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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 4–5 Final/OT New York IslandersNYI

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 1210 4 35
New York IslandersNYI 2021 5 23
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI +7.6
PIT -3.7
CBJ -1.0
WSH -0.8
BOS -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 4, 2026 6:06 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
12:09 PIT Anthony Mantha (20) Justin Brazeau (12) · snap xG 0.22 1–0 ▶
18:41 NYI Bo Horvat (22) Anders Lee (20) · backhand xG 0.62 1–1 ▶
19:56 NYI Matthew Schaefer (16) Ondrej Palat (8), Bo Horvat (15) · slap xG 0.06 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
3:52 PIT Egor Chinakhov (11) Tommy Novak (20), Erik Karlsson (31) · snap xG 0.18 2–2 ▶
14:09 PIT Bryan Rust (19) Sidney Crosby (32), Ilya Solovyov (4) · wrist xG 0.04 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
8:37 NYI Mathew Barzal (16) Adam Pelech (7) · slap xG 0.03 3–3 ▶
10:40 PIT Justin Brazeau (15) Brett Kulak (8) · tip-in xG 0.07 4–3 ▶
15:24 NYI Ryan Pulock (3) Mathew Barzal (33), Simon Holmstrom (16) · snap xG 0.06 4–4 ▶
Overtime
0:52 NYI Bo Horvat (23) Mathew Barzal (34), Matthew Schaefer (23) · snap xG 0.22 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 71%Deserve to win29% NYI
PITNYI
3.80Expected goals2.50
4Goals (no shootout)5
3.24Expected goals, 5 on 51.74
64Shot attempts46
50Unblocked attempts35
35Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
9:00 NYI No shift No shift · Duclair, 36:07 on the bench
No shift after 16:43 of the 1st; 4 shifts (3:04) before that
Overtime
0:52 PIT Goalie Goalie · Skinner −2.5 goals saved
5 goals on 2.50 xG, 23 shots on goal

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots
Ryan Pulock: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:08) Mathew Barzal: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 0:10) Tony DeAngelo: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:39) Connor Dewar: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:27) Sidney Crosby: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 2:30) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 2:38) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:44) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:21) Anthony Mantha: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:34) Adam Pelech: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:20) Jonathan Drouin: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 6:28) Ilya Solovyov: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:05) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:28) Ryan Shea: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:22) Erik Karlsson: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:29) Bryan Rust: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:56) Carson Soucy: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:49) Noel Acciari: wrist, 148 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:53) Noel Acciari: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 14:13) Ondrej Palat: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:57) Tommy Novak: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:09) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:56) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:28) Anders Lee: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 16:53) Simon Holmstrom: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:54) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:13) Mathew Barzal: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:36) Anders Lee: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:38) Anders Lee: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 19:50) Sidney Crosby: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:10) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:44) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 0:52) Emil Heineman: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:38) Scott Mayfield: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:14) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:47) Simon Holmstrom: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:48) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 6:08) Mathew Barzal: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:12) Connor Dewar: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 6:18) Erik Karlsson: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:07) Anthony Mantha: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:25) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 8:26) Ryan Shea: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:05) Noel Acciari: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:40) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:19) Casey Cizikas: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:48) Ilya Solovyov: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:40) Rickard Rakell: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.34 (P2 13:43) Rickard Rakell: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:01) Bo Horvat: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:33) Tommy Novak: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 14:47) Mathew Barzal: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:58) Sidney Crosby: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 17:01) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:31) Adam Pelech: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:40) Justin Brazeau: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 18:52) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:04) Justin Brazeau: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:15) Connor Clifton: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:21) Erik Karlsson: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:33) Connor Dewar: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:41) Bryan Rust: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:37) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:37) Mathew Barzal: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:59) Noel Acciari: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:22) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 75 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:48) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:20) Rickard Rakell: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 8:24) Rickard Rakell: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:25) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:00) Tony DeAngelo: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:04) Bo Horvat: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 15:05) Ben Kindel: backhand, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:40) Justin Brazeau: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:41) Erik Karlsson: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:45) Ben Kindel: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 17:49) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 12:09) Bo Horvat: GOAL, backhand, 3 ft, xG 0.62 (P1 18:41) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, slap, 49 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:56) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 3:52) Bryan Rust: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:09) Mathew Barzal: GOAL, slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:37) Justin Brazeau: GOAL, tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:40) Ryan Pulock: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:24) Bo Horvat: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 0:52)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Bryan Rust 101 -1 50.16 1019:05
87 Sidney Crosby 011 0 70.40 3018:17
71 Evgeni Malkin 000 -2 30.26 1017:44
59 Egor Chinakhov 101 -1 40.27 1016:47
67 Rickard Rakell 000 0 40.63 1016:41
18 Tommy Novak 011 -2 30.31 0014:18
81 Ben Kindel 000 +1 30.33 0114:13
39 Anthony Mantha 101 +1 30.28 1113:31
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 40.21 1113:22
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 50.20 1013:15
16 Justin Brazeau 112 +2 70.63 1212:59
46 Blake Lizotte 000 0 00.00 2011:05
Defense
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 +1 10.00 3323:00
65 Erik Karlsson 011 +2 70.07 1022:27
6 Ryan Shea 000 -2 30.03 0120:50
27 Brett Kulak 011 -2 10.00 0120:23
75 Connor Clifton 000 -1 20.02 6016:27
7 Ilya Solovyov 011 +1 20.02 2014:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 23518 .783 2.50 -2.50

