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Montréal CanadiensMTL 3–2 Final Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Montréal CanadiensMTL 111 3 23
Ottawa SenatorsOTT 200 2 34
Playoff odds, % Change
OTT -7.9
MTL +3.3
DET +1.5
BOS +1.2
CBJ +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 11, 2026 7:29 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:16 MTL Juraj Slafkovský (24)PP Ivan Demidov (37), Nick Suzuki (54) · wrist xG 0.18 1–0 ▶
16:42 OTT Drake Batherson (24)PP Brady Tkachuk (27), Tim Stützle (39) · deflected xG 0.92 1–1 ▶
18:41 OTT Drake Batherson (25) Tim Stützle (40), Claude Giroux (29) · tip-in xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
17:29 MTL Alexandre Texier (8) Lane Hutson (55), Jake Evans (10) · wrap-around xG 0.14 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
12:40 MTL Ivan Demidov (14) Alex Newhook (10), Kaiden Guhle (6) · wrist xG 0.47 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

MTL 41%Deserve to win59% OTT
MTLOTT
4.50Expected goals3.67
3Goals (no shootout)2
2.97Expected goals, 5 on 51.93
52Shot attempts69
41Unblocked attempts44
23Shots on goal34

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
18:50 OTT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced MTL 1.32–0.06
In xG over 10 minutes, 11:10 of the 1st to 1:10 of the 2nd; goals 2–0
3rd Period
17:54 OTT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Ullmark, down 3–2
With 2:06 left

Shot map

MTL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots
Dylan Cozens: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 0:18) Dylan Cozens: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 0:27) Noah Dobson: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 2:15) Josh Anderson: tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 2:24) Thomas Chabot: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:56) Alex Newhook: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 3:16) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:48) Jayden Struble: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:21) Jayden Struble: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:22) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 10:21) Ridly Greig: wrist, 148 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:52) Claude Giroux: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:57) Warren Foegele: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:46) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:25) Shane Pinto: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:54) Noah Dobson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:25) Shane Pinto: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:37) Lane Hutson: snap, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:47) Fabian Zetterlund: deflected, 17 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:31) Kirby Dach: wrist, 94 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:46) Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:33) Claude Giroux: wrap-around, 3 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:01) Ivan Demidov: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 2:01) Kirby Dach: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:33) Fabian Zetterlund: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:54) Nick Suzuki: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:23) Brady Tkachuk: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:09) Brady Tkachuk: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:36) Drake Batherson: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 5:50) Michael Amadio: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:47) Dylan Cozens: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 9:13) Brady Tkachuk: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:27) Kaiden Guhle: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:04) Mike Matheson: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:50) Zachary Bolduc: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 12:30) Kirby Dach: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 12:41) Ridly Greig: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:59) Ivan Demidov: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:01) Josh Anderson: poke, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 15:03) Kaiden Guhle: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 15:07) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:31) Lane Hutson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:32) Oliver Kapanen: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:33) Tim Stützle: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:50) Juraj Slafkovský: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:56) Michael Amadio: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 17:03) Shane Pinto: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:04) Alexandre Texier: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:12) Drake Batherson: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:40) Brady Tkachuk: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:27) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:32) Noah Dobson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:09) Mike Matheson: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:33) Ivan Demidov: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:54) Jordan Spence: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:15) Lars Eller: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:17) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:26) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:41) Noah Dobson: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:55) Lane Hutson: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:06) Warren Foegele: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 7:35) Alex Newhook: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:53) Mike Matheson: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 10:10) Drake Batherson: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:50) Alex Newhook: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:37) Kirby Dach: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:50) Tyler Kleven: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 13:27) Claude Giroux: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:35) Brendan Gallagher: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:06) Thomas Chabot: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:00) Tim Stützle: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:35) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.78 (P3 17:59) Juraj Slafkovský: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.55 (P3 18:03) Claude Giroux: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:16) Claude Giroux: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:43) Thomas Chabot: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:57) Dylan Cozens: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:20) Claude Giroux: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:38) Dylan Cozens: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:56) Dylan Cozens: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:57) Juraj Slafkovský: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 1:16) Drake Batherson: GOAL, deflected, 4 ft, xG 0.92 (P1 16:42) Drake Batherson: GOAL, tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:41) Alexandre Texier: GOAL, wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:29) Ivan Demidov: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 12:40)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 011 0 30.12 0119:45
20 Juraj Slafkovský 101 0 41.52 1319:43
71 Jake Evans 011 +1 10.00 7117:21
24 Phillip Danault 000 0 10.00 2115:33
85 Alexandre Texier 101 +1 30.16 4114:49
17 Josh Anderson 000 0 20.38 2214:30
77 Kirby Dach 000 0 40.22 1214:14
91 Oliver Kapanen 000 0 20.09 0113:34
15 Alex Newhook 011 0 30.15 1013:04
93 Ivan Demidov 112 0 40.73 0012:50
76 Zachary Bolduc 000 +1 10.21 4011:03
7 Brendan Gallagher 000 0 20.01 0008:48
Defense
53 Noah Dobson 000 0 50.12 1123:39
48 Lane Hutson 011 +1 60.07 0323:30
21 Kaiden Guhle 011 -1 50.37 1223:19
8 Mike Matheson 000 0 40.28 2222:59
45 Alexandre Carrier 000 0 00.00 2415:34
3 Jayden Struble 000 +2 20.07 3009:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jacob Fowler 34232 .941 3.67 +1.67

