hockeystats.io

Buffalo SabresBUF 2–0 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Buffalo SabresBUF 101 2 25
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 000 0 29
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK -3.4
BUF +0.1
SJS +1.0
SEA +0.7
LAK +0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 17, 2026 9:15 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
18:02 BUF Josh Doan (22) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
19:02 BUF Josh Norris (10)EN Peyton Krebs (22), Mattias Samuelsson (25) · wrist xG 0.89 2–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

BUF 36%Deserve to win64% VGK
BUFVGK
3.18Expected goals3.11
2Goals (no shootout)0
1.83Expected goals, 5 on 52.40
50Shot attempts63
38Unblocked attempts48
25Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
10:02 BUF Goalie Goalie · Luukkonen +2.1 goals saved
0 goals on 2.07 xG, 15 shots on goal
3rd Period
18:31 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hill, down 1–0
With 1:29 left; BUF scored at 19:02 of the 3rd (2–0)

Shot map

BUF shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Cole Smith: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:35) Rasmus Dahlin: backhand, 182 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 0:40) Shea Theodore: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:06) Mitch Marner: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 1:38) Mark Stone: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:05) Mitch Marner: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:38) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:33) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 4:04) Tage Thompson: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 4:19) Zach Benson: backhand, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:32) Josh Norris: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:37) Josh Norris: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:49) Josh Norris: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 5:51) Mark Stone: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:15) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:24) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 7:11) Mattias Samuelsson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:59) Brayden McNabb: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:03) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 10:29) Keegan Kolesar: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:03) Nic Dowd: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:08) Josh Norris: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:26) Brett Howden: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 12:51) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:27) Jack Quinn: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 14:35) Jack Quinn: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:02) Mattias Samuelsson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:16) Rasmus Dahlin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:24) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 16:25) Colton Sissons: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:34) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:42) Tomas Hertl: deflected, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 18:50) Rasmus Andersson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:59) Tage Thompson: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:47) Josh Doan: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:58) Bowen Byram: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:09) Zach Benson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:52) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:53) Logan Stanley: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:17) Zach Metsa: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:24) Beck Malenstyn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:31) Nic Dowd: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 7:42) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 8:32) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 3 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 8:33) Mark Stone: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:39) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 10:02) Mark Stone: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:03) Brett Howden: deflected, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:14) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:54) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:06) Zach Metsa: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:00) Shea Theodore: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:41) Zach Benson: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:50) Zach Benson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 13:52) Cole Smith: tip-in, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:18) Josh Doan: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:48) Josh Norris: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:51) Shea Theodore: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:37) Tage Thompson: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:11) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:57) Jeremy Lauzon: wrist, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:15) Mark Stone: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:09) Jack Eichel: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:24) Josh Norris: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 1:47) Rasmus Dahlin: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:50) Jason Zucker: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:00) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:25) Jack Eichel: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:11) Jack Quinn: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:40) Zach Benson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:58) Jack Quinn: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:45) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:13) Ivan Barbashev: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:14) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 11:22) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:29) Noah Ostlund: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:37) Colton Sissons: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:49) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:34) Mitch Marner: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 14:55) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:02) Brayden McNabb: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:04) Braeden Bowman: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:07) Tyson Kozak: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 17:23) Mark Stone: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:37) Josh