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New York IslandersNYI 2–3 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
New York IslandersNYI 011 2 19
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 012 3 27
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT +9.0
NYI -7.5
DET -0.7
BOS -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 5:27 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
4:45 NYI Matthew Schaefer (21) Ryan Pulock (22), Bo Horvat (20) · tip-in xG 0.02 1–0 ▶
10:27 OTT Shane Pinto (18)SH Tyler Kleven (11), Nikolas Matinpalo (5) · wrist xG 0.07 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:02 NYI Brayden Schenn (14) Simon Holmstrom (20), Scott Mayfield (9) · slap xG 0.11 2–1 ▶
5:12 OTT Warren Foegele (10) Fabian Zetterlund (14), Dennis Gilbert (1) · backhand xG 0.41 2–2 ▶
19:47 OTT Brady Tkachuk (19) Jordan Spence (17), Drake Batherson (33) · wrist xG 0.20 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

NYI 23%Deserve to win77% OTT
NYIOTT
1.60Expected goals3.27
2Goals (no shootout)3
1.02Expected goals, 5 on 52.11
45Shot attempts58
28Unblocked attempts47
19Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
3:20 NYI No shift No shift · Duclair, 14:04 on the bench
No shift from 6:41 of the 2nd to 7:16 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:57) before that
19:47 NYI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Sorokin, down 3–2
With 0:13 left; OTT scored at 19:47 of the 3rd (2–3)

Shot map

NYI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Anthony Duclair: wrist, 89 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:35) Lars Eller: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:48) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:47) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 178 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:35) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 8:33) Dylan Cozens: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:44) Scott Mayfield: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:10) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:18) Anthony Duclair: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:23) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:47) Dylan Cozens: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:48) Dylan Cozens: tip-in, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:31) Emil Heineman: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:43) Nick Cousins: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:30) Drake Batherson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:05) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:39) Shane Pinto: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:34) Nick Cousins: wrap-around, 3 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:36) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:55) Carson Soucy: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:24) Jordan Spence: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:41) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:45) Mathew Barzal: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:26) Emil Heineman: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:38) Tim Stützle: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 2:07) Simon Holmstrom: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 3:02) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:30) Ridly Greig: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:54) Bo Horvat: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:38) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:55) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:33) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:22) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:14) Dylan Cozens: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:04) Dylan Cozens: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:41) Drake Batherson: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 11:43) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:44) Drake Batherson: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:45) Brady Tkachuk: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:46) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:03) Tim Stützle: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:25) Tim Stützle: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:32) Ridly Greig: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:14) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:43) Anders Lee: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:17) Adam Pelech: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 16:33) Bo Horvat: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:14) Brayden Schenn: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:40) Brayden Schenn: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:41) Artem Zub: wrist, 162 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:48) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 19:58) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:39) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:07) Dylan Cozens: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:33) Shane Pinto: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:50) Fabian Zetterlund: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 5:09) Ondrej Palat: backhand, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:12) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 9:28) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:04) Fabian Zetterlund: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:28) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:32) Warren Foegele: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:37) Fabian Zetterlund: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:59) Thomas Chabot: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:52) Michael Amadio: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 16:10) Lars Eller: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:35) Thomas Chabot: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:12) Jordan Spence: slap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:45) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 110 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 19:49) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:56) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, tip-in, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:45) Shane Pinto: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:27) Brayden Schenn: GOAL, slap, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:02) Warren Foegele: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.41 (P3 5:12) Brady Tkachuk: GOAL, wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 19:47)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 011 +1 20.25 1022:39
13 Mathew Barzal 000 +1 40.08 0021:48
51 Emil Heineman 000 0 30.16 4019:48
92 Simon Holmstrom 011 -2 30.15 0018:17
72 Anders Lee 000 -2 10.05 2016:01
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -1 10.07 0115:53
64 Calum Ritchie 000 0 00.00 0014:03
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.28 2012:46
10 Brayden Schenn 101 0 30.32 0011:59
11 Anthony Duclair 000 0 30.01 1309:51
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 30.02 1309:47
81 Ondrej Palat 000 -1 10.02 2109:46
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 101 +2 40.05 1024:11
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 -2 30.02 1022:30
3 Adam Pelech 000 -1 40.05 1121:18
6 Ryan Pulock 011 +2 20.00 0017:57
7 Carson Soucy 000 -1 30.02 1113:59
24 Scott Mayfield 011 -1 30.02 2013:33
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 27324 .889 3.15 +0.15

