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Minnesota WildMIN 4–2 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Friday, March 6, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Minnesota WildMIN 031 4 24
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 002 2 31
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK -3.0
MIN +0.0
EDM +0.6
SEA +0.5
LAK +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 6, 2026 9:23 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
5:18 MIN Mats Zuccarello (12) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.24 1–0 ▶
8:07 MIN Zach Bogosian (2) Danila Yurov (15), Yakov Trenin (13) · slap xG 0.04 2–0 ▶
8:25 MIN Michael McCarron (6) Brock Faber (27), Quinn Hughes (56) · tip-in xG 0.11 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
2:17 VGK Pavel Dorofeyev (30)PP Jack Eichel (49), Braeden Bowman (16) · wrist xG 0.09 3–1 ▶
15:42 MIN Vladimir Tarasenko (16) Jared Spurgeon (12), Michael McCarron (8) · wrist xG 0.11 4–1 ▶
16:55 VGK Mitch Marner (18) Pavel Dorofeyev (21), Tomas Hertl (30) · wrist xG 0.17 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MIN 41%Deserve to win59% VGK
MINVGK
3.70Expected goals3.05
4Goals (no shootout)2
2.31Expected goals, 5 on 52.83
59Shot attempts62
41Unblocked attempts50
24Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
4:46 VGK Deserve to win Deserve to win · VGK takes the lead, 61–39%
MIN had led since 16:28 of the 1st, by as much as 64%
3rd Period
1:27 MIN Goalie Goalie · Gustavsson +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.05 xG, 20 shots on goal
18:04 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 4–2
With 1:56 left

Shot map

MIN shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Ryan Hartman: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:16) Brandon Saad: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 0:36) Matt Boldy: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:17) Danila Yurov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:23) Colton Sissons: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:01) Jared Spurgeon: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:20) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:48) Jack Eichel: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:57) Reilly Smith: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:54) Nic Dowd: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 6:39) Vladimir Tarasenko: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:43) Kirill Kaprizov: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:54) Matt Boldy: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:33) Zach Bogosian: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:57) Bobby Brink: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:04) Matt Boldy: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:15) Matt Boldy: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:38) Matt Boldy: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:26) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:28) Keegan Kolesar: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:15) Robby Fabbri: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:55) Colton Sissons: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:13) Cole Smith: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:14) Kirill Kaprizov: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:56) Jack Eichel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:23) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:31) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:45) Jack Eichel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:01) Jeremy Lauzon: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:45) Noah Hanifin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:16) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:35) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 4:46) Pavel Dorofeyev: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:06) Mitch Marner: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:09) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:32) Bobby Brink: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:02) Danila Yurov: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:03) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:24) Reilly Smith: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 9:55) Brandon Saad: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:44) Colton Sissons: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:53) Jake Middleton: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:15) Jack Eichel: backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 13:30) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 14:14) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:48) Jonas Brodin: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 15:03) Quinn Hughes: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:36) Jack Eichel: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:44) Nic Dowd: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:57) Kaedan Korczak: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:30) Shea Theodore: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:01) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:56) Mats Zuccarello: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:14) Brayden McNabb: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:26) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 0:41) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:01) Mitch Marner: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:27) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:00) Brayden McNabb: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:14) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 3:24) Ryan Hartman: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 3:25) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:16) Danila Yurov: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:17) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 4:37) Keegan Kolesar: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:41) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:48) Noah Hanifin: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:14) Kirill Kaprizov: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:23) Quinn Hughes: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:58) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:56) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:03) Jack Eichel: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:23) Jack Eichel: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:32) Jack Eichel: wrist, 126 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:08) Noah Hanifin: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:34) Robby Fabbri: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:02) Nic Dowd: deflected, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:51) Kaedan Korczak: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:41) Cole Smith: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:30) Matt Boldy: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:40) Jack Eichel: backhand, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:03) Vladimir Tarasenko: wrist, 122 ft, xG 0.49 (P3 18:22) Joel Eriksson Ek: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:44) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:54) Joel Eriksson Ek: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.69 (P3 19:49) Mats Zuccarello: GOAL, wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 5:18) Zach Bogosian: GOAL, slap, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:07) Michael McCarron: GOAL, tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 8:25) Pavel Dorofeyev: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:17) Vladimir Tarasenko: GOAL, wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:42) Mitch Marner: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 16:55)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Minnesota Wild

