| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:36 | Ryan Leonard (15) Brandon Duhaime (4), Trevor van Riemsdyk (9) · snap xG 0.07 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| No scoring | |||
| 3rd Period | |||
| 18:17 | Aliaksei Protas (23)EN Pierre-Luc Dubois (5), Tom Wilson (27) · wrist xG 0.56 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 19:17 | Jesper Bratt (17) Jack Hughes (37) · snap xG 0.16 | 1–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| NJD | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.89 | Expected goals | 3.47 |
| 1 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 1.81 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.34 |
| 68 | Shot attempts | 55 |
| 53 | Unblocked attempts | 41 |
| 31 | Shots on goal | 28 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 3rd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 5:32 | NJD | Deserve to win | Deserve to win · NJD takes the lead, 60–40%
WSH had led since 18:01 of the 1st, by as much as 77% |
| 5:32 | WSH | Goalie | Goalie · Thompson +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.01 xG, 20 shots on goal |
| 6:40 | NJD | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.34–0.24
In xG over 10 minutes, 16:40 of the 2nd to 6:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored |
| 17:56 | NJD | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Allen, down 1–0
With 2:04 left; WSH scored at 18:17 of the 3rd (0–2) |
| 18:00 | NJD | Shortened bench | Shortened bench · 3 forwards sat
Cotter, Tsyplakov and Bjugstad: no shift after 4:44 of the 3rd |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 86 | Jack Hughes | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 | 26:18 |
| 16 | Connor Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.44 | 1 | 0 | 23:04 |
| 13 | Nico Hischier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.65 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 |
| 63 | Jesper Bratt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 |
| 28 | Timo Meier | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 1 | 0 | 18:41 |
| 91 | Dawson Mercer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.29 | 1 | 1 | 15:37 |
| 81 | Arseny Gritsyuk | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 7 | 0.31 | 2 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 12 | Cody Glass | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 12:22 |
| 29 | Lenni Hameenaho | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 |
| 72 | Maxim Tsyplakov | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 06:59 |
| 47 | Paul Cotter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 06:55 |
| 72 | Nick Bjugstad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 2 | 0 | 06:49 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 43 | Luke Hughes | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.07 | 1 | 1 | 23:51 |
| 7 | Dougie Hamilton | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 0.17 | 2 | 1 | 23:37 |
| 71 | Simon Nemec | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.14 | 0 | 4 | 20:32 |
| 5 | Brenden Dillon | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.02 | 4 | 2 | 16:18 |
| 71 | Jonas Siegenthaler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 0 | 3 | 15:37 |
| 8 | Johnathan Kovacevic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.05 | 2 | 2 | 15:10 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen | 27 | 1 | 26 | .963 | 2.66 | +1.66 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 21 | Aliaksei Protas | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.84 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 |
| 72 | Anthony Beauvillier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.47 | 2 | 0 | 17:49 |
| 80 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 |
| 43 | Tom Wilson | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 0.03 | 3 | 2 | 17:21 |
| 77 | Connor McMichael | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 |
| 34 | Justin Sourdif | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 14:51 |
| 17 | Dylan Strome | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 14:10 |
| 9 | Ryan Leonard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 1 | 14:08 |
| 8 | Alex Ovechkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 |
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.37 | 1 | 0 | 11:51 |
| 53 | Ethen Frank | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 0 | 11:23 |
| 22 | Hendrix Lapierre | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 6 | Jakob Chychrun | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 1 | 21:46 |
| 42 | Martin Fehérváry | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 21:22 |
| 3 | Matt Roy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 1 | 19:56 |
| 38 | Rasmus Sandin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 19:14 |
| 57 | Trevor van Riemsdyk | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 1 | 18:47 |
| 44 | Cole Hutson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 4 | 0 | 17:04 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | 31 | 1 | 30 | .968 | 2.89 | +1.89 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 Jake Allen G | +1.66 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.66 | 58:21 |
| 13 Nico Hischier C | +0.84 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.41 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 21:15 |
| 63 Jesper Bratt L | +0.73 | +0.75 | +0.20 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 20:04 |
| 91 Dawson Mercer C | +0.52 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:37 |
| 71 Jonas Siegenthaler D | +0.44 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 15:37 |
| 17 Simon Nemec D | +0.38 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 20:32 |
| 28 Timo Meier R | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:41 |
| 86 Jack Hughes C | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.15 | -0.65 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 26:18 |
| 7 Dougie Hamilton D | -0.07 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 23:37 |
| 81 Arseny Gritsyuk R | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.20 | -0.43 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:09 |
| 47 Paul Cotter L | -0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 6:55 |
| 29 Lenni Hameenaho R | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.34 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:21 |
| 16 Connor Brown R | -0.12 | 0.00 | +0.29 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 23:04 |
| 43 Luke Hughes D | -0.20 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 23:51 |
| 72 Nick Bjugstad C | -0.24 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.24 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 6:49 |
| 42 Maxim Tsyplakov R | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 6:59 |
| 12 Cody Glass C | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.47 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 12:22 |
| 8 Johnathan Kovacevic D | -0.60 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.59 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 15:10 |
| 5 Brenden Dillon D | -0.81 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 16:18 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Logan Thompson G | +1.89 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.89 | 59:52 |
| 22 Brandon Duhaime L | +1.61 | +0.70 | +0.24 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 11:51 |
| 21 Aliaksei Protas L | +1.30 | +0.75 | +0.55 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 18:15 |
| 57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D | +1.17 | +0.55 | +0.06 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 | — | 18:47 |
| 9 Ryan Leonard R | +1.12 | +0.75 | +0.18 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 14:08 |
| 29 Hendrix Lapierre C | +1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 11:02 |
| 6 Jakob Chychrun D | +0.84 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 21:46 |
| 38 Rasmus Sandin D | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 19:14 |
| 80 Pierre-Luc Dubois C | +0.66 | +0.70 | +0.04 | -0.09 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.02 | — | 17:24 |
| 53 Ethen Frank R | +0.60 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.51 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:23 |
| 8 Alex Ovechkin L | +0.49 | 0.00 | +0.19 | +0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:29 |
| 43 Tom Wilson R | +0.49 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.01 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 17:21 |
| 17 Dylan Strome C | +0.37 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.31 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 14:10 |
| 24 Connor McMichael L | +0.31 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.01 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | — | 16:16 |
| 72 Anthony Beauvillier R | +0.21 | 0.00 | +0.30 | -0.26 | +0.15 | +0.02 | 0.00 | — | 17:49 |
| 3 Matt Roy D | -0.08 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 19:56 |
| 42 Martin Fehérváry D | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 21:22 |
| 44 Cole Hutson D | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:04 |
| 34 Justin Sourdif C | -0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.10 | — | 14:51 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.