hockeystats.io

Washington CapitalsWSH 2–1 Final Buffalo SabresBUF

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 011 2 22
Buffalo SabresBUF 100 1 30
Playoff odds, % Change
WSH +1.8
BUF -0.2
NYI -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:02 BUF Sam Carrick (6) Beck Malenstyn (5), Owen Power (17) · tip-in xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:14 WSH Ryan Leonard (14) Unassisted · snap xG 0.11 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
18:27 WSH Jakob Chychrun (23) Aliaksei Protas (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7) · snap xG 0.12 2–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 41%Deserve to win59% BUF
WSHBUF
3.11Expected goals3.10
2Goals (no shootout)1
2.07Expected goals, 5 on 52.31
51Shot attempts67
40Unblocked attempts50
22Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
13:10 WSH Goalie Goalie · Lindgren +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 29 shots on goal
18:33 BUF Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Luukkonen, down 2–1
With 1:27 left

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ BUF shoots
Tage Thompson: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:55) Josh Doan: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 1:59) Sam Carrick: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:53) Tanner Pearson: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 2:56) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:11) Bowen Byram: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:14) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:24) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:29) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:46) Beck Malenstyn: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:54) Rasmus Dahlin: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:34) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 8:39) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:52) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:52) Jack Quinn: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:15) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:39) Peyton Krebs: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:42) Dylan Strome: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:07) Ryan Leonard: snap, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:40) Zach Benson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 13:20) Connor McMichael: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:08) Connor McMichael: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:10) Jack Quinn: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:11) Mattias Samuelsson: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:57) Josh Norris: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 18:04) Josh Doan: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:05) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:58) Tage Thompson: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:03) Tage Thompson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:08) Tage Thompson: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:13) Tage Thompson: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:31) Josh Doan: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:01) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:49) Bowen Byram: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:00) Tom Wilson: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 4:24) Beck Malenstyn: backhand, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:57) Martin Fehérváry: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:30) Jason Zucker: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:57) Matt Roy: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:13) Sam Carrick: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:29) Tanner Pearson: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:39) Trevor van Riemsdyk: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:54) Luke Schenn: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:25) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:51) Tom Wilson: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:06) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:14) Tom Wilson: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:45) Logan Stanley: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:30) Tom Wilson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:03) Josh Norris: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 16:39) Jason Zucker: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:22) Josh Doan: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:56) Tage Thompson: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:20) Noah Ostlund: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:05) Rasmus Sandin: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:40) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 0:43) Bowen Byram: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 1:51) Tom Wilson: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:18) Josh Doan: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:33) Timothy Liljegren: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:58) Timothy Liljegren: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:02) Ryan McLeod: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:20) Hendrix Lapierre: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 4:46) Tom Wilson: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:23) Pierre-Luc Dubois: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 7:05) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:39) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:48) Connor McMichael: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:05) Justin Sourdif: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:32) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 8:35) Tage Thompson: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:59) Jakob Chychrun: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:31) Tage Thompson: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:29) Anthony Beauvillier: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:42) Jason Zucker: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 12:48) Owen Power: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:52) Jack Quinn: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:10) Ryan McLeod: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:11) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 14:31) Logan Stanley: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:50) Tom Wilson: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:36) Trevor van Riemsdyk: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.47 (P3 15:39) Aliaksei Protas: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:43) Bowen Byram: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:50) Trevor van Riemsdyk: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:19) Aliaksei Protas: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:20) Connor McMichael: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.54 (P3 19:13) Sam Carrick: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:02) Ryan Leonard: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:14) Jakob Chychrun: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:27)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 0 80.54 2020:34
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 000 0 30.17 2119:41
21 Aliaksei Protas 011 +1 30.11 0016:31
17 Dylan Strome 000 +1 10.00 0015:25
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 20.03 4114:50
77 Connor McMichael 000 0 40.72 2114:15
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 0 20.04 0014:07
8 Alex Ovechkin 000 -1 70.28 1214:03
9 Ryan Leonard 101 +2 30.12 1013:46
22 Hendrix Lapierre 000 0 10.10 1113:17
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 20.00 3512:17
53 Ethen Frank 000 0 00.00 1110:30
Defense
3 Matt Roy 000 -1 20.02 1221:46
6 Jakob Chychrun 101 +2 30.14 0120:25
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 0 20.02 1119:56
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -1 30.27 1019:47
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 011 +1 30.50 0119:00
27 Timothy Liljegren 000 +1 20.05 2015:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Charlie Lindgren 30129 .967 3.10 +2.10

