Florida PanthersFLA 4–5 Final New York IslandersNYI

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 211 4 33
New York IslandersNYI 122 5 26
Playoff odds, % Change
NYI +4.6
FLA -1.6
WSH -0.9
CBJ -0.7
PHI -0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 1, 2026 5:44 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:44 FLA Sandis Vilmanis (3) A.J. Greer (11), Sergei Bobrovsky (2) · backhand xG 0.08 1–0
14:54 FLA Sam Bennett (21)PP Aaron Ekblad (19), Matthew Tkachuk (6) · snap xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
18:01 NYI Matthew Schaefer (19) Ryan Pulock (21), Mathew Barzal (38) · slap xG 0.02 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:28 NYI Carson Soucy (5) Simon Holmstrom (19), Tony DeAngelo (23) · snap xG 0.16 2–2 ▶
12:04 FLA Sam Bennett (22) Matthew Tkachuk (7) · backhand xG 0.03 3–2 ▶
17:14 NYI Bo Horvat (25) Matthew Schaefer (24) · snap xG 0.03 3–3 ▶
3rd Period
10:29 NYI Matthew Schaefer (20) Ondrej Palat (9) · snap xG 0.09 3–4 ▶
18:02 FLA Sam Reinhart (28) Aaron Ekblad (20), Matthew Tkachuk (8) · snap xG 0.04 4–4 ▶
19:28 NYI Anders Lee (14) Tony DeAngelo (24), Adam Pelech (8) · wrist xG 0.17 4–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 79%Deserve to win21% NYI
FLANYI
3.87Expected goals2.04
4Goals (no shootout)5
2.88Expected goals, 5 on 51.77
78Shot attempts53
60Unblocked attempts39
33Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
12:04 NYI Goalie Goalie · Rittich −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.92 xG, 13 shots on goal
3rd Period
2:20 FLA xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NYI 1.29–0.26
In xG over 10 minutes, 12:20 of the 2nd to 2:20 of the 3rd; goals 0–1
10:29 FLA Goalie Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.83 xG, 21 shots on goal
17:33 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 4–3
With 2:27 left; FLA scored at 18:02 of the 3rd (4–4)
19:39 FLA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Bobrovsky, down 5–4
With 0:21 left

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYI shoots
Niko Mikkola: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:18) Niko Mikkola: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:34) Sam Bennett: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:43) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:57) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:56) Mathew Barzal: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:22) Bo Horvat: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:13) Kyle MacLean: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:16) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:19) Sandis Vilmanis: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:20) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:28) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:35) Sam Bennett: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:44) Bo Horvat: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 15:46) Bo Horvat: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 16:13) Mathew Barzal: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 16:18) A.J. Greer: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 16:52) Gustav Forsling: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:13) Gustav Forsling: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:20) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:55) Jean-Gabriel Pageau: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:56) Sam Bennett: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:33) Sam Bennett: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:35) Sam Bennett: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:38) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:39) Bo Horvat: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:40) Jesper Boqvist: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:12) Ondrej Palat: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 4:02) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:40) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 6:48) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:37) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:09) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 10:54) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:09) Niko Mikkola: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:23) Jeff Petry: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:22) Donovan Sebrango: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:29) Eetu Luostarinen: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:00) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 13:19) Gustav Forsling: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:35) Anthony Duclair: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:58) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:33) Sam Reinhart: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 14:49) Ryan Pulock: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:52) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 16:20) Gustav Forsling: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:19) Sam Bennett: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:35) Dmitry Kulikov: snap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:21) Mathew Barzal: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:57) Eetu Luostarinen: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 0:24) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:36) Brad Marchand: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 1:41) Sam Reinhart: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.55 (P3 1:44) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:18) Calum Ritchie: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:42) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:45) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:52) A.J. Greer: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 3:09) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:12) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:46) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:14) Gustav Forsling: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 4:41) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:53) Simon Holmstrom: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 5:00) Mackie Samoskevich: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 5:11) Matthew Schaefer: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:35) Ondrej Palat: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:00) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:23) Scott Mayfield: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:31) Ondrej Palat: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:01) Aaron Ekblad: snap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 8:36) Matthew Schaefer: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:05) Tony DeAngelo: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:20) Carson Soucy: slap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:04) Scott Mayfield: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:26) Mathew Barzal: backhand, 111 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:46) Bo Horvat: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:13) Sam Reinhart: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:49) Dmitry Kulikov: snap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:54) Carter Verhaeghe: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:06) Sam Reinhart: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 16:08) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 16:21) Carter Verhaeghe: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:22) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:03) Niko Mikkola: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:06) Matthew Tkachuk: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 17:31) Eetu Luostarinen: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 18:57) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:06) Sam Bennett: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 19:09) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:57) Sandis Vilmanis: GOAL, backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:44) Sam Bennett: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:54) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:01) Carson Soucy: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 7:28) Sam Bennett: GOAL, backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:04) Bo Horvat: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:14) Matthew Schaefer: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:29) Sam Reinhart: GOAL, snap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:02) Anders Lee: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 19:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
13 Sam Reinhart 101 -1 90.88 1020:34
9 Sam Bennett 202 -1 110.55 0019:58
19 Matthew Tkachuk 033 -1 90.41 1119:16
15 Anton Lundell 000 +1 00.00 3017:30
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -2 60.42 0117:14
17 Evan Rodrigues 000 -2 50.11 0117:11
63 Brad Marchand 000 +1 20.19 0016:14
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 -1 40.18 1115:43
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 40.32 4015:24
18 A.J. Greer 011 +1 30.14 4007:57
95 Sandis Vilmanis 101 +1 20.11 0107:45
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 +1 20.15 1107:44
Defense
5 Aaron Ekblad 022 +1 30.03 2126:24
42 Gustav Forsling 000 -2 70.28 1226:11
77 Niko Mikkola 000 -1 50.04 0123:03
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 -2 30.02 1020:27
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 20.02 1110:29
2 Jeff Petry 000 -1 10.00 3209:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 26521 .808 2.04 -2.96