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Kirill Kaprizov 000 0 50.12 1022:46
12 Matt Boldy 000 0 70.24 2020:21
14 Joel Eriksson Ek 000 0 91.01 3019:37
36 Mats Zuccarello 101 0 20.29 1017:52
38 Ryan Hartman 000 +1 40.55 0116:40
10 Bobby Brink 000 0 60.10 0113:28
91 Vladimir Tarasenko 101 +2 30.67 1012:58
13 Yakov Trenin 011 +2 10.00 7211:53
78 Nico Sturm 000 +1 00.00 0010:59
22 Danila Yurov 011 +1 40.16 2110:59
47 Michael McCarron 112 +1 10.11 3010:41
21 Robby Fabbri 000 +1 30.21 1010:39
Defense
43 Quinn Hughes 011 +1 50.05 0127:46
46 Jared Spurgeon 011 +3 10.03 1121:37
25 Jonas Brodin 000 +2 30.09 0219:23
7 Brock Faber 011 +1 10.00 0016:41
24 Zach Bogosian 101 0 30.06 0116:37
55 Jake Middleton 000 -1 10.01 0016:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Filip Gustavsson 31229 .935 3.05 +1.05

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 011 -1 110.38 0124:30
42 Braeden Bowman 011 -1 20.22 1019:50
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 -1 40.34 3019:30
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 112 -1 60.36 0018:01
93 Mitch Marner 101 -1 50.36 0215:55
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 40.31 1014:39
48 Tomas Hertl 011 -1 30.06 0114:27
22 Cole Smith 000 0 20.17 0013:41
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 30.11 3013:17
19 Reilly Smith 000 -1 20.08 0011:31
20 Brandon Saad 000 -1 20.12 0108:39
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 -1 20.02 1108:09
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 000 -1 20.01 0123:52
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -1 40.32 0422:57
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -2 30.01 1320:58
3 Brayden McNabb 000 -1 30.03 1320:54
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -1 10.07 3114:37
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 30.07 0012:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 24420 .833 2.53 -1.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Minnesota Wild

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
46 Jared Spurgeon D +1.93 +0.70 +0.02 +1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:37
47 Michael McCarron C +1.50 +1.30 +0.07 +0.14 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 10:41
91 Vladimir Tarasenko R +1.19 +0.75 +0.44 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:58
32 Filip Gustavsson G +1.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.05 60:00
22 Danila Yurov R +0.96 +0.70 +0.11 +0.16 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 10:59
36 Mats Zuccarello R +0.92 +0.75 +0.19 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:52
13 Yakov Trenin C +0.91 +0.55 0.00 +0.27 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 11:53
25 Jonas Brodin D +0.78 0.00 +0.06 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:23
38 Ryan Hartman R +0.50 0.00 +0.36 +0.19 0.00 -0.05 +0.01 — 16:40
43 Quinn Hughes D +0.44 +0.55 +0.03 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 27:46
78 Nico Sturm C +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.42 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:59
21 Robby Fabbri C +0.38 0.00 +0.14 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:39
7 Brock Faber D +0.37 +0.70 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:41
24 Zach Bogosian D +0.22 +0.75 +0.04 -0.47 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:37
97 Kirill Kaprizov L +0.08 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:46
14 Joel Eriksson Ek C +0.02 0.00 +0.66 -0.61 0.00 -0.05 +0.02 — 19:37
10 Bobby Brink R -0.29 0.00 +0.07 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:28
12 Matt Boldy L -0.47 0.00 +0.16 -0.76 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 20:21
5 Jake Middleton D -1.08 0.00 +0.01 -1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:08

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +1.71 +1.45 +0.24 -0.13 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:01
9 Jack Eichel C +1.26 +0.70 +0.24 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 24:30
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.79 0.00 +0.21 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.16 — 22:57
93 Mitch Marner R +0.68 +0.75 +0.23 -0.37 0.00 +0.02 +0.04 — 15:55
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.65 +0.55 +0.14 +0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 19:50
10 Colton Sissons C +0.53 0.00 +0.20 +0.31 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 14:39
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.53 0.00 +0.01 +0.39 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 20:58
49 Ivan Barbashev L +0.49 0.00 +0.22 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:30
62 Nic Dowd C +0.44 0.00 +0.07 +0.30 0.00 +0.07 0.00 — 13:17
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.39 0.00 +0.05 +0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:08
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.36 +0.55 +0.04 -0.35 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 — 14:27
22 Cole Smith R +0.28 0.00 +0.11 +0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:41
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.20 0.00 +0.05 +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:37
20 Brandon Saad L +0.14 0.00 +0.08 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:39
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.11 0.00 +0.01 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 8:09
19 Reilly Smith R -0.18 0.00 +0.05 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:31
3 Brayden McNabb D -0.21 0.00 +0.02 -0.38 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:54
27 Shea Theodore D -0.48 0.00 +0.01 -0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 23:52
40 Akira Schmid G -1.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.47 58:25

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.