St. Louis BluesSTL 3–1 Final Carolina HurricanesCAR

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
St. Louis BluesSTL	0	1	2	3	17
Carolina HurricanesCAR	1	0	0	1	32

Playoff odds, %	Change
STL	+1.0
CAR	-0.0
NSH	-0.8
OTT	-0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:38	CAR	Mark Jankowski (7) Unassisted · snap xG 0.26	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
3:53	STL	Jimmy Snuggerud (14) Dylan Holloway (15), Cam Fowler (22) · snap xG 0.03	1–1 ▶
3rd Period
15:12	STL	Jimmy Snuggerud (15) Dylan Holloway (16), Robert Thomas (28) · snap xG 0.15	2–1 ▶
19:09	STL	Pavel Buchnevich (15)EN Jack Finley (3), Alexey Toropchenko (5) · wrist xG 0.66	3–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

STL 22%Deserve to win78% CAR

STL		CAR
2.29	Expected goals	3.23
3	Goals (no shootout)	1
1.51	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.38
35	Shot attempts	59
23	Unblocked attempts	48
17	Shots on goal	32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	CAR	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced STL 1.20–0.00 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:10 to 13:10 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
13:40	STL	Goalie	Goalie · Binnington +2.0 goals saved 1 goal on 3.04 xG, 28 shots on goal
17:15	CAR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Bussi, down 2–1 With 2:45 left; STL scored at 19:09 of the 3rd (3–1)

Shot map

STL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

St. Louis Blues

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
81	Dylan Holloway	0	2	2	+2	3	0.25	3	1	20:55
21	Jimmy Snuggerud	2	0	2	+2	6	0.37	0	0	20:02
18	Robert Thomas	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	1	18:41
89	Pavel Buchnevich	1	0	1	+1	4	0.68	0	1	17:24
22	Pius Suter	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	0	16:55
28	Otto Stenberg	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	0	12:51
63	Jake Neighbours	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	0	1	12:46
15	Dalibor Dvorsky	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	0	12:24
25	Jordan Kyrou	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	12:07
37	Jack Finley	0	1	1	0	1	0.25	1	0	11:33
26	Nathan Walker	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	3	0	11:25
13	Alexey Toropchenko	0	1	1	0	1	0.00	1	1	10:59
Defense
6	Philip Broberg	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	0	0	23:25
23	Logan Mailloux	0	0	0	+1	1	0.00	2	0	21:41
55	Colton Parayko	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	1	21:29
17	Cam Fowler	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	1	19:58
75	Tyler Tucker	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	16:46
4	Theo Lindstein	0	0	0	0	2	0.17	0	0	14:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jordan Binnington	32	1	31	.969	3.23	+2.23

Carolina Hurricanes

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
24	Seth Jarvis	0	0	0	-1	3	0.24	0	0	20:34
20	Sebastian Aho	0	0	0	-1	8	0.61	0	0	20:30
37	Andrei Svechnikov	0	0	0	-1	2	0.04	3	1	19:38
53	Jackson Blake	0	0	0	-1	5	0.37	0	1	17:59
22	Logan Stankoven	0	0	0	0	4	0.53	0	0	16:30
71	Taylor Hall	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	16:10
27	Nikolaj Ehlers	0	0	0	-2	3	0.05	0	1	15:02
11	Jordan Staal	0	0	0	-3	6	0.40	3	0	14:40
77	Mark Jankowski	1	0	1	+1	1	0.26	0	0	11:59
48	Jordan Martinook	0	0	0	-2	3	0.12	2	0	11:26
28	William Carrier	0	0	0	+1	6	0.18	1	0	10:54
50	Eric Robinson	0	0	0	+1	2	0.22	2	0	10:28
Defense
19	K'Andre Miller	0	0	0	0	3	0.01	1	1	23:07
26	Sean Walker	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	2	1	21:30
74	Jaccob Slavin	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	0	3	19:41
5	Jalen Chatfield	0	0	0	-2	2	0.02	1	1	18:48
21	Alexander Nikishin	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	0	1	16:59
6	Mike Reilly	0	0	0	+1	3	0.04	1	2	14:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Brandon Bussi	16	2	14	.875	1.63	-0.37

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

St. Louis Blues

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
50 Jordan Binnington G	+2.23	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.23	59:40
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R	+1.75	+1.50	+0.24	+0.09	0.00	-0.03	-0.04	—	20:03
81 Dylan Holloway L	+1.42	+1.40	+0.16	-0.18	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:55
89 Pavel Buchnevich L	+0.97	+0.75	+0.45	-0.27	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	17:23
17 Cam Fowler D	+0.66	+0.55	0.00	+0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	19:58
18 Robert Thomas C	+0.59	+0.55	0.00	+0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:41
63 Jake Neighbours L	+0.32	0.00	+0.10	+0.19	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	12:46
37 Jack Finley C	+0.07	+0.70	+0.16	-0.68	-0.15	+0.04	0.00	—	11:33
13 Alexey Toropchenko R	+0.05	+0.55	0.00	-0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:59
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R	+0.03	0.00	+0.06	+0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	—	12:24
25 Jordan Kyrou R	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:07
75 Tyler Tucker D	-0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.07	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:46
41 Theo Lindstein D	-0.06	0.00	+0.11	+0.01	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	14:59
28 Otto Stenberg C	-0.20	0.00	+0.07	-0.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:51
22 Pius Suter C	-0.24	0.00	+0.03	-0.28	0.00	+0.03	-0.02	—	16:55
55 Colton Parayko D	-0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.38	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:29
26 Nathan Walker L	-0.33	0.00	+0.11	-0.56	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	11:25
23 Logan Mailloux D	-0.55	0.00	0.00	-0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	21:41
6 Philip Broberg D	-0.61	0.00	0.00	-0.57	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	23:25

Carolina Hurricanes

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
77 Mark Jankowski L	+1.45	+0.75	+0.17	+0.53	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:59
19 K'Andre Miller D	+1.29	0.00	+0.01	+1.21	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	23:07
28 William Carrier L	+1.20	0.00	+0.11	+0.94	+0.15	-0.01	0.00	—	10:54
20 Sebastian Aho C	+0.98	0.00	+0.40	+0.57	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	20:30
22 Logan Stankoven C	+0.86	0.00	+0.35	+0.39	+0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	16:30
37 Andrei Svechnikov R	+0.82	0.00	+0.02	+0.77	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	19:38
26 Sean Walker D	+0.73	0.00	+0.04	+0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	21:30
24 Seth Jarvis C	+0.72	0.00	+0.15	+0.59	0.00	+0.01	-0.04	—	20:34
50 Eric Robinson L	+0.69	0.00	+0.14	+0.55	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:28
53 Jackson Blake R	+0.49	0.00	+0.24	+0.21	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	17:59
21 Alexander Nikishin D	+0.36	0.00	+0.03	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:59
6 Mike Reilly D	+0.28	0.00	+0.02	+0.31	-0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	14:08
71 Taylor Hall L	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	-0.22	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	16:10
74 Jaccob Slavin D	-0.23	0.00	+0.01	-0.43	0.00	0.00	+0.19	—	19:41
5 Jalen Chatfield D	-0.33	0.00	+0.01	-0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:48
32 Brandon Bussi G	-0.37	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.37	57:57
11 Jordan Staal C	-0.45	0.00	+0.26	-0.69	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:40
48 Jordan Martinook L	-0.46	0.00	+0.08	-0.54	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:26
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L	-0.61	0.00	+0.03	-0.68	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:02

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.