Washington CapitalsWSH 1–4 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 100 1 23
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 022 4 22
Playoff odds, % Change
WSH -2.6
PHI +2.2

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 11, 2026 7:29 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:51 WSH Ryan Leonard (13)PP Alex Ovechkin (27), Pierre-Luc Dubois (3) · snap xG 0.07 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:23 PHI Travis Konecny (24) Travis Sanheim (21), Alex Bump (1) · snap xG 0.12 1–1 ▶
12:13 PHI Trevor Zegras (22) Owen Tippett (18), Carl Grundstrom (3) · wrist xG 0.18 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
7:17 PHI Jamie Drysdale (7) Noah Cates (21), Cam York (20) · wrist xG 0.08 1–3 ▶
18:57 PHI Owen Tippett (21)EN Christian Dvorak (25), Noah Cates (22) · wrist xG 0.62 1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 58%Deserve to win42% PHI
WSHPHI
2.97Expected goals3.63
1Goals (no shootout)4
2.05Expected goals, 5 on 52.01
70Shot attempts41
52Unblocked attempts30
23Shots on goal22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
3:06 PHI Deserve to win Deserve to win · PHI takes the lead, 61–39%
WSH had led since 3:44 of the 1st, by as much as 61%
3rd Period
17:28 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 3–1
With 2:32 left
18:01 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Thompson, down 3–1
With 1:59 left; PHI scored at 18:57 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots
Justin Sourdif: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:51) Brandon Duhaime: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:27) Trevor van Riemsdyk: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:45) Ethen Frank: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:46) Travis Sanheim: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:58) Dylan Strome: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:38) Aliaksei Protas: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 3:44) Owen Tippett: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 4:13) Carl Grundstrom: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:14) Travis Konecny: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:35) Travis Konecny: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:23) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:38) Justin Sourdif: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:48) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:07) Christian Dvorak: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:36) Dylan Strome: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:20) Pierre-Luc Dubois: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 9:41) Alex Bump: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:19) Luke Glendening: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:01) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:52) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:42) Pierre-Luc Dubois: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:02) Noah Juulsen: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:26) Trevor Zegras: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:00) Christian Dvorak: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:30) Christian Dvorak: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 0:32) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:33) Matvei Michkov: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:06) Ryan Leonard: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:04) Aliaksei Protas: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:35) Tom Wilson: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:53) Nikita Grebenkin: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:01) Martin Fehérváry: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:37) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:46) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 5:48) Carl Grundstrom: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 6:51) Ryan Leonard: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:08) Tom Wilson: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:18) Rasmus Sandin: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:01) Aliaksei Protas: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:40) Jamie Drysdale: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:49) Jamie Drysdale: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:59) Hendrix Lapierre: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 13:57) Rasmus Ristolainen: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:45) Matt Roy: wrist, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:09) Owen Tippett: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:05) Ryan Leonard: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:19) Tom Wilson: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:19) Ryan Leonard: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:45) Owen Tippett: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 4:54) Rasmus Sandin: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:07) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 6:31) Trevor Zegras: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:08) Cam York: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 7:10) Matt Roy: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:56) Tom Wilson: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:13) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:17) Dylan Strome: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 8:36) Jakob Chychrun: backhand, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:49) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:51) Tom Wilson: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:58) Ryan Leonard: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:19) Timothy Liljegren: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:42) Ethen Frank: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:03) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:04) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:05) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:05) Connor McMichael: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:31) Connor McMichael: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:32) Connor McMichael: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:52) Owen Tippett: deflected, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 13:44) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:53) Owen Tippett: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:58) Alex Bump: wrist, 105 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 17:30) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:37) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:38) Timothy Liljegren: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:19) Ryan Leonard: GOAL, snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 9:51) Travis Konecny: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:23) Trevor Zegras: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 12:13) Jamie Drysdale: GOAL, wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:17) Owen Tippett: GOAL, wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.62 (P3 18:57)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 -2 50.46 6121:39
17 Dylan Strome 000 -3 40.30 0018:38
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 011 -2 20.15 0118:10
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 -2 30.23 0018:03
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 80.41 1017:32
77 Connor McMichael 000 -1 40.13 0116:31
8 Alex Ovechkin 011 -1 80.46 2015:45
9 Ryan Leonard 101 -2 60.43 4014:35
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 0 10.00 1014:27
53 Ethen Frank 000 0 30.05 0108:46
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 20.01 3008:10
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 20.06 1006:55
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 000 -4 60.10 0024:44
3 Matt Roy 000 -1 40.08 1119:54
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -1 40.03 1019:19
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 0 10.02 0119:09
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 -1 20.02 0116:25
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 0 50.03 0414:48
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 21318 .857 2.53 -0.47

