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Detroit Red WingsDET 1–5 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET 010 1 23
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 311 5 32
Playoff odds, % Change
DET -10.2
PIT +7.1
OTT +3.1
BOS +0.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 31, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:10 PIT Rickard Rakell (20) Sidney Crosby (39), Egor Chinakhov (16) · wrist xG 0.05 0–1 ▶
8:34 PIT Anthony Mantha (30) Evgeni Malkin (38), Connor Dewar (15) · wrist xG 0.26 0–2 ▶
18:02 PIT Egor Chinakhov (18) Kris Letang (28) · wrist xG 0.06 0–3 ▶
2nd Period
3:17 DET Dylan Larkin (30)PP Patrick Kane (34) · wrist xG 0.28 1–3 ▶
12:23 PIT Justin Brazeau (17) Connor Clifton (4) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
12:09 PIT Noel Acciari (11) Ryan Shea (25), Elmer Soderblom (4) · wrist xG 0.17 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 30%Deserve to win70% PIT
DETPIT
2.98Expected goals4.33
1Goals (no shootout)5
2.42Expected goals, 5 on 53.11
57Shot attempts66
42Unblocked attempts53
23Shots on goal32

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 DET Goalie change Goalie change · Talbot in for Gibson
The start of the 2nd; Gibson had allowed 3 goals on 14 shots (1.45 xG)
2nd Period
2:20 DET No shift No shift · Mazur, 10:06 on the bench
No shift from 10:13 of the 1st to 2:25 of the 2nd; 3 shifts (2:05) before that

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Erik Karlsson: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:39) Justin Faulk: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:16) J.T. Compher: poke, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:04) Marco Kasper: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:38) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:08) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:48) Tommy Novak: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.33 (P1 5:53) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:57) Avery Hayes: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:16) Marco Kasper: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:24) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 6:57) Evgeni Malkin: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:18) Anthony Mantha: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:28) Connor Dewar: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:29) Justin Faulk: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:37) Mason Appleton: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:13) Samuel Girard: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:33) Alex DeBrincat: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:13) Patrick Kane: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:21) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:55) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:03) Anthony Mantha: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:36) Erik Karlsson: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 16:43) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:26) Alex DeBrincat: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:21) Marco Kasper: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:59) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:15) Moritz Seider: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:39) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:46) Patrick Kane: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:15) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:27) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:37) Ryan Shea: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:42) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:21) Ben Kindel: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:58) Alex DeBrincat: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 8:10) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:39) Albert Johansson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:27) Elmer Soderblom: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 10:27) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:56) Connor Dewar: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:03) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:09) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:16) Moritz Seider: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 11:57) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:42) Erik Karlsson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:53) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:04) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 13:13) Simon Edvinsson: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:12) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:45) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:09) Connor Dewar: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:50) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 18:29) Moritz Seider: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:54) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 18:57) David Perron: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 19:47) Andrew Copp: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:53) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:56) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:17) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:01) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:51) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 1:59) Lucas Raymond: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 2:09) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:08) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:22) Ben Chiarot: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:37) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:45) Andrew Copp: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:43) Andrew Copp: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:44) Justin Faulk: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:46) Lucas Raymond: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:08) David Perron: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:13) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 7:23) Alex DeBrincat: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:24) Mason Appleton: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:31) Albert Johansson: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:47) Simon Edvinsson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:45) Erik Karlsson: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:01) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:02) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:08) Evgeni Malkin: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:44) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:59) Anthony Mantha: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:39) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:56) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:07) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:19) Dylan Larkin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:11) Patrick Kane: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:50) Moritz Seider: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:00) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:10) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 8:34) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 18:02) Dylan Larkin: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 3:17) Justin Brazeau: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:23) Noel Acciari: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 12:09)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Alex DeBrincat 000 -1 120.80 0018:26
88 Patrick Kane 011 -1 40.16 1017:41
18 Andrew Copp 000 -1 40.24 4017:34
22 Mason Appleton 000 -1 20.17 4116:33
71 Dylan Larkin 101 -1 40.40 5014:10
92 Marco Kasper 000 -1 40.18 5013:57
23 Lucas Raymond 000 -3 40.17 2113:54
37 J.T. Compher 000 -2 10.08 0013:48
21 James van Riemsdyk 000 -1 00.00 0013:26
58 Emmitt Finnie 000 -1 10.00 1013:12
16 David Perron 000 -2 20.21 1112:17
34 Carter Mazur 000 0 00.00 0006:54
Defense
72 Justin Faulk 000 -2 30.14 2222:40
77 Simon Edvinsson 000 -2 30.06 1522:09
53 Moritz Seider 000 -3 50.16 3121:51
8 Ben Chiarot 000 -2 40.07 3219:29
20 Albert Johansson 000 -1 20.15 0019:14
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker 000 0 20.00 0014:47
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
John Gibson 14311 .786 1.45 -1.55
Cam Talbot 18216 .889 2.87 +0.87