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
22 Michael Amadio 000 0 10.16 3120:13
18 Tim Stützle 000 0 30.34 1019:54
12 Shane Pinto 101 +1 30.19 2019:27
24 Dylan Cozens 000 +1 90.57 3117:14
8 Brady Tkachuk 101 +1 80.57 3016:48
71 Ridly Greig 000 0 20.05 0016:06
21 Nick Cousins 000 0 30.09 3212:37
19 Drake Batherson 011 0 30.45 1012:23
28 Claude Giroux 000 0 00.00 1011:29
20 Lars Eller 000 -1 20.04 1010:40
37 Warren Foegele 101 0 20.43 2109:26
20 Fabian Zetterlund 011 0 40.17 2108:55
Defense
72 Thomas Chabot 000 +1 60.15 0230:53
2 Artem Zub 000 0 20.00 2422:07
43 Tyler Kleven 011 -1 50.04 3021:06
10 Jordan Spence 011 0 40.03 1120:54
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 011 +1 10.00 1112:44
44 Dennis Gilbert 011 +1 00.00 0309:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
James Reimer 19217 .895 1.60 -0.40

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.76 +0.75 +0.03 -0.17 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 24:11
6 Ryan Pulock D +0.62 +0.70 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:57
53 Casey Cizikas C +0.40 0.00 +0.18 +0.18 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 12:46
10 Brayden Schenn C +0.40 +0.75 +0.21 -0.54 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 11:59
14 Bo Horvat C +0.37 +0.55 +0.16 -0.19 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:39
30 Ilya Sorokin G +0.15 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.15 59:54
11 Anthony Duclair L +0.11 0.00 +0.01 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 9:51
81 Ondrej Palat L +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 9:46
92 Simon Holmstrom R +0.08 +0.70 +0.10 -0.89 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 18:17
13 Mathew Barzal C +0.04 0.00 +0.05 -0.14 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:48
24 Scott Mayfield D +0.03 +0.55 +0.01 -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:33
51 Emil Heineman L -0.12 0.00 +0.11 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:48
3 Adam Pelech D -0.16 0.00 +0.03 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:18
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:03
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.33 0.00 +0.02 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 9:47
27 Anders Lee L -0.58 0.00 +0.03 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 16:01
77 Tony DeAngelo D -0.58 0.00 +0.02 -0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:30
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.58 0.00 +0.05 -0.60 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 15:53
4 Carson Soucy D -0.85 0.00 +0.02 -0.77 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:59

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
7 Brady Tkachuk L +1.96 +0.75 +0.37 +0.85 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:48
10 Jordan Spence D +1.77 +0.70 +0.02 +1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:54
37 Warren Foegele L +1.48 +0.75 +0.28 +0.41 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 9:26
6 Dennis Gilbert D +1.40 +0.55 0.00 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 9:04
20 Fabian Zetterlund L +1.38 +0.70 +0.11 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:55
19 Drake Batherson R +1.32 +0.55 +0.29 +0.37 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 12:23
12 Shane Pinto C +1.24 +0.75 +0.12 +0.36 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:27
24 Dylan Cozens C +1.19 0.00 +0.37 +0.93 -0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 17:14
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.95 +0.55 0.00 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:44
18 Tim Stützle C +0.90 0.00 +0.22 +0.59 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 19:54
72 Thomas Chabot D +0.87 0.00 +0.10 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 30:53
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.50 +0.70 +0.02 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:06
71 Ridly Greig C +0.43 0.00 +0.03 +0.38 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 16:06
22 Michael Amadio R +0.27 0.00 +0.10 +0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:13
21 Nick Cousins C -0.06 0.00 +0.06 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 12:37
2 Artem Zub D -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.18 -0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 22:07
28 Claude Giroux R -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.26 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 11:29
47 James Reimer G -0.40 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.40 60:00
89 Lars Eller C -0.74 0.00 +0.03 -0.61 -0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 10:40

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.