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Christian Dvorak 011 +1 30.41 0119:44
11 Travis Konecny 101 +1 30.22 1019:01
74 Owen Tippett 112 +2 91.18 2016:40
46 Trevor Zegras 101 +3 30.22 0116:22
14 Sean Couturier 000 0 00.00 2015:24
17 Nikita Grebenkin 000 0 10.11 1214:44
39 Matvei Michkov 000 0 10.10 0012:46
20 Alex Bump 011 0 30.55 0012:14
41 Luke Glendening 000 0 20.14 1112:10
91 Carl Grundstrom 011 +2 20.15 4012:00
86 Denver Barkey 000 0 00.00 1011:36
27 Noah Cates 022 +2 10.00 1211:28
Defense
6 Travis Sanheim 011 +3 10.05 0024:01
8 Cam York 011 +1 20.19 0223:10
9 Jamie Drysdale 101 +1 50.23 0021:59
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 +2 30.04 1521:51
24 Nick Seeler 000 0 10.00 0014:47
47 Noah Juulsen 000 +1 10.04 2211:15
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Samuel Ersson 23122 .957 2.97 +1.97

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 Alex Ovechkin L +1.45 +0.70 +0.30 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:45
34 Justin Sourdif C +0.86 0.00 +0.26 +0.63 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:32
43 Tom Wilson R +0.48 0.00 +0.30 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:39
9 Ryan Leonard R +0.47 +0.75 +0.28 -0.54 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:35
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois C +0.44 +0.55 +0.10 -0.31 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 — 18:10
38 Rasmus Sandin D +0.42 0.00 +0.02 +0.27 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:19
72 Anthony Beauvillier R +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.29 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 14:27
27 Timothy Liljegren D +0.22 0.00 +0.02 +0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 14:48
53 Ethen Frank R +0.17 0.00 +0.03 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:46
3 Matt Roy D +0.16 0.00 +0.05 +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:54
17 Dylan Strome C +0.11 0.00 +0.19 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:38
29 Hendrix Lapierre C +0.10 0.00 +0.04 -0.09 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 6:55
42 Martin Fehérváry D +0.08 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:09
22 Brandon Duhaime L -0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.24 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:10
21 Aliaksei Protas L -0.11 0.00 +0.15 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:03
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D -0.35 0.00 +0.01 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:25
24 Connor McMichael L -0.42 0.00 +0.08 -0.57 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 16:31
48 Logan Thompson G -0.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.47 58:30
6 Jakob Chychrun D -0.86 0.00 +0.07 -0.76 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 24:44

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 Owen Tippett R +2.82 +1.45 +0.77 +0.49 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 16:40
33 Samuel Ersson G +1.97 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.97 60:00
46 Trevor Zegras C +1.54 +0.75 +0.14 +0.65 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 16:22
91 Carl Grundstrom R +1.36 +0.55 +0.10 +0.70 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 12:00
27 Noah Cates L +1.35 +1.25 0.00 +0.01 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 11:28
11 Travis Konecny R +1.19 +0.75 +0.14 +0.30 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:01
20 Alex Bump L +1.06 +0.55 +0.36 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:14
22 Christian Dvorak C +1.02 +0.70 +0.27 +0.07 0.00 -0.03 +0.01 — 19:44
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.95 +0.70 +0.03 +0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 24:01
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.83 +0.75 +0.15 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:59
8 Cam York D +0.59 +0.55 +0.13 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:10
47 Noah Juulsen D +0.50 0.00 +0.03 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:15
24 Nick Seeler D +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:47
39 Matvei Michkov R -0.07 0.00 +0.06 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:46
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D -0.14 0.00 +0.02 -0.26 -0.15 0.00 +0.25 — 21:51
52 Denver Barkey C -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:36
41 Luke Glendening C -0.29 0.00 +0.09 -0.45 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 12:10
29 Nikita Grebenkin R -0.43 0.00 +0.07 -0.45 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:44
14 Sean Couturier C -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.46 -0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:24

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.