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 213 +5 60.93 2224:35
13 Mathew Barzal 123 +4 90.55 0024:16
92 Simon Holmstrom 011 +2 20.16 0018:09
51 Emil Heineman 000 -3 20.01 0015:45
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 -2 10.10 4015:40
81 Ondrej Palat 011 +1 10.01 0014:51
53 Casey Cizikas 000 0 20.00 0114:49
72 Anders Lee 011 +1 30.32 4014:47
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 -1 00.00 3012:44
92 Jonathan Drouin 000 -2 10.07 0111:58
32 Kyle MacLean 000 -1 10.06 1011:17
11 Anthony Duclair 000 -1 00.00 0003:04
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 112 +1 50.06 0327:59
77 Tony DeAngelo 000 +2 30.05 1022:09
6 Ryan Pulock 101 -1 20.07 3420:43
3 Adam Pelech 011 +1 50.07 0120:12
24 Scott Mayfield 000 -1 20.02 3013:39
7 Carson Soucy 000 -1 10.02 1012:29
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ilya Sorokin 35431 .886 3.80 -0.20

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Justin Brazeau R +3.17 +1.45 +0.41 +1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:59
39 Anthony Mantha R +1.91 +0.75 +0.18 +0.94 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:31
7 Ilya Solovyov D +1.80 +0.55 +0.01 +1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:12
59 Egor Chinakhov R +1.75 +0.75 +0.17 +0.55 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 16:47
17 Bryan Rust R +1.63 +0.75 +0.10 +0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:05
65 Erik Karlsson D +1.54 +0.55 +0.04 +1.10 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 22:27
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.45 +0.70 +0.26 +0.59 -0.15 +0.06 0.00 — 18:17
81 Ben Kindel C +1.26 0.00 +0.21 +1.11 0.00 -0.06 -0.01 — 14:13
18 Tommy Novak C +1.24 +0.70 +0.20 +0.38 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 14:18
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.06 0.00 +0.41 +0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:41
75 Connor Clifton D +1.05 0.00 +0.01 +1.10 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 16:27
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:00
55 Noel Acciari C +0.53 0.00 +0.13 +0.39 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:15
77 Brett Kulak D +0.46 +0.70 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:23
19 Connor Dewar C -0.12 0.00 +0.14 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 13:22
5 Ryan Shea D -0.21 0.00 +0.02 -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 20:50
71 Evgeni Malkin C -0.44 0.00 +0.17 -0.60 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:44
46 Blake Lizotte C -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:05
74 Stuart Skinner G -2.50 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.50 60:52

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
14 Bo Horvat C +3.75 +2.05 +0.61 +1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 24:35
13 Mathew Barzal C +3.01 +2.15 +0.35 +0.41 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 24:16
27 Anders Lee L +1.07 +0.70 +0.21 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:47
3 Adam Pelech D +1.02 +0.70 +0.04 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:12
10 Simon Holmstrom R +0.87 +0.55 +0.11 +0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:09
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.53 0.00 +0.03 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:09
48 Matthew Schaefer D +0.20 +1.30 +0.04 -1.27 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 27:59
81 Ondrej Palat L +0.20 +0.70 +0.01 -0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:51
30 Ilya Sorokin G -0.20 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.20 60:22
6 Ryan Pulock D -0.21 +0.75 +0.04 -1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 20:43
11 Anthony Duclair L -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:04
29 Jonathan Drouin L -0.54 0.00 +0.05 -0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:58
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 +0.05 +0.03 — 14:49
32 Kyle MacLean C -0.84 0.00 +0.04 -0.90 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 11:17
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.84 0.00 +0.01 -0.75 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 13:39
16 Marc Gatcomb C -1.26 0.00 0.00 -1.24 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:44
4 Carson Soucy D -1.30 0.00 +0.01 -1.13 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 12:29
51 Emil Heineman L -1.33 0.00 +0.01 -1.32 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:45
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -1.40 0.00 +0.06 -1.44 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:40

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.