzal (35), Calum Ritchie (9) · snap xG 0.15 1–2 ▶
18:51 NYI Matthew Schaefer (18) Tony DeAngelo (21), Ilya Sorokin (1) · snap xG 0.05 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
9:11 MTL Cole Caufield (33)PP Ivan Demidov (35), Juraj Slafkovský (25) · snap xG 0.55 2–3 ▶
18:19 NYI Anders Lee (12) Bo Horvat (17), Simon Holmstrom (17) · deflected xG 0.15 3–3 ▶
Overtime
1:46 NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau (13) Simon Holmstrom (18) · backhand xG 0.23 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 54%Deserve to win46% MTL
NYIMTL
3.37Expected goals3.11
4Goals (no shootout)3
2.27Expected goals, 5 on 51.90
63Shot attempts57
43Unblocked attempts36
26Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:32 MTL Goalie Goalie · Montembeault +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.06 xG, 13 shots on goal
3rd Period
17:34 NYI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Sorokin, down 3–2
With 2:26 left; NYI scored at 18:19 of the 3rd (3–3)

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots
Lane Hutson: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:46) Anders Lee: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 2:17) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 2:19) Jake Evans: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:58) Anders Lee: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:19) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:20) Jonathan Drouin: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:28) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:31) Lane Hutson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:52) Alexandre Texier: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:53) Alex Newhook: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:32) Kaiden Guhle: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:17) Nick Suzuki: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:13) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 166 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:23) Jake Evans: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:12) Kirby Dach: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:51) Josh Anderson: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:06) Brendan Gallagher: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:11) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:28) Marc Gatcomb: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:15) Nick Suzuki: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 16:29) Anders Lee: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 17:48) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:29) Oliver Kapanen: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 19:09) Ryan Pulock: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:52) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:57) Emil Heineman: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:19) Alex Newhook: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 2:04) Bo Horvat: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:28) Nick Suzuki: tip-in, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:54) Nick Suzuki: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:22) Jonathan Drouin: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 5:16) Casey Cizikas: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:54) Cole Caufield: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:34) Nick Suzuki: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:43) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: snap, 105 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:49) Bo Horvat: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:35) Ondrej Palat: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 10:42) Calum Ritchie: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:58) Carson Soucy: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:30) Lane Hutson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:14) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:45) Nick Suzuki: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:02) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:18) Bo Horvat: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:52) Nick Suzuki: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 15:29) Arber Xhekaj: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:36) Adam Pelech: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:26) Bo Horvat: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 17:11) Bo Horvat: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:32) Bo Horvat: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:43) Bo Horvat: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:50) Bo Horvat: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:03) Emil Heineman: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 2:31) Tony DeAngelo: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:57) Cole Caufield: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:42) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 4:24) Oliver Kapanen: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:25) Cole Caufield: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:17) Ivan Demidov: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:53) Juraj Slafkovský: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 9:09) Emil Heineman: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:36) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:28) Mike Matheson: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:47) Noah Dobson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:54) Anders Lee: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:55) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:31) Ryan Pulock: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:35) Ryan Pulock: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:35) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:58) Bo Horvat: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:17) Nick Suzuki: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 0:22) Noah Dobson: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:11) Noah Dobson: GOAL, slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:06) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:56) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:51) Cole Caufield: GOAL, snap, 3 ft, xG 0.55 (P3 9:11) Anders Lee: GOAL, deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:19) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (OT 1:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 011 +1 110.95 3223:50
13 Mathew Barzal 011 +1 20.00 1022:19
81 Ondrej Palat 000 0 40.15 1516:25
92 Simon Holmstrom 022 +2 10.18 0116:02
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 101 +1 70.50 5014:51
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 0 20.21 0214:27
64 Calum Ritchie 011 +1 10.05 0014:26
72 Anders Lee 101 +1 50.60 1014:15
51 Emil Heineman 000 0 30.23 3113:43
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 10.05 1112:52
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 00.00 2009:29
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 0 20.02 6108:59
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 202 +1 70.24 0225:56
3 Adam Pelech 000 0 40.02 2222:04
6 Ryan Pulock 000 0 50.06 0321:43
77 Tony DeAngelo 011 +1 60.08 0020:45
7 Carson Soucy 000 0 20.04 1014:51
24 Scott Mayfield 000 0 00.00 0013:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 25322 .880 3.11 +0.11

