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Carolina HurricanesCAR 2–3 Final/SO Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Monday, April 13, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 20000 2 26
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 02001 3 23
Playoff odds, % Change
PHI +21.7
CAR +0.0
WSH -15.5
CBJ -6.1

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 13, 2026 6:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
8:41 CAR Bradly Nadeau (3) Nikolaj Ehlers (45), Sean Walker (22) · wrist xG 0.16 1–0 ▶
15:30 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (25)PP Logan Stankoven (22), Jackson Blake (31) · wrist xG 0.08 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
7:57 PHI Matvei Michkov (19) Denver Barkey (12), Noah Cates (29) · snap xG 0.13 2–1 ▶
10:30 PHI Trevor Zegras (26)PP Porter Martone (5), Tyson Foerster (4) · snap xG 0.19 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
PHI Trevor Zegras vs Brandon Bussi Saved
CAR Jackson Blake vs Dan Vladar Saved
PHI Matvei Michkov vs Brandon Bussi Saved
CAR Bradly Nadeau vs Dan Vladar Saved
PHI Travis Konecny vs Brandon Bussi Saved
CAR K'Andre Miller vs Dan Vladar Missed
PHI Tyson Foerster vs Brandon Bussi Goal
CAR Alexander Nikishin vs Dan Vladar Saved

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 28%Deserve to win72% PHI
CARPHI
2.31Expected goals3.63
2Goals (no shootout)2
1.76Expected goals, 5 on 52.43
71Shot attempts47
45Unblocked attempts30
26Shots on goal23

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots
Denver Barkey: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 1:55) Noah Cates: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:09) Nick Seeler: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:44) Bradly Nadeau: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:55) Trevor Zegras: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 4:00) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:21) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:27) Sean Couturier: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:03) Denver Barkey: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:16) Bradly Nadeau: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:02) Trevor Zegras: wrist, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:13) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:16) Owen Tippett: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 11:11) Denver Barkey: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:35) Cam York: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 15:51) William Carrier: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:58) Logan Stankoven: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:56) Jackson Blake: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:21) Taylor Hall: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:54) Logan Stankoven: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:00) Eric Robinson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 4:38) Jesperi Kotkaniemi: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:10) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:48) Jackson Blake: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 7:20) Owen Tippett: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 9:19) Owen Tippett: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 9:31) Sean Walker: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:21) Travis Konecny: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:36) Nicolas Deslauriers: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:30) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:58) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:21) Garnet Hathaway: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:41) Matvei Michkov: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 18:24) Mike Reilly: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:11) Jamie Drysdale: wrist, 163 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:15) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:54) Nick Seeler: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:42) Denver Barkey: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 1:45) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:52) William Carrier: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:58) Matvei Michkov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 4:20) Jackson Blake: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 5:16) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:49) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:13) Rasmus Ristolainen: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:03) Trevor Zegras: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:36) Jordan Martinook: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:27) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:06) Taylor Hall: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:08) Mike Reilly: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:20) Jackson Blake: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:22) Noah Cates: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 10:07) Travis Sanheim: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:57) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:20) Owen Tippett: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:34) Jordan Martinook: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:00) Owen Tippett: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:21) Noah Cates: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 13:39) Mike Reilly: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:25) Nicolas Deslauriers: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:58) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:04) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:09) Jackson Blake: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:48) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:56) Trevor Zegras: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (OT 0:39) Jackson Blake: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (OT 1:12) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 2:00) Matvei Michkov: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.30 (OT 2:43) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 3:28) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 4:18) Bradly Nadeau: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 4:54) Bradly Nadeau: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:41) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:30) Matvei Michkov: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:57) Trevor Zegras: GOAL, snap, 13 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Jackson Blake 011 0 100.77 0120:26
22 Logan Stankoven 011 0 50.11 0020:19
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 30.01 0018:43
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 112 +1 60.19 0016:25
29 Bradly Nadeau 101 +1 50.36 2016:16
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi 000 +1 20.02 2115:21
50 Eric Robinson 000 -1 50.19 0015:01
76 Skyler Brind'Amour 000 -1 40.00 2014:25
48 Jordan Martinook 000 -1 30.07 1114:05
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 10.01 0113:16
28 William Carrier 000 0 40.13 3111:21
44 Nicolas Deslauriers 000 0 20.10 11010:23
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 -1 70.21 2227:44
26 Sean Walker 011 +1 10.03 0124:13
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 0 40.02 4323:38
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 -1 20.01 0123:11
62 Charles Alexis Legault 000 +1 10.00 0214:22
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 60.07 0012:13
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Brandon Bussi 23221 .913 3.63 +1.63

