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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 3–6 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Thursday, April 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 201 3 24
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 132 6 33
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -2.2
TBL +0.0
PHI +0.8
CBJ +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 2, 2026 6:44 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:06 TBL Anthony Cirelli (21) Gage Goncalves (19) · snap xG 0.38 0–1 ▶
7:01 PIT Rickard Rakell (21) Samuel Girard (13), Kris Letang (29) · snap xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
16:10 PIT Egor Chinakhov (19) Bryan Rust (35), Samuel Girard (14) · backhand xG 0.03 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:11 TBL Anthony Cirelli (22)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.28 2–2 ▶
14:08 TBL Brayden Point (18) Jake Guentzel (46), Nikita Kucherov (82) · wrist xG 0.23 2–3 ▶
19:05 TBL Zemgus Girgensons (9) Yanni Gourde (19), Ryan McDonagh (11) · backhand xG 0.10 2–4 ▶
3rd Period
13:50 TBL Nikita Kucherov (41) Charle-Edouard D'Astous (23), Jake Guentzel (47) · wrist xG 0.03 2–5 ▶
15:33 TBL Anthony Cirelli (23)EN Gage Goncalves (20), Nikita Kucherov (83) · wrist xG 0.71 2–6 ▶
19:58 PIT Egor Chinakhov (20)PP Kris Letang (30), Anthony Mantha (29) · snap xG 0.09 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 17%Deserve to win83% TBL
PITTBL
1.97Expected goals4.87
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.79Expected goals, 5 on 53.19
46Shot attempts67
36Unblocked attempts48
24Shots on goal33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
14:41 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 5–2
With 5:19 left

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Darren Raddysh: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:35) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:56) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:06) Corey Perry: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:17) Nick Paul: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 3:41) Erik Karlsson: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:24) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 4:33) Jake Guentzel: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:34) Emil Lilleberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:37) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:45) Gage Goncalves: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:03) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:48) Nikita Kucherov: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:40) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:51) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:52) Anthony Mantha: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:13) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:29) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 12:16) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:51) Bryan Rust: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:00) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:18) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:26) Erik Karlsson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 15:33) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:55) Ben Kindel: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:23) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:10) Darren Raddysh: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:32) Connor Dewar: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:33) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:50) Brayden Point: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:23) Connor Clifton: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:04) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:21) Darren Raddysh: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:13) Anthony Mantha: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:26) Pontus Holmberg: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:40) Yanni Gourde: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 3:50) Ryan Shea: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:48) Erik Karlsson: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 5:30) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:19) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 12:02) Connor Clifton: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:18) Justin Brazeau: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 13:43) Jake Guentzel: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 14:04) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:06) Zemgus Girgensons: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:03) Yanni Gourde: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:34) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:49) Samuel Girard: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 17:13) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 174 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:04) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:57) Anthony Mantha: backhand, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:42) Ryan Shea: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:48) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:24) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:16) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 1:47) Yanni Gourde: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 3:33) Oliver Bjorkstrand: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:11) Samuel Girard: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:57) J.J. Moser: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:57) Jake Guentzel: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 6:07) Jake Guentzel: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 6:08) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:17) Jake Guentzel: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:07) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:42) Ryan Shea: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:28) Nikita Kucherov: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 11:39) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:00) Erik Cernak: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 12:14) Brayden Point: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:15) Erik Karlsson: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:33) Egor Chinakhov: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:06) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:22) Mitchell Chaffee: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 14:07) Corey Perry: bat, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:40) Tommy Novak: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:07) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.38 (P1 5:06) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, snap, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:01) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:10) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 0:11) Brayden Point: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 14:08) Zemgus Girgensons: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:05) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:50) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.71 (P3 15:33) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
87 Sidney Crosby 000 -2 00.00 0219:43
67 Rickard Rakell 101 -2 50.17 1018:24
71 Evgeni Malkin 000 -1 20.27 2118:18
17 Bryan Rust 011 -2 30.07 1218:05
59 Egor Chinakhov 202 -1 80.31 1017:55
18 Tommy Novak 000 +2 10.03 1014:03
39 Anthony Mantha 011 -2 30.15 0013:35
19 Connor Dewar 000 -1 20.01 1013:11
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 00.00 1012:21
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 10.02 0111:35
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 0 10.08 2010:41
16 Justin Brazeau 000 -2 10.02 4109:53
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 000 -4 70.45 0123:48
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 -2 20.01 3120:00
58 Kris Letang 022 +2 20.00 2019:40
49 Samuel Girard 022 +1 20.24 0618:20
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 20.07 2316:52
6 Ryan Shea 000 -1 40.06 0016:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 32527 .844 4.16 -0.84

