Ottawa SenatorsOTT 5–2 Final Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	1	4	0	5	40
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	1	1	0	2	23

Playoff odds, %	Change
OTT	+4.7
TOR	-1.1
BOS	-1.0
DET	-0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 6:55 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:52	TOR	Morgan Rielly (8) Auston Matthews (25), Jake McCabe (16) · wrist xG 0.11	0–1 ▶
10:59	OTT	Thomas Chabot (6) Brady Tkachuk (24), Dylan Cozens (26) · wrist xG 0.11	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:03	OTT	Dylan Cozens (19) Thomas Chabot (18), Fabian Zetterlund (11) · wrist xG 0.24	2–1 ▶
13:05	OTT	Drake Batherson (20) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.13	3–1 ▶
13:56	TOR	William Nylander (19) Scott Laughton (4), Matias Maccelli (15) · poke xG 0.62	3–2 ▶
15:15	OTT	Drake Batherson (21) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.13	4–2 ▶
16:06	OTT	Dylan Cozens (20)PP Tim Stützle (35), Jake Sanderson (37) · wrist xG 0.11	5–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

OTT 79%Deserve to win21% TOR

OTT		TOR
4.06	Expected goals	2.21
5	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.96	Expected goals, 5 on 5	1.87
74	Shot attempts	43
59	Unblocked attempts	37
40	Shots on goal	23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:18	OTT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · OTT takes the lead, 60–40% TOR had led since 2:52 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
14:20	OTT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.45–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 9:20 to 19:20 of the 1st; goals 1–0
2nd Period
16:06	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Woll −2.2 goals saved 5 goals on 2.80 xG, 28 shots on goal
16:06	TOR	Goalie change	Goalie change · Stolarz in for Woll 16:06 of the 2nd; Woll had allowed 5 goals on 28 shots (2.80 xG)

Shot map

OTT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TOR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	0	1	1	0	4	0.14	4	0	18:31
19	Drake Batherson	2	0	2	+1	5	0.62	1	0	17:46
12	Shane Pinto	0	0	0	0	13	0.76	1	0	17:34
22	Michael Amadio	0	0	0	0	5	0.50	1	1	17:00
24	Dylan Cozens	2	1	3	+1	7	0.41	6	0	16:23
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	1	1	+2	6	0.48	6	0	15:37
28	Claude Giroux	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	0	15:15
71	Ridly Greig	0	0	0	0	5	0.25	1	0	13:43
34	Stephen Halliday	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	1	12:06
21	Nick Cousins	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	11:50
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	0	10:46
20	Fabian Zetterlund	0	1	1	+2	2	0.07	2	0	10:14
Defense
85	Jake Sanderson	0	1	1	+1	5	0.09	0	0	23:12
72	Thomas Chabot	1	1	2	+2	6	0.16	0	2	21:54
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	1	20:23
10	Jordan Spence	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	0	1	18:38
43	Tyler Kleven	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	0	16:46
4	Nick Jensen	0	0	0	+3	3	0.19	1	0	16:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	23	2	21	.913	2.21	+0.21

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	1	1	-1	4	0.15	1	2	17:55
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	17:07
63	Matias Maccelli	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	0	0	16:47
88	William Nylander	1	0	1	+1	8	1.09	0	0	16:37
10	Nicolas Roy	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	1	0	16:08
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	1	1	15:37
21	Scott Laughton	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	4	0	14:13
74	Bobby McMann	0	0	0	-1	5	0.27	2	0	13:53
53	Easton Cowan	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	1	0	13:34
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	3	0	12:00
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	3	1	11:57
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	0	0	10:42
Defense
22	Jake McCabe	0	1	1	0	3	0.01	0	0	22:48
44	Morgan Rielly	1	0	1	+2	4	0.16	0	4	21:01
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	1	0	19:48
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	0	3	18:00
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	-2	2	0.01	6	1	17:51
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-3	1	0.02	0	2	17:27

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	28	5	23	.821	2.80	-2.20
Anthony Stolarz	12	0	12	1.000	1.26	+1.26

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Thomas Chabot D	+3.43	+1.45	+0.10	+1.80	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	21:54
24 Dylan Cozens C	+3.05	+2.05	+0.27	+0.85	-0.15	+0.03	0.00	—	16:23
19 Drake Batherson R	+2.01	+1.50	+0.41	+0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:46
3 Nick Jensen D	+1.98	0.00	+0.12	+1.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:20
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+1.93	+0.70	+0.31	+1.05	-0.15	+0.02	0.00	—	15:37
85 Jake Sanderson D	+1.61	+0.55	+0.06	+1.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	23:12
12 Shane Pinto C	+1.39	0.00	+0.49	+0.74	+0.15	-0.03	+0.04	—	17:34
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	+1.38	+0.55	+0.04	+0.77	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	10:14
22 Michael Amadio R	+1.08	0.00	+0.33	+0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:00
2 Artem Zub D	+0.86	0.00	+0.02	+0.79	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	20:23
28 Claude Giroux R	+0.65	0.00	+0.08	+0.60	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	15:15
21 Nick Cousins C	+0.58	0.00	+0.01	+0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:50
18 Tim Stützle C	+0.47	+0.70	+0.09	-0.29	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	18:31
35 Linus Ullmark G	+0.21	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.21	60:00
83 Stephen Halliday C	+0.19	0.00	+0.09	+0.05	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	12:06
89 Lars Eller C	-0.11	0.00	+0.02	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	10:46
71 Ridly Greig C	-0.25	0.00	+0.16	-0.53	+0.15	+0.01	-0.04	—	13:43
10 Jordan Spence D	-1.01	0.00	+0.04	-1.06	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:40
43 Tyler Kleven D	-1.43	0.00	0.00	-1.40	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	16:46

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
88 William Nylander R	+1.85	+0.75	+0.71	+0.38	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:37
44 Morgan Rielly D	+1.57	+0.75	+0.10	+0.66	-0.15	0.00	+0.20	—	21:01
41 Anthony Stolarz G	+1.26	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.26	23:54
25 Brandon Carlo D	+0.96	0.00	+0.04	+0.92	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	19:50
63 Matias Maccelli L	+0.77	+0.55	+0.01	+0.23	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	16:47
24 Scott Laughton C	+0.61	+0.70	+0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	14:13
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.21	+0.70	+0.10	-0.66	0.00	-0.01	+0.08	—	17:55
91 John Tavares C	+0.17	0.00	+0.03	-0.11	+0.15	+0.05	+0.05	—	15:37
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.07	+0.55	+0.01	-0.60	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	22:46
53 Easton Cowan R	-0.19	0.00	+0.09	-0.26	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:34
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.31	0.00	0.00	-0.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:00
89 Nick Robertson L	-0.48	0.00	+0.09	-0.58	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	10:42
23 Matthew Knies L	-0.59	0.00	0.00	-0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:07
11 Max Domi C	-0.65	0.00	+0.01	-0.74	0.00	+0.01	+0.07	—	11:57
74 Bobby McMann C	-0.72	0.00	+0.18	-0.88	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:53
55 Nicolas Roy C	-0.83	0.00	+0.03	-0.81	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	16:08
28 Troy Stecher D	-1.05	0.00	+0.01	-1.17	0.00	0.00	+0.11	—	18:00
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-1.20	0.00	+0.01	-1.31	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	17:27
2 Simon Benoit D	-1.54	0.00	+0.01	-1.60	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:51
60 Joseph Woll G	-2.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.20	35:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.