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 000 -1 80.74 3024:36
13 Cole Caufield 101 +1 70.80 0121:09
20 Juraj Slafkovský 011 -2 10.11 1318:42
93 Ivan Demidov 011 0 20.07 0017:04
77 Kirby Dach 000 +1 20.02 2016:09
71 Jake Evans 000 0 20.10 1013:25
15 Alex Newhook 011 0 20.27 2113:18
24 Phillip Danault 000 -2 00.00 1013:08
85 Alexandre Texier 011 0 20.04 1013:01
91 Oliver Kapanen 000 0 30.41 2212:09
17 Josh Anderson 000 -1 10.03 0111:55
7 Brendan Gallagher 000 0 40.02 3311:03
Defense
48 Lane Hutson 011 +1 30.11 0124:00
53 Noah Dobson 202 -2 70.17 0121:54
8 Mike Matheson 000 -2 30.04 1221:45
21 Kaiden Guhle 000 0 60.16 2421:37
45 Alexandre Carrier 000 -1 10.00 0115:29
72 Arber Xhekaj 000 0 30.01 3011:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Montembeault 26422 .846 3.37 -0.63

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D +2.41 +1.50 +0.15 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:56
14 Bo Horvat C +1.79 +0.70 +0.62 +0.34 0.00 +0.03 +0.10 — 23:50
27 Anders Lee L +1.66 +0.75 +0.39 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 14:15
10 Simon Holmstrom R +1.65 +1.25 +0.12 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:02
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C +1.61 +0.75 +0.32 +0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:51
77 Tony DeAngelo D +1.11 +0.70 +0.05 +0.22 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:45
13 Mathew Barzal C +0.91 +0.70 0.00 +0.08 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 22:19
6 Ryan Pulock D +0.80 0.00 +0.04 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:43
64 Calum Ritchie C +0.73 +0.55 +0.03 +0.22 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 14:26
81 Ondrej Palat L +0.68 0.00 +0.10 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 16:25
30 Ilya Sorokin G +0.66 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — +0.11 61:01
3 Adam Pelech D +0.50 0.00 +0.01 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 22:04
51 Emil Heineman L +0.48 0.00 +0.15 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:43
29 Jonathan Drouin L +0.42 0.00 +0.14 +0.18 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 14:27
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.27 0.00 +0.01 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:59
4 Carson Soucy D -0.36 0.00 +0.03 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:51
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.66 0.00 +0.03 -0.71 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 12:52
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.83 0.00 0.00 -0.64 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 9:29
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.74 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:52

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
13 Cole Caufield R +2.05 +0.75 +0.52 +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:09
53 Noah Dobson D +1.52 +1.50 +0.11 -0.27 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:54
85 Alexandre Texier L +1.17 +0.70 +0.02 +0.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:01
15 Alex Newhook C +1.06 +0.55 +0.18 +0.25 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 13:18
14 Nick Suzuki C +0.92 0.00 +0.48 +0.43 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 24:36
48 Lane Hutson D +0.85 +0.70 +0.07 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 24:00
77 Kirby Dach C +0.53 0.00 +0.01 +0.53 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 16:09
21 Kaiden Guhle D +0.42 0.00 +0.10 -0.02 +0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 21:37
71 Jake Evans C +0.12 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 13:25
93 Ivan Demidov R -0.01 +0.70 +0.05 -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:04
72 Arber Xhekaj D -0.02 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:58
11 Brendan Gallagher R -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 11:03
20 Juraj Slafkovský L -0.20 +0.55 +0.07 -0.75 -0.15 -0.01 +0.09 — 18:42
24 Phillip Danault C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 13:08
8 Mike Matheson D -0.32 0.00 +0.03 -0.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:45
17 Josh Anderson R -0.41 0.00 +0.02 -0.61 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 11:55
45 Alexandre Carrier D -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:29
91 Oliver Kapanen C -0.47 0.00 +0.27 -0.80 0.00 -0.04 +0.10 — 12:09
35 Samuel Montembeault G -0.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.63 61:16

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.