New York Islanders

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Bo Horvat 101 +1 90.36 1220:24
13 Mathew Barzal 011 +2 70.33 2117:45
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau 000 +2 20.07 0016:28
92 Simon Holmstrom 011 +1 10.16 0116:17
81 Ondrej Palat 011 +2 30.29 2115:16
72 Anders Lee 101 0 10.17 1015:00
51 Emil Heineman 000 0 00.00 4014:28
11 Anthony Duclair 000 -1 20.16 1013:22
64 Calum Ritchie 000 0 10.02 0013:20
53 Casey Cizikas 000 -1 10.00 2011:55
32 Kyle MacLean 000 0 10.01 0010:47
17 Marc Gatcomb 000 -1 20.00 4110:45
Defense
48 Matthew Schaefer 213 +4 110.17 0423:17
6 Ryan Pulock 011 +3 20.02 1222:12
77 Tony DeAngelo 022 -2 40.06 0021:34
3 Adam Pelech 011 -2 00.00 2220:58
24 Scott Mayfield 000 0 40.06 4017:09
7 Carson Soucy 101 +1 20.17 1314:57
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
David Rittich 33429 .879 3.87 -0.13

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +2.76 +1.80 +0.27 +0.47 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:16
9 Sam Bennett C +2.57 +1.50 +0.36 +0.63 0.00 +0.06 +0.02 — 19:58
5 Aaron Ekblad D +2.09 +1.40 +0.02 +0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:24
13 Sam Reinhart C +1.40 +0.75 +0.57 +0.13 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 20:34
95 Sandis Vilmanis L +1.20 +0.75 +0.07 +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 7:45
10 A.J. Greer L +1.13 +0.70 +0.09 +0.36 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 7:57
27 Eetu Luostarinen C +0.68 0.00 +0.21 +0.31 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 15:24
70 Jesper Boqvist C +0.50 0.00 +0.10 +0.38 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 7:44
7 Dmitry Kulikov D +0.50 0.00 +0.02 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:27
15 Anton Lundell C +0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.28 +0.15 +0.03 +0.02 — 17:30
77 Niko Mikkola D +0.46 0.00 +0.03 +0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 23:03
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +0.33 0.00 +0.27 +0.03 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:14
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.32 0.00 +0.18 +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 26:11
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.23 0.00 +0.12 +0.08 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 15:43
63 Brad Marchand L +0.23 0.00 +0.12 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:14
2 Jeff Petry D +0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 9:50
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.02 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 10:29
17 Evan Rodrigues C -0.14 0.00 +0.07 -0.22 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 17:11
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -2.41 +0.55 — — 0.00 — — -2.96 59:06

New York Islanders

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Matthew Schaefer D +2.75 +2.20 +0.11 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 23:17
14 Bo Horvat C +1.89 +0.75 +0.23 +0.79 0.00 +0.02 +0.10 — 20:24
13 Mathew Barzal C +1.76 +0.55 +0.21 +0.93 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 17:45
81 Ondrej Palat L +1.59 +0.70 +0.19 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:16
6 Ryan Pulock D +1.02 +0.70 +0.01 +0.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 22:12
4 Carson Soucy D +0.88 +0.75 +0.11 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 14:57
10 Simon Holmstrom R +0.19 +0.70 +0.10 -0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:17
32 Kyle MacLean C +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:47
27 Anders Lee L +0.14 +0.75 +0.11 -0.67 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 15:00
77 Tony DeAngelo D +0.09 +1.25 +0.04 -1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:34
33 David Rittich G -0.13 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.13 60:00
24 Scott Mayfield D -0.19 0.00 +0.04 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 17:09
16 Marc Gatcomb C -0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:45
3 Adam Pelech D -0.39 +0.55 0.00 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:58
64 Calum Ritchie C -0.53 0.00 +0.01 -0.51 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 13:20
44 Jean-Gabriel Pageau C -0.56 0.00 +0.05 -0.50 0.00 -0.04 -0.06 — 16:28
53 Casey Cizikas C -0.64 0.00 0.00 -0.67 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 11:55
51 Emil Heineman L -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.75 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:28
11 Anthony Duclair L -0.97 0.00 +0.11 -1.05 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.