Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 2–3 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK	0	2	0	2	29
Buffalo SabresBUF	1	2	0	3	28

Playoff odds, %	Change
VGK	-2.5
BUF	+2.0
NSH	+0.6
EDM	+0.6
LAK	+0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 3, 2026 6:40 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:02	BUF	Jason Zucker (16) Ryan McLeod (32), Rasmus Dahlin (40) · snap xG 0.20	0–1 ▶
2nd Period
0:46	BUF	Owen Power (5) Noah Ostlund (11) · wrist xG 0.03	0–2 ▶
5:44	BUF	Tage Thompson (33) Alex Tuch (28), Rasmus Dahlin (41) · wrist xG 0.09	0–3 ▶
6:50	VGK	Ivan Barbashev (18) Shea Theodore (21), Jack Eichel (48) · wrap-around xG 0.57	1–3 ▶
8:27	VGK	Pavel Dorofeyev (29) Reilly Smith (9) · wrist xG 0.15	2–3 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 68%Deserve to win32% BUF

VGK		BUF
4.08	Expected goals	3.46
2	Goals (no shootout)	3
3.15	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.83
59	Shot attempts	58
48	Unblocked attempts	46
29	Shots on goal	28

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
14:10	VGK	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.33–0.14 In xG over 10 minutes, 4:10 to 14:10 of the 1st; neither team scored
2nd Period
6:15	BUF	Goalie	Goalie · Lyon +2.1 goals saved 0 goals on 2.14 xG, 10 shots on goal
15:50	VGK	No shift	No shift · Hertl, 16:40 on the bench No shift from 5:44 of the 2nd to 2:24 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (6:44) before that
15:50	VGK	No shift	No shift · Saad, 16:51 on the bench No shift from 5:44 of the 2nd to 2:35 of the 3rd; 11 shifts (6:23) before that
15:50	VGK	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced BUF 1.51–0.36 In xG over 10 minutes, 6:00 to 16:00 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
1:30	VGK	No shift	No shift · Lavoie, 10:46 on the bench No shift from 11:29 of the 2nd to 2:15 of the 3rd; 8 shifts (6:20) before that
18:29	VGK	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 3–2 With 1:31 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
93	Mitch Marner	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	22:11
9	Jack Eichel	0	1	1	0	5	0.12	0	0	21:19
16	Pavel Dorofeyev	1	0	1	+1	5	0.39	0	0	20:48
19	Reilly Smith	0	1	1	+1	4	0.24	2	0	19:04
42	Braeden Bowman	0	0	0	0	5	1.13	1	0	18:15
49	Ivan Barbashev	1	0	1	0	3	0.61	0	0	17:41
15	Colton Sissons	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	3	1	13:01
48	Tomas Hertl	0	0	0	-2	5	0.22	2	0	11:47
55	Keegan Kolesar	0	0	0	-2	5	0.52	7	1	11:40
29	Cole Reinhardt	0	0	0	0	2	0.21	4	0	11:01
36	Raphael Lavoie	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	0	08:34
20	Brandon Saad	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	0	0	08:14
Defense
27	Shea Theodore	0	1	1	0	6	0.19	0	1	24:29
3	Brayden McNabb	0	0	0	+1	4	0.10	3	1	20:36
15	Noah Hanifin	0	0	0	-1	4	0.03	0	3	19:10
4	Rasmus Andersson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	1	18:16
6	Kaedan Korczak	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	17:26
5	Jeremy Lauzon	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	4	1	15:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Akira Schmid	28	3	25	.893	2.95	-0.05

Buffalo Sabres

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
72	Tage Thompson	1	0	1	+1	6	0.15	0	0	21:07
19	Peyton Krebs	0	0	0	+1	2	0.15	4	0	20:04
89	Alex Tuch	0	1	1	+1	3	0.15	1	1	19:36
91	Josh Doan	0	0	0	0	3	0.14	1	1	16:32
71	Ryan McLeod	0	1	1	+1	3	0.37	0	1	15:51
9	Josh Norris	0	0	0	0	4	0.16	0	0	15:35
22	Jack Quinn	0	0	0	0	7	0.72	0	0	15:05
86	Noah Ostlund	0	1	1	0	3	0.13	0	0	14:19
17	Jason Zucker	1	0	1	+1	4	0.29	0	0	13:36
6	Zach Benson	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	09:46
29	Beck Malenstyn	0	0	0	0	3	0.06	2	1	08:57
48	Tyson Kozak	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	08:34
Defense
26	Rasmus Dahlin	0	2	2	+2	1	0.01	3	1	25:50
23	Mattias Samuelsson	0	0	0	+1	9	0.75	1	1	25:15
25	Owen Power	1	0	1	-1	2	0.05	0	2	22:54
24	Bowen Byram	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	22:42
7	Michael Kesselring	0	0	0	0	6	0.30	0	0	11:19
73	Zach Metsa	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	1	10:58