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 000 0 150.35 2022:04
71 Ryan McLeod 000 -1 30.19 0117:26
6 Zach Benson 000 0 20.19 0117:15
17 Jason Zucker 000 -1 50.28 5117:07
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.02 0116:49
22 Jack Quinn 000 -1 50.14 1016:19
9 Josh Norris 000 -1 20.35 1015:45
91 Josh Doan 000 -1 50.40 0014:42
19 Peyton Krebs 000 -1 10.06 4113:44
10 Sam Carrick 101 +1 40.14 1110:51
29 Beck Malenstyn 011 +1 30.07 3110:25
70 Tanner Pearson 000 +1 30.39 0008:58
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 0 40.16 1023:28
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 40.13 1223:02
25 Owen Power 011 0 30.04 0021:29
23 Mattias Samuelsson 000 0 30.06 2220:30
2 Luke Schenn 000 -1 10.01 2114:31
8 Logan Stanley 000 -1 20.11 1013:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 22220 .909 2.57 +0.57

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
79 Charlie Lindgren G +2.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.10 60:00
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D +1.40 +0.55 +0.33 +0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:00
24 Connor McMichael L +1.08 0.00 +0.47 +0.76 -0.15 -0.05 +0.05 — 14:15
43 Tom Wilson R +0.89 0.00 +0.35 +0.57 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 20:34
6 Jakob Chychrun D +0.80 +0.75 +0.09 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 20:25
9 Ryan Leonard R +0.57 +0.75 +0.08 -0.40 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:46
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois C +0.50 0.00 +0.11 +0.33 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 19:41
21 Aliaksei Protas L +0.24 +0.70 +0.07 -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:31
42 Martin Fehérváry D +0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 19:56
22 Brandon Duhaime L +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 12:17
53 Ethen Frank R +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 10:30
34 Justin Sourdif C +0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.12 +0.15 -0.01 +0.03 — 14:50
29 Hendrix Lapierre C -0.05 0.00 +0.07 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:17
38 Rasmus Sandin D -0.06 0.00 +0.18 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:47
8 Alex Ovechkin L -0.09 0.00 +0.18 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:03
27 Timothy Liljegren D -0.12 0.00 +0.03 -0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:50
72 Anthony Beauvillier R -0.20 0.00 +0.03 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:07
3 Matt Roy D -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:46
17 Dylan Strome C -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:25

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 Sam Carrick C +1.60 +0.75 +0.09 +0.71 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 10:51
29 Beck Malenstyn L +1.56 +0.70 +0.05 +0.83 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:25
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.94 0.00 +0.04 +0.80 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:30
70 Tanner Pearson L +0.87 0.00 +0.25 +0.77 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:58
26 Rasmus Dahlin D +0.63 0.00 +0.10 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 23:28
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +0.57 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.57 58:33
72 Tage Thompson C +0.41 0.00 +0.23 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 — 22:04
9 Josh Norris C +0.41 0.00 +0.23 +0.03 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:45
91 Josh Doan R +0.40 0.00 +0.26 +0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:42
25 Owen Power D +0.31 +0.55 +0.03 -0.40 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:29
6 Zach Benson L +0.08 0.00 +0.12 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:15
86 Noah Ostlund C +0.01 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 16:49
19 Peyton Krebs C 0.00 0.00 +0.04 -0.11 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 13:44
64 Logan Stanley D -0.09 0.00 +0.07 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:02
5 Luke Schenn D -0.12 0.00 +0.01 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 14:31
4 Bowen Byram D -0.39 0.00 +0.09 -0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 23:02
71 Ryan McLeod C -0.42 0.00 +0.12 -0.69 0.00 +0.07 +0.07 — 17:26
17 Jason Zucker L -0.50 0.00 +0.18 -0.72 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 17:07
22 Jack Quinn R -0.62 0.00 +0.09 -0.69 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:19

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.