| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 33 | |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 26 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3:44 | Sandis Vilmanis (3) A.J. Greer (11), Sergei Bobrovsky (2) · backhand xG 0.08 | 1–0 | |
| 14:54 | Sam Bennett (21)PP Aaron Ekblad (19), Matthew Tkachuk (6) · snap xG 0.07 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 18:01 | Matthew Schaefer (19) Ryan Pulock (21), Mathew Barzal (38) · slap xG 0.02 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 7:28 | Carson Soucy (5) Simon Holmstrom (19), Tony DeAngelo (23) · snap xG 0.16 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 12:04 | Sam Bennett (22) Matthew Tkachuk (7) · backhand xG 0.03 | 3–2 ▶ | |
| 17:14 | Bo Horvat (25) Matthew Schaefer (24) · snap xG 0.03 | 3–3 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 10:29 | Matthew Schaefer (20) Ondrej Palat (9) · snap xG 0.09 | 3–4 ▶ | |
| 18:02 | Sam Reinhart (28) Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8) · snap xG 0.04 | 4–4 ▶ | |
| 19:28 | Anders Lee (14) Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8) · wrist xG 0.17 | 4–5 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| FLA | NYI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.87 | Expected goals | 2.04 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 5 |
| 2.88 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.77 |
| 78 | Shot attempts | 53 |
| 60 | Unblocked attempts | 39 |
| 33 | Shots on goal | 26 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:04 | NYI | Goalie | Goalie · Rittich −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.92 xG, 13 shots on goal |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 2:20 | FLA | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.29–0.26
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:20 of the 2nd to 2:20 of the 3rd; goals 0–1 |
| 10:29 | FLA | Goalie | Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.83 xG, 21 shots on goal |
| 17:33 | FLA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 4–3
With 2:27 left; FLA scored at 18:02 of the 3rd (4–4) |
| 19:39 | FLA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 5–4
With 0:21 left |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 13 | Sam Reinhart | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 9 | 0.88 | 1 | 0 | 20:34 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 11 | 0.55 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 |
| 19 | Matthew Tkachuk | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | 0.41 | 1 | 1 | 19:16 |
| 15 | Anton Lundell | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 17:30 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.42 | 0 | 1 | 17:14 |
| 17 | Evan Rodrigues | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 17:11 |
| 63 | Brad Marchand | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.18 | 1 | 1 | 15:43 |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.32 | 4 | 0 | 15:24 |
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0.14 | 4 | 0 | 07:57 |
| 95 | Sandis Vilmanis | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 1 | 07:45 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 1 | 07:44 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 5 | Aaron Ekblad | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0.03 | 2 | 1 | 26:24 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 0.28 | 1 | 2 | 26:11 |
| 77 | Niko Mikkola | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0 | 1 | 23:03 |
| 7 | Dmitry Kulikov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 20:27 |
| 73 | Donovan Sebrango | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.02 | 1 | 1 | 10:29 |
| 2 | Jeff Petry | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 09:50 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 26 | 5 | 21 | .808 | 2.04 | -2.96 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Bo Horvat | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 9 | 0.36 | 1 | 2 | 20:24 |
| 13 | Mathew Barzal | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 | 0.33 | 2 | 1 | 17:45 |
| 44 | Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 |
| 92 | Simon Holmstrom | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 1 | 16:17 |
| 81 | Ondrej Palat | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 1 | 15:16 |
| 72 | Anders Lee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 0 | 15:00 |
| 51 | Emil Heineman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 14:28 |
| 11 | Anthony Duclair | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 0 | 13:22 |
| 64 | Calum Ritchie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 |
| 53 | Casey Cizikas | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 11:55 |
| 32 | Kyle MacLean | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 |
| 17 | Marc Gatcomb | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 10:45 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 48 | Matthew Schaefer | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 11 | 0.17 | 0 | 4 | 23:17 |
| 6 | Ryan Pulock | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 0.02 | 1 | 2 | 22:12 |
| 77 | Tony DeAngelo | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 |
| 3 | Adam Pelech | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 20:58 |
| 24 | Scott Mayfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.06 | 4 | 0 | 17:09 |
| 7 | Carson Soucy | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 3 | 14:57 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rittich | 33 | 4 | 29 | .879 | 3.87 | -0.13 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Matthew Tkachuk L | +2.76 | +1.80 | +0.27 | +0.47 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 19:16 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | +2.57 | +1.50 | +0.36 | +0.63 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.02 | — | 19:58 |
| 5 Aaron Ekblad D | +2.09 | +1.40 | +0.02 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 26:24 |
| 13 Sam Reinhart C | +1.40 | +0.75 | +0.57 | +0.13 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.04 | — | 20:34 |
| 95 Sandis Vilmanis L | +1.20 | +0.75 | +0.07 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 7:45 |
| 10 A.J. Greer L | +1.13 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +0.36 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 7:57 |
| 27 Eetu Luostarinen C | +0.68 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.31 | +0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:24 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | +0.50 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.38 | 0.00 | -0.02 | +0.05 | — | 7:44 |
| 7 Dmitry Kulikov D | +0.50 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 20:27 |
| 15 Anton Lundell C | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.28 | +0.15 | +0.03 | +0.02 | — | 17:30 |
| 77 Niko Mikkola D | +0.46 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | — | 23:03 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | +0.33 | 0.00 | +0.27 | +0.03 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 17:14 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +0.32 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 26:11 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 15:43 |
| 63 Brad Marchand L | +0.23 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:14 |
| 2 Jeff Petry D | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 9:50 |
| 6 Donovan Sebrango D | -0.02 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.07 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:29 |
| 17 Evan Rodrigues C | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.22 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.05 | — | 17:11 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | -2.41 | +0.55 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.96 | 59:06 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 Matthew Schaefer D | +2.75 | +2.20 | +0.11 | +0.39 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.20 | — | 23:17 |
| 14 Bo Horvat C | +1.89 | +0.75 | +0.23 | +0.79 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.10 | — | 20:24 |
| 13 Mathew Barzal C | +1.76 | +0.55 | +0.21 | +0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 17:45 |
| 81 Ondrej Palat L | +1.59 | +0.70 | +0.19 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 15:16 |
| 6 Ryan Pulock D | +1.02 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.36 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 22:12 |
| 4 Carson Soucy D | +0.88 | +0.75 | +0.11 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | — | 14:57 |
| 10 Simon Holmstrom R | +0.19 | +0.70 | +0.10 | -0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 16:17 |
| 32 Kyle MacLean C | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 10:47 |
| 27 Anders Lee L | +0.14 | +0.75 | +0.11 | -0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:00 |
| 77 Tony DeAngelo D | +0.09 | +1.25 | +0.04 | -1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 21:34 |
| 33 David Rittich G | -0.13 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.13 | 60:00 |
| 24 Scott Mayfield D | -0.19 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 17:09 |
| 16 Marc Gatcomb C | -0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 10:45 |
| 3 Adam Pelech D | -0.39 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 20:58 |
| 64 Calum Ritchie C | -0.53 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.51 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | — | 13:20 |
| 44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | -0.56 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.50 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.06 | — | 16:28 |
| 53 Casey Cizikas C | -0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.67 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 11:55 |
| 51 Emil Heineman L | -0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.75 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:28 |
| 11 Anthony Duclair L | -0.97 | 0.00 | +0.11 | -1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:22 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.