Buffalo SabresBUF 6–2 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF	4	1	1	6	35
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	1	1	2	38

Playoff odds, %	Change
BUF	+2.7
TBL	-0.1
CBJ	-0.5
PHI	-0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 6:55 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:25	BUF	Rasmus Dahlin (12) Owen Power (14) · wrist xG 0.06	1–0 ▶
6:15	BUF	Josh Norris (7) Josh Doan (22), Zach Metsa (2) · wrist xG 0.10	2–0 ▶
8:18	BUF	Josh Norris (8) Bowen Byram (21), Zach Benson (20) · tip-in xG 0.10	3–0 ▶
15:06	BUF	Tage Thompson (32) Peyton Krebs (20), Rasmus Dahlin (38) · wrist xG 0.14	4–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:54	BUF	Zach Metsa (2) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.20	5–0 ▶
16:03	TBL	Dominic James (7) Oliver Bjorkstrand (18), Victor Hedman (14) · wrist xG 0.25	5–1 ▶
3rd Period
3:43	BUF	Alex Tuch (24)PP Rasmus Dahlin (39), Jack Quinn (26) · wrist xG 0.05	6–1 ▶
5:27	TBL	Victor Hedman (1) Darren Raddysh (37) · slap xG 0.05	6–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 63%Deserve to win37% TBL

BUF		TBL
4.29	Expected goals	3.43
6	Goals (no shootout)	2
2.45	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.74
55	Shot attempts	65
50	Unblocked attempts	51
35	Shots on goal	38

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
8:18	TBL	Goalie	Goalie · Vasilevskiy −2.3 goals saved 3 goals on 0.69 xG, 5 shots on goal
2nd Period
1:54	TBL	Goalie change	Goalie change · Johansson in for Vasilevskiy 1:54 of the 2nd; Vasilevskiy had allowed 5 goals on 14 shots (2.10 xG)
12:50	BUF	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.17–0.15 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
9:50	TBL	No shift	No shift · Goncalves, 15:16 on the bench No shift after 5:42 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (8:17) before that

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
71	Ryan McLeod	0	0	0	+2	2	0.34	0	1	20:21
89	Alex Tuch	1	0	1	0	8	0.68	1	0	18:15
91	Josh Doan	0	1	1	+2	2	0.18	1	1	16:08
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	-1	6	0.52	0	0	16:00
9	Josh Norris	2	0	2	+2	3	0.25	0	0	15:03
86	Noah Ostlund	0	0	0	+1	1	0.27	1	2	14:46
22	Jack Quinn	0	1	1	+3	6	0.26	1	0	14:21
6	Zach Benson	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	0	13:39
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	13:04
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	3	0.13	4	2	12:26
17	Jason Zucker	0	0	0	+2	2	0.13	0	1	12:05
19	Peyton Krebs	0	1	1	-1	3	0.23	5	0	10:59
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	1	2	3	+3	3	0.31	0	0	24:32
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	1	2	24:08
24	Bowen Byram	0	1	1	+3	5	0.23	0	2	22:45
25	Owen Power	0	1	1	+2	6	0.25	0	0	19:59
73	Zach Metsa	1	1	2	+2	3	0.42	0	2	13:08
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	08:40

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	38	2	36	.947	3.43	+1.43

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	-1	11	0.87	0	1	21:03
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	0	0	-1	6	0.17	0	0	20:11
21	Brayden Point	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	17:52
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	1	1	-1	6	0.47	2	0	17:20
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	-2	1	0.01	5	0	15:59
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	-2	4	0.08	3	0	15:03
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	0	0	-2	3	0.36	2	0	14:01
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	1	0	13:49
17	Dominic James	1	0	1	0	1	0.25	2	0	13:06
59	Jake Guentzel	0	0	0	-1	4	0.34	0	0	13:02
93	Gage Goncalves	0	0	0	-1	3	0.26	3	0	08:17
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	1	1	+1	8	0.18	1	0	20:25
77	Victor Hedman	1	1	2	+1	6	0.17	1	1	16:53
78	Emil Lilleberg	0	0	0	-2	3	0.05	3	0	16:48
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	-4	0	0.00	0	0	16:11
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	3	0	15:54
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	-1	3	0.07	1	1	15:46
81	Erik Cernak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	1	1	14:36

