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Buffalo SabresBUF 3–4 Final/OT Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 1020 3 26
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 1021 4 35
Playoff odds, % Change
BUF -2.7
TBL +0.1
CBJ +0.5
OTT +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 6:06 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
10:24 TBL Nikita Kucherov (29) Jake Guentzel (34) · wrist xG 0.10 0–1 ▶
16:53 BUF Mattias Samuelsson (10) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.03 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
4:08 BUF Mattias Samuelsson (11) Ryan McLeod (29), Jack Quinn (24) · wrist xG 0.03 2–1 ▶
8:53 TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand (9)PP Darren Raddysh (34), Nikita Kucherov (59) · snap xG 0.21 2–2 ▶
14:53 BUF Josh Doan (18)PP Tage Thompson (29), Rasmus Dahlin (36) · deflected xG 0.13 3–2 ▶
19:34 TBL Darren Raddysh (17) Nikita Kucherov (60), Brandon Hagel (27) · slap xG 0.10 3–3 ▶
Overtime
4:45 TBL Jake Guentzel (25) Nikita Kucherov (61), J.J. Moser (14) · snap xG 0.24 3–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 36%Deserve to win64% TBL
BUFTBL
2.53Expected goals3.37
3Goals (no shootout)4
0.95Expected goals, 5 on 52.02
49Shot attempts59
38Unblocked attempts49
26Shots on goal35

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
18:22 TBL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vasilevskiy, down 3–2
With 1:38 left; TBL scored at 19:34 of the 3rd (3–3)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots
Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:02) J.J. Moser: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:05) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:08) Zemgus Girgensons: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:36) Peyton Krebs: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:15) Owen Power: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:49) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:55) Konsta Helenius: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:09) Curtis Douglas: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:30) J.J. Moser: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:08) Owen Power: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:28) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:01) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:03) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:09) Tage Thompson: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:40) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 185 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:47) Tage Thompson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:06) Bowen Byram: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:32) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:42) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:56) Josh Doan: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 14:11) Tage Thompson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:52) Ryan McLeod: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 15:38) Yanni Gourde: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:44) Jack Finley: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:04) Scott Sabourin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:05) Jack Quinn: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:35) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:39) Dominic James: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:06) Erik Cernak: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:35) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:50) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:51) Darren Raddysh: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:18) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:23) Victor Hedman: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:20) Alex Tuch: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:24) Scott Sabourin: backhand, 97 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:13) Dominic James: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 8:50) Peyton Krebs: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 11:27) Peyton Krebs: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:56) Ryan McDonagh: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:29) Declan Carlile: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:40) Curtis Douglas: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:42) Konsta Helenius: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:05) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:18) Tage Thompson: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:39) Declan Carlile: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:40) Beck Malenstyn: backhand, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:16) J.J. Moser: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:45) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:46) Brandon Hagel: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 18:49) Jacob Bryson: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:18) Peyton Krebs: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:39) Jack Quinn: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:45) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:56) Brandon Hagel: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:30) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 7:48) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:57) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:06) Darren Raddysh: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:51) Nikita Kucherov: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:33) Erik Cernak: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:21) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:53) Tage Thompson: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:01) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:11) Peyton Krebs: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:07) Ryan McLeod: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 15:18) Peyton Krebs: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:04) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:55) Pontus Holmberg: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:31) Ryan McDonagh: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:33) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:36) Gage Goncalves: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:38) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (OT 0:45) Mattias Samuelsson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:17) Tage Thompson: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (OT 2:22) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.23 (OT 2:33) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 3:31) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 3:59) Alex Tuch: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 4:32) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 10:24) Mattias Samuelsson: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:53) Mattias Samuelsson: GOAL, wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:08) Oliver Bjorkstrand: GOAL, snap, 12 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 8:53) Josh Doan: GOAL, deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:53) Darren Raddysh: GOAL, slap, 46 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:34) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.24 (OT 4:45)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
89 Alex Tuch 000 -2 20.13 0122:38
72 Tage Thompson 011 -1 70.55 1022:09
71 Ryan McLeod 011 0 30.39 0119:31
22 Jack Quinn 011 0 30.08 1017:50
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -2 60.41 3017:47
17 Jason Zucker 000 0 10.00 0017:10
91 Josh Doan 101 0 30.31 0016:29
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 00.00 0014:36
94 Konsta Helenius 000 +1 30.02 3113:47
48 Tyson Kozak 000 +1 00.00 1112:25
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 +1 20.01 2009:08
27 Isak Rosen 000 0 10.00 0008:17
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 011 0 90.39 0227:47
23 Mattias Samuelsson 202 +1 30.12 2024:01
24 Bowen Byram 000 -1 20.04 0123:37
25 Owen Power 000 -1 20.10 0221:51
73 Zach Metsa 000 0 00.00 0111:12
78 Jacob Bryson 000 0 20.00 0011:01
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Colten Ellis 35431 .886 3.37 -0.63