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
87 Sidney Crosby 011 +1 10.03 4118:10
67 Rickard Rakell 101 +1 40.31 1018:02
71 Evgeni Malkin 011 +1 80.54 0017:35
39 Anthony Mantha 101 +1 60.78 1317:09
59 Egor Chinakhov 112 +2 80.48 0117:05
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 30.41 0116:05
25 Elmer Soderblom 011 +1 40.25 1014:39
52 Noel Acciari 101 +1 40.41 1014:32
81 Ben Kindel 000 +2 10.12 0114:12
19 Connor Dewar 011 +2 40.19 1013:57
16 Justin Brazeau 101 +2 30.32 3111:43
85 Avery Hayes 000 +1 20.02 2009:40
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 +1 90.19 1222:48
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 +1 40.22 1020:31
58 Kris Letang 011 +1 10.00 0119:19
49 Samuel Girard 000 +1 10.02 0017:58
6 Ryan Shea 011 +3 30.03 0117:20
75 Connor Clifton 011 +3 00.00 2117:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 23122 .957 2.98 +1.98

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Alex DeBrincat R +1.70 0.00 +0.52 +1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:26
88 Patrick Kane R +1.26 +0.70 +0.11 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:41
18 Andrew Copp C +0.99 0.00 +0.15 +0.82 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 17:34
39 Cam Talbot G +0.87 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.87 39:58
71 Dylan Larkin C +0.16 +0.75 +0.26 -0.71 -0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 14:10
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:47
77 Simon Edvinsson D -0.09 0.00 +0.04 -0.51 +0.15 0.00 +0.23 — 22:09
8 Ben Chiarot D -0.15 0.00 +0.04 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 19:29
34 Carter Mazur L -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:54
53 Moritz Seider D -0.43 0.00 +0.10 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:51
57 David Perron L -0.44 0.00 +0.13 -0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 12:17
22 Mason Appleton C -0.53 0.00 +0.11 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:33
37 J.T. Compher L -0.58 0.00 +0.05 -0.59 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 13:48
20 Albert Johansson D -0.65 0.00 +0.10 -0.72 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:14
23 Lucas Raymond L -0.74 0.00 +0.11 -0.90 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:54
72 Justin Faulk D -0.86 0.00 +0.09 -1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:40
92 Marco Kasper C -0.88 0.00 +0.12 -0.96 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 — 13:57
58 Emmitt Finnie C -0.90 0.00 0.00 -0.89 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:12
21 James van Riemsdyk L -1.30 0.00 0.00 -1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:26
36 John Gibson G -1.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.55 20:00

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Anthony Mantha R +2.46 +0.75 +0.50 +1.22 -0.15 +0.01 +0.13 — 17:09
71 Evgeni Malkin C +2.31 +0.70 +0.35 +1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:32
74 Stuart Skinner G +1.98 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.98 60:00
75 Connor Clifton D +1.97 +0.70 0.00 +1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:10
5 Ryan Shea D +1.95 +0.70 +0.02 +1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:20
59 Egor Chinakhov R +1.93 +1.30 +0.32 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:05
19 Connor Dewar C +1.66 +0.55 +0.12 +0.90 +0.15 -0.04 -0.02 — 13:57
55 Noel Acciari C +1.38 +0.75 +0.27 +0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:32
25 Elmer Soderblom L +1.31 +0.55 +0.16 +0.42 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 14:42
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.08 +0.75 +0.20 +0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:02
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.03 +0.70 +0.02 +0.21 0.00 +0.03 +0.07 — 18:10
58 Kris Letang D +0.92 +0.70 0.00 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:19
18 Tommy Novak C +0.87 0.00 +0.26 +0.58 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 16:05
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.83 +0.75 +0.21 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:43
65 Erik Karlsson D +0.28 0.00 +0.12 +0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:48
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.24 0.00 +0.15 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:31
49 Samuel Girard D +0.21 0.00 +0.01 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:58
81 Ben Kindel C -0.09 0.00 +0.08 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 14:12
85 Avery Hayes R -0.44 0.00 +0.01 -0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 9:40

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.