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	14	5	9	.643	2.10	-2.90
Jonas Johansson	21	1	20	.952	2.19	+1.19

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+3.09	+2.00	+0.20	+0.80	+0.15	0.00	-0.06	—	24:32
73 Zach Metsa D	+2.21	+1.30	+0.27	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	13:08
9 Josh Norris C	+1.92	+1.50	+0.16	+0.30	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	15:03
72 Tage Thompson C	+1.67	+0.75	+0.34	+0.39	+0.15	+0.04	0.00	—	16:00
22 Jack Quinn R	+1.61	+0.55	+0.17	+0.89	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	14:21
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G	+1.43	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.43	59:41
4 Bowen Byram D	+1.33	+0.70	+0.15	+0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:45
91 Josh Doan R	+1.28	+0.70	+0.12	+0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:08
17 Jason Zucker L	+1.01	0.00	+0.08	+0.89	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	12:05
19 Peyton Krebs C	+0.84	+0.70	+0.15	-0.15	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	10:59
71 Ryan McLeod C	+0.61	0.00	+0.22	+0.35	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	20:21
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.52	+0.75	+0.45	-0.59	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	—	18:15
25 Owen Power D	+0.50	+0.70	+0.16	-0.32	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:59
86 Noah Ostlund C	+0.16	0.00	+0.18	-0.10	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	14:46
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.28	0.00	+0.08	-0.61	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	12:26
6 Zach Benson L	-0.33	+0.55	0.00	-0.74	-0.15	+0.01	0.00	—	13:39
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	-0.36	0.00	+0.06	-0.52	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	24:08
48 Tyson Kozak C	-0.54	0.00	0.00	-0.52	0.00	-0.03	+0.01	—	13:04
8 Michael Kesselring D	-0.90	0.00	0.00	-0.67	-0.22	0.00	0.00	—	8:40

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
77 Victor Hedman D	+2.07	+1.30	+0.11	+0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:53
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+1.93	+0.70	+0.31	+0.76	+0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	16:24
17 Dominic James C	+1.89	+0.75	+0.16	+0.79	+0.15	+0.04	0.00	—	13:06
31 Jonas Johansson G	+1.19	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.19	38:06
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.81	+0.70	+0.11	+0.13	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	21:18
38 Brandon Hagel L	+0.81	0.00	+0.56	+0.29	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	—	21:05
93 Gage Goncalves C	+0.56	0.00	+0.17	+0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:17
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.64	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	15:50
21 Brayden Point C	+0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.16	0.00	+0.02	+0.07	—	17:52
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+0.06	0.00	+0.05	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	13:52
78 Emil Lilleberg D	-0.04	0.00	+0.03	+0.05	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	16:45
81 Erik Cernak D	-0.22	0.00	+0.05	-0.34	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	14:39
86 Nikita Kucherov R	-0.31	0.00	+0.11	-0.40	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:11
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.34	0.00	+0.05	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:46
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.38	0.00	+0.05	-0.42	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	15:03
37 Yanni Gourde C	-0.41	0.00	+0.01	-0.48	+0.15	-0.06	-0.02	—	15:59
71 Anthony Cirelli C	-0.71	0.00	+0.24	-0.83	-0.15	+0.05	-0.02	—	14:01
59 Jake Guentzel C	-0.79	0.00	+0.22	-0.66	-0.30	0.00	-0.06	—	13:02
27 Ryan McDonagh D	-0.93	0.00	0.00	-0.93	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:16
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	-2.90	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-2.90	21:54

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.