Washington CapitalsWSH 2–4 Final Philadelphia FlyersPHI

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH	0	1	1	2	28
Philadelphia FlyersPHI	1	1	2	4	22

Playoff odds, %	Change
WSH	-5.3
PHI	+2.8
NYI	+0.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 6:06 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
5:56	PHI	Owen Tippett (19) Travis Sanheim (18), Matvei Michkov (16) · backhand xG 0.21	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:45	PHI	Carl Grundstrom (8) Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Rasmus Ristolainen (5) · wrist xG 0.01	0–2 ▶
8:12	WSH	Aliaksei Protas (19)SH Anthony Beauvillier (8) · snap xG 0.18	1–2 ▶
3rd Period
2:40	WSH	Anthony Beauvillier (12) Justin Sourdif (14), Trevor van Riemsdyk (6) · wrist xG 0.30	2–2 ▶
14:37	PHI	Jamie Drysdale (4)PP Trevor Zegras (28), Travis Konecny (31) · slap xG 0.06	2–3 ▶
19:43	PHI	Rasmus Ristolainen (1)EN Travis Konecny (32) · wrist xG 0.49	2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 54%Deserve to win46% PHI

WSH		PHI
2.89	Expected goals	3.16
2	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.10	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.15
64	Shot attempts	48
39	Unblocked attempts	36
28	Shots on goal	22

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:38	PHI	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · PHI takes the lead, 61–39% WSH had led since 4:05 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
7:20	PHI	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.19–0.05 In xG over 10 minutes, 18:10 of the 1st to 8:10 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
9:30	WSH	No shift	No shift · Lapierre, 14:24 on the bench No shift from 15:16 of the 1st to 13:48 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:41) before that
9:30	WSH	No shift	No shift · Milano, 14:33 on the bench No shift from 15:17 of the 1st to 13:58 of the 2nd; 5 shifts (3:21) before that

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PHI shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
21	Aliaksei Protas	1	0	1	-1	6	0.44	0	0	20:27
43	Tom Wilson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.23	1	1	20:19
17	Dylan Strome	0	0	0	-1	5	0.48	0	0	19:23
72	Anthony Beauvillier	1	1	2	+1	4	0.44	1	0	17:51
9	Ryan Leonard	0	0	0	+1	5	0.33	2	0	16:27
26	Nic Dowd	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	2	15:57
34	Justin Sourdif	0	1	1	0	2	0.12	3	0	15:48
8	Alex Ovechkin	0	0	0	-2	7	0.20	2	0	15:35
53	Ethen Frank	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	1	0	14:25
24	Brandon Duhaime	0	0	0	0	3	0.18	5	0	09:01
22	Hendrix Lapierre	0	0	0	0	2	0.19	1	0	06:44
15	Sonny Milano	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	06:09
Defense
74	John Carlson	0	0	0	-2	10	0.10	0	4	25:09
6	Jakob Chychrun	0	0	0	-2	7	0.05	0	1	23:59
42	Martin Fehérváry	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	1	18:54
38	Rasmus Sandin	0	0	0	-2	2	0.04	2	1	18:29
3	Matt Roy	0	0	0	+1	3	0.01	2	2	17:26
57	Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	1	1	+2	3	0.01	0	0	15:08

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Clay Stevenson	21	3	18	.857	2.67	-0.33

Philadelphia Flyers

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
22	Christian Dvorak	0	0	0	+1	1	0.10	0	1	20:38
11	Travis Konecny	0	2	2	+1	5	0.05	0	1	19:39
10	Bobby Brink	0	0	0	0	6	0.35	1	1	18:41
46	Trevor Zegras	0	1	1	0	6	0.52	0	0	18:39
27	Noah Cates	0	0	0	-1	4	0.75	1	0	16:37
39	Matvei Michkov	0	1	1	0	2	0.03	0	1	15:54
14	Sean Couturier	0	0	0	+2	4	0.16	3	3	15:46
74	Owen Tippett	1	0	1	0	5	0.27	2	1	15:40
17	Nikita Grebenkin	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	1	0	13:18
86	Denver Barkey	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	11:06
91	Carl Grundstrom	1	0	1	0	3	0.19	3	1	09:20
44	Nicolas Deslauriers	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	3	1	06:30
Defense
6	Travis Sanheim	0	1	1	+3	0	0.00	1	4	23:18
9	Jamie Drysdale	1	0	1	+1	4	0.17	0	4	22:43
8	Cam York	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	0	4	21:57
55	Rasmus Ristolainen	1	1	2	+2	4	0.53	0	0	20:41
24	Nick Seeler	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	2	15:55
47	Noah Juulsen	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	11:38