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 022 +1 110.64 3021:00
86 Nikita Kucherov 123 +3 60.54 0120:45
21 Brayden Point 101 +2 60.44 0017:59
37 Yanni Gourde 011 0 40.49 0115:43
93 Gage Goncalves 022 +2 10.05 1015:29
71 Anthony Cirelli 303 +3 41.43 0115:08
28 Zemgus Girgensons 101 0 60.24 4014:50
90 Corey Perry 000 0 20.10 0012:26
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 30.00 0011:33
20 Nick Paul 000 -2 20.14 0010:50
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 +1 30.09 0109:28
26 Mitchell Chaffee 000 -2 10.25 3209:21
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 +1 80.23 1021:42
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 011 +1 50.10 1020:56
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 0 10.00 3020:18
90 J.J. Moser 000 0 10.01 1018:51
27 Ryan McDonagh 011 +2 20.00 0318:04
81 Erik Cernak 000 +2 10.13 1117:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 24321 .875 1.97 -1.03

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
49 Samuel Girard D +1.90 +1.25 +0.15 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.30 — 18:20
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.58 +0.75 +0.11 +0.59 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:24
58 Kris Letang D +1.50 +1.25 0.00 +0.16 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 20:04
71 Evgeni Malkin C +0.55 0.00 +0.18 +0.51 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 18:18
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.50 +1.50 +0.20 -1.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:19
17 Bryan Rust R +0.42 +0.70 +0.04 -0.58 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 18:05
18 Tommy Novak C +0.36 0.00 +0.02 +0.27 0.00 +0.05 +0.02 — 14:27
55 Noel Acciari C +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 12:21
25 Elmer Soderblom L +0.04 0.00 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:41
81 Ben Kindel C -0.56 0.00 +0.01 -0.57 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 11:59
65 Erik Karlsson D -0.78 0.00 +0.29 -1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:48
19 Connor Dewar C -0.80 0.00 0.00 -0.69 -0.15 +0.04 0.00 — 13:11
75 Connor Clifton D -0.84 0.00 +0.05 -0.89 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 16:52
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.84 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.84 59:23
39 Anthony Mantha R -0.85 +0.55 +0.10 -1.49 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 13:59
28 Parker Wotherspoon D -0.96 0.00 +0.01 -1.00 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:00
87 Sidney Crosby C -0.99 0.00 0.00 -1.15 0.00 +0.06 +0.10 — 19:43
5 Ryan Shea D -1.00 0.00 +0.04 -1.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:13
16 Justin Brazeau R -1.14 0.00 +0.01 -1.20 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:53

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Anthony Cirelli C +3.66 +2.25 +0.93 +0.48 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 15:08
86 Nikita Kucherov R +2.49 +1.85 +0.35 +0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 20:45
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.15 +1.25 +0.42 +0.51 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 21:24
93 Gage Goncalves C +1.85 +1.40 +0.03 +0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 15:43
37 Yanni Gourde C +1.64 +0.70 +0.32 +0.61 0.00 -0.06 +0.07 — 15:43
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D +1.59 +0.70 +0.06 +0.98 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:58
21 Brayden Point C +1.58 +0.75 +0.29 +0.58 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 17:59
27 Ryan McDonagh D +1.53 +0.55 0.00 +0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:04
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +1.48 +0.75 +0.15 +0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:50
81 Erik Cernak D +1.23 0.00 +0.09 +1.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:21
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +1.10 0.00 +0.06 +0.70 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 9:28
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:33
41 Mitchell Chaffee R +0.40 0.00 +0.16 +0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 9:23
10 Corey Perry R +0.33 0.00 +0.06 +0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:26
90 J.J. Moser D +0.25 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:13
43 Darren Raddysh D +0.21 0.00 +0.15 +0.38 -0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 21:42
20 Nick Paul L +0.21 0.00 +0.09 +0.17 0.00 -0.04 0.00 — 11:00
78 Emil Lilleberg D +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.28 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:42
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -1.03 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.03 58:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.