Ottawa Senators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Tim Stützle 022 +1 60.13 1121:16
19 Drake Batherson 202 +1 61.15 6118:55
24 Dylan Cozens 000 0 70.72 5017:07
12 Shane Pinto 000 -2 30.10 1016:36
8 Brady Tkachuk 011 0 70.28 1016:26
22 Michael Amadio 000 -2 20.33 2216:09
71 Ridly Greig 000 0 30.02 3014:45
28 Claude Giroux 011 +1 80.30 1014:42
21 Nick Cousins 000 -2 00.00 2013:05
20 Fabian Zetterlund 000 0 30.14 4011:34
37 Warren Foegele 000 0 50.16 1011:29
20 Lars Eller 000 0 20.05 0010:04
Defense
72 Thomas Chabot 000 -1 80.17 1428:32
10 Jordan Spence 000 0 20.05 0020:30
2 Artem Zub 000 -1 30.00 1020:18
43 Tyler Kleven 000 0 40.09 3119:49
4 Nick Jensen 000 0 00.00 1114:28
33 Nikolas Matinpalo 000 0 00.00 0111:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Linus Ullmark 23320 .870 3.17 +0.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
93 Ivan Demidov R +3.11 +1.45 +0.47 +1.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:50
48 Lane Hutson D +1.86 +0.70 +0.05 +1.30 -0.30 0.00 +0.11 — 23:30
32 Jacob Fowler G +1.82 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +1.67 60:00
21 Kaiden Guhle D +1.71 +0.55 +0.24 +0.65 +0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 23:19
15 Alex Newhook C +1.31 +0.70 +0.10 +0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:04
20 Juraj Slafkovský L +1.30 +0.75 +0.99 -0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 19:43
71 Jake Evans C +1.09 +0.55 0.00 +0.49 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 17:21
76 Zachary Bolduc R +1.01 0.00 +0.14 +0.85 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:03
91 Oliver Kapanen C +0.76 0.00 +0.06 +0.70 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 13:34
85 Alexandre Texier L +0.74 +0.75 +0.10 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:49
47 Jayden Struble D +0.59 0.00 +0.04 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:12
17 Josh Anderson R +0.55 0.00 +0.24 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 14:30
77 Kirby Dach C +0.54 0.00 +0.14 +0.33 0.00 -0.01 +0.08 — 14:14
45 Alexandre Carrier D +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 15:34
53 Noah Dobson D +0.25 0.00 +0.08 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:39
24 Phillip Danault C +0.23 0.00 0.00 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 15:33
14 Nick Suzuki C +0.20 +0.55 +0.08 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:45
11 Brendan Gallagher R +0.14 0.00 +0.01 +0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 8:48
8 Mike Matheson D +0.10 0.00 +0.18 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:59

Ottawa Senators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Drake Batherson R +2.69 +1.50 +0.75 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:55
18 Tim Stützle C +1.45 +1.25 +0.08 +0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 21:16
7 Brady Tkachuk L +1.20 +0.70 +0.18 +0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:26
28 Claude Giroux R +0.70 +0.55 +0.19 -0.04 0.00 -0.02 +0.02 — 14:42
24 Dylan Cozens C +0.67 0.00 +0.47 +0.33 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 17:07
43 Tyler Kleven D +0.29 0.00 +0.06 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:49
10 Jordan Spence D +0.23 0.00 +0.03 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:30
35 Linus Ullmark G +0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.17 57:38
71 Ridly Greig C +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 14:45
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.14 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 11:51
20 Fabian Zetterlund L -0.16 0.00 +0.09 -0.38 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:34
3 Nick Jensen D -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:28
37 Warren Foegele L -0.54 0.00 +0.10 -0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:29
89 Lars Eller C -0.65 0.00 +0.03 -0.71 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 10:04
22 Michael Amadio R -0.66 0.00 +0.21 -1.12 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 16:09
72 Thomas Chabot D -0.78 0.00 +0.11 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 28:32
12 Shane Pinto C -1.04 0.00 +0.06 -0.94 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:36
21 Nick Cousins C -1.19 0.00 0.00 -1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:05
2 Artem Zub D -1.26 0.00 0.00 -1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:18

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.