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Jake Guentzel 112 +1 20.34 1026:07
38 Brandon Hagel 011 0 50.39 1025:40
86 Nikita Kucherov 134 +1 100.60 0122:24
37 Yanni Gourde 000 +1 20.22 1020:01
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 20.14 4017:07
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 20.03 3016:31
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 101 +1 30.38 1015:04
93 Gage Goncalves 000 0 10.10 1013:52
17 Dominic James 000 0 20.12 2013:02
37 Jack Finley 000 0 30.15 1007:43
49 Scott Sabourin 000 0 20.07 4106:03
42 Curtis Douglas 000 0 20.21 2005:45
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 112 -1 80.48 2225:48
90 J.J. Moser 011 -1 30.04 0323:51
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 0 40.02 0019:40
81 Erik Cernak 000 0 20.03 0318:04
77 Victor Hedman 000 +1 20.00 0017:39
72 Declan Carlile 000 +1 40.04 3015:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 26323 .885 2.53 -0.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +1.54 +1.50 +0.08 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 24:01
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.93 +0.55 +0.26 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 27:47
72 Tage Thompson C +0.83 +0.70 +0.36 -0.19 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 22:09
71 Ryan McLeod C +0.58 +0.70 +0.25 -0.40 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 19:31
19 Peyton Krebs C +0.47 0.00 +0.26 +0.23 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 17:47
48 Tyson Kozak C +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.19 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 12:25
91 Josh Doan R +0.22 +0.75 +0.20 -0.86 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:29
29 Beck Malenstyn L +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 9:08
22 Jack Quinn R +0.12 +0.55 +0.05 -0.63 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:50
89 Alex Tuch R +0.06 0.00 +0.08 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:38
63 Isak Rosen R +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:17
94 Konsta Helenius C -0.02 0.00 +0.01 -0.23 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:47
25 Owen Power D -0.46 0.00 +0.06 -0.60 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:51
78 Jacob Bryson D -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:01
73 Zach Metsa D -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:12
4 Bowen Byram D -0.62 0.00 +0.03 -0.53 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 23:37
92 Colten Ellis G -0.63 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.63 64:24
17 Jason Zucker L -0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.69 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:10
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.84 0.00 0.00 -0.67 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:36

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +3.60 +2.70 +0.39 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 22:24
59 Jake Guentzel C +2.26 +1.45 +0.22 +0.48 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 26:07
43 Darren Raddysh D +2.16 +1.45 +0.31 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 25:48
38 Brandon Hagel L +1.39 +0.55 +0.25 +0.48 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 25:40
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R +1.05 +0.75 +0.25 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:04
90 J.J. Moser D +0.87 +0.55 +0.03 +0.30 -0.15 0.00 +0.15 — 23:51
81 Erik Cernak D +0.75 0.00 +0.02 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:04
62 Jack Finley C +0.57 0.00 +0.10 +0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:43
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.56 0.00 +0.02 +0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:40
46 Scott Sabourin R +0.53 0.00 +0.05 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 6:03
42 Curtis Douglas C +0.43 0.00 +0.14 +0.44 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 5:45
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.21 0.00 +0.14 +0.03 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 20:01
77 Victor Hedman D +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 17:39
17 Dominic James C +0.14 0.00 +0.08 +0.05 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 13:02
28 Zemgus Girgensons C +0.12 0.00 +0.09 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:07
67 Declan Carlile D +0.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:08
93 Gage Goncalves C +0.01 0.00 +0.06 +0.12 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:52
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.01 0.00 +0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:31
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G -0.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.47 63:33

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.