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Alex Lyon	29	2	27	.931	4.08	+2.08

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
27 Shea Theodore D	+1.43	+0.70	+0.12	+0.56	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:29
49 Ivan Barbashev L	+1.29	+0.75	+0.40	+0.19	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	17:41
3 Brayden McNabb D	+1.23	0.00	+0.07	+1.09	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	20:36
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R	+1.13	+0.75	+0.26	+0.14	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:48
9 Jack Eichel C	+0.98	+0.55	+0.08	+0.39	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	21:19
42 Braeden Bowman R	+0.84	0.00	+0.73	+0.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	18:15
19 Reilly Smith R	+0.79	+0.70	+0.16	-0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	19:04
23 Cole Reinhardt L	+0.64	0.00	+0.14	+0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:01
6 Kaedan Korczak D	+0.41	0.00	+0.02	+0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:26
10 Colton Sissons C	+0.17	0.00	+0.05	+0.02	0.00	+0.06	+0.05	—	13:01
15 Noah Hanifin D	+0.16	0.00	+0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	+0.15	—	19:10
93 Mitch Marner R	+0.12	0.00	0.00	+0.12	0.00	-0.03	+0.03	—	22:11
55 Keegan Kolesar R	+0.12	0.00	+0.34	-0.24	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:40
36 Raphael Lavoie C	+0.11	0.00	+0.03	+0.11	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	—	8:34
40 Akira Schmid G	-0.05	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	-0.05	58:29
48 Tomas Hertl C	-0.24	0.00	+0.14	-0.33	0.00	-0.05	0.00	—	11:47
20 Brandon Saad L	-0.41	0.00	+0.04	-0.45	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	8:14
5 Jeremy Lauzon D	-0.57	0.00	+0.03	-0.77	+0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	15:59
4 Rasmus Andersson D	-0.87	0.00	+0.04	-0.79	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	18:16

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
17 Jason Zucker L	+2.26	+0.75	+0.19	+1.34	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:36
71 Ryan McLeod C	+2.24	+0.70	+0.24	+1.26	0.00	-0.01	+0.05	—	15:51
34 Alex Lyon G	+2.08	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.08	60:00
26 Rasmus Dahlin D	+2.02	+1.10	+0.01	+0.87	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	25:50
23 Mattias Samuelsson D	+1.51	0.00	+0.49	+0.97	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	25:15
86 Noah Ostlund C	+1.10	+0.70	+0.08	+0.29	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	14:19
22 Jack Quinn R	+0.91	0.00	+0.47	+0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:05
8 Michael Kesselring D	+0.58	0.00	+0.20	+0.39	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:19
72 Tage Thompson C	+0.44	+0.75	+0.10	-0.40	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	21:07
91 Josh Doan R	+0.36	0.00	+0.09	+0.22	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	16:32
9 Josh Norris C	+0.21	0.00	+0.10	+0.08	0.00	+0.02	0.00	—	15:35
73 Zach Metsa D	+0.19	0.00	+0.01	+0.13	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	10:58
89 Alex Tuch R	+0.03	+0.70	+0.10	-0.65	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	19:36
25 Owen Power D	0.00	+0.75	+0.03	-0.88	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:54
29 Beck Malenstyn L	-0.18	0.00	+0.04	-0.29	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	8:57
19 Peyton Krebs C	-0.49	0.00	+0.10	-0.60	0.00	+0.04	-0.02	—	20:04
48 Tyson Kozak C	-1.08	0.00	0.00	-1.14	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	8:34
6 Zach Benson L	-1.17	0.00	0.00	-1.15	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	9:46
4 Bowen Byram D	-1.90	0.00	0.00	-1.86	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	22:42

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.