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Dan Vladar	28	2	26	.929	2.89	+0.89

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
72 Anthony Beauvillier L	+1.79	+1.45	+0.28	+0.03	0.00	+0.01	+0.02	—	17:51
34 Justin Sourdif R	+1.30	+0.70	+0.08	+0.66	-0.15	-0.01	+0.02	—	15:48
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D	+1.18	+0.55	0.00	+0.63	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:08
42 Martin Fehérváry D	+0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.58	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	18:54
29 Hendrix Lapierre C	+0.52	0.00	+0.12	+0.43	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	6:44
43 Tom Wilson R	+0.44	0.00	+0.15	+0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	20:19
22 Brandon Duhaime R	+0.31	0.00	+0.11	+0.20	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:01
3 Matt Roy D	+0.27	0.00	+0.01	+0.20	0.00	0.00	+0.06	—	17:26
21 Aliaksei Protas C	+0.24	+0.75	+0.29	-0.78	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:27
9 Ryan Leonard R	+0.23	0.00	+0.22	-0.13	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	16:27
15 Sonny Milano L	+0.21	0.00	+0.02	+0.21	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	6:09
53 Ethen Frank C	-0.06	0.00	+0.04	-0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:25
8 Alex Ovechkin L	-0.10	0.00	+0.13	-0.10	-0.15	0.00	+0.02	—	15:35
33 Clay Stevenson G	-0.33	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.33	58:25
17 Dylan Strome C	-0.34	0.00	+0.31	-0.73	0.00	+0.08	0.00	—	19:23
6 Jakob Chychrun D	-0.38	0.00	+0.03	-0.34	-0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	23:59
26 Nic Dowd C	-0.50	0.00	0.00	-0.56	0.00	-0.04	+0.10	—	15:57
74 John Carlson D	-0.59	0.00	+0.06	-0.83	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	25:09
38 Rasmus Sandin D	-0.59	0.00	+0.02	-0.64	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:29

Philadelphia Flyers

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
9 Jamie Drysdale D	+2.33	+0.75	+0.11	+1.33	0.00	0.00	+0.14	—	22:43
74 Owen Tippett R	+1.52	+0.75	+0.18	+0.44	+0.15	-0.02	+0.03	—	15:40
39 Matvei Michkov R	+1.49	+0.55	+0.02	+0.89	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:54
46 Trevor Zegras C	+1.45	+0.70	+0.34	+0.45	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	—	18:39
27 Noah Cates L	+1.16	0.00	+0.49	+0.65	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	16:37
10 Bobby Brink R	+0.95	0.00	+0.22	+0.72	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	18:41
55 Rasmus Ristolainen D	+0.92	+1.30	+0.35	-0.68	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	20:41
11 Travis Konecny R	+0.90	+1.25	+0.03	-0.51	+0.15	0.00	-0.03	—	19:39
80 Dan Vladar G	+0.89	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.89	60:00
6 Travis Sanheim D	+0.66	+0.70	0.00	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	23:18
8 Cam York D	+0.59	0.00	0.00	+0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	21:57
91 Carl Grundstrom R	+0.49	+0.75	+0.12	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:20
14 Sean Couturier C	+0.05	0.00	+0.11	-0.14	0.00	-0.05	+0.13	—	15:46
29 Nikita Grebenkin R	+0.02	0.00	+0.02	-0.11	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	13:18
44 Nicolas Deslauriers L	+0.02	+0.70	0.00	-0.58	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	6:30
47 Noah Juulsen D	-0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.08	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	11:38
52 Denver Barkey C	-0.12	0.00	0.00	-0.14	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	11:06
24 Nick Seeler D	-0.22	0.00	+0.01	-0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	15:55
22 Christian Dvorak C	-0.48	0.00	+0.06	-0.65	0.00	+0.06	+0.05	—	20:38

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.