Philadelphia Flyers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
46 Trevor Zegras 101 0 60.51 2121:33
11 Travis Konecny 000 0 50.08 3019:35
74 Owen Tippett 000 0 60.96 3118:50
71 Tyson Foerster 011 0 10.00 3018:36
22 Christian Dvorak 000 0 10.00 0217:32
94 Porter Martone 011 0 00.00 3017:16
39 Matvei Michkov 101 +1 60.73 1015:33
27 Noah Cates 011 +1 30.41 1015:22
86 Denver Barkey 011 +1 50.51 1015:00
14 Sean Couturier 000 -1 10.15 3112:13
41 Luke Glendening 000 -1 00.00 1111:00
21 Garnet Hathaway 000 -1 10.01 4110:28
Defense
9 Jamie Drysdale 000 +1 10.00 0125:44
6 Travis Sanheim 000 -1 10.04 1624:19
8 Cam York 000 +1 10.19 1323:54
55 Rasmus Ristolainen 000 -1 20.03 2323:14
24 Nick Seeler 000 0 60.02 2312:50
36 Emil Andrae 000 0 10.00 1011:37
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Dan Vladar 26224 .923 2.31 +0.31

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
32 Brandon Bussi G +1.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.63 64:51
53 Jackson Blake R +1.38 +0.55 +0.50 +0.11 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 20:26
22 Logan Stankoven C +1.15 +0.70 +0.07 +0.37 0.00 -0.03 +0.04 — 20:19
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +1.03 +1.45 +0.13 -0.35 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 16:25
62 Charles Alexis Legault D +0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:22
29 Bradly Nadeau L +0.44 +0.75 +0.23 -0.54 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 16:16
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L +0.30 0.00 +0.06 +0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 10:23
71 Taylor Hall L +0.24 0.00 +0.01 +0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:43
6 Mike Reilly D +0.22 0.00 +0.04 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 12:13
28 William Carrier L +0.17 0.00 +0.08 +0.02 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 11:21
26 Sean Walker D -0.05 +0.55 +0.02 -0.48 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 24:13
77 Mark Jankowski L -0.09 0.00 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 13:16
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.25 0.00 +0.14 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 27:44
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.34 0.00 +0.01 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:11
76 Skyler Brind'Amour C -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 -0.06 0.00 — 14:25
48 Jordan Martinook L -0.50 0.00 +0.04 -0.56 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 14:05
50 Eric Robinson L -0.53 0.00 +0.12 -0.63 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:01
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.57 0.00 +0.02 -0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 23:38
82 Jesperi Kotkaniemi C -0.59 0.00 +0.01 -0.57 0.00 -0.01 -0.03 — 15:21

Philadelphia Flyers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
39 Matvei Michkov R +2.67 +0.75 +0.47 +1.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:33
52 Denver Barkey C +2.37 +0.70 +0.33 +1.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:00
27 Noah Cates L +2.28 +0.55 +0.26 +1.38 0.00 +0.07 +0.02 — 15:22
46 Trevor Zegras C +1.44 +0.75 +0.33 +0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 21:32
74 Owen Tippett R +1.07 0.00 +0.62 +0.22 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 18:50
24 Nick Seeler D +0.82 0.00 +0.01 +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 12:50
8 Cam York D +0.76 0.00 +0.12 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:54
71 Tyson Foerster R +0.64 +0.55 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:36
9 Jamie Drysdale D +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 25:45
36 Emil Andrae D +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:37
80 Dan Vladar G +0.31 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.31 65:00
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D +0.10 0.00 +0.02 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:14
94 Porter Martone R +0.06 +0.70 0.00 -0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:16
6 Travis Sanheim D +0.04 0.00 +0.02 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.28 — 24:18
14 Sean Couturier C -0.11 0.00 +0.09 -0.20 0.00 -0.02 +0.01 — 12:13
11 Travis Konecny R -0.24 0.00 +0.05 -0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:35
41 Luke Glendening C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 — 11:00
19 Garnet Hathaway R -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.46 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 10:28
22 Christian Dvorak C -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.53 -0.15 +0.05 +0.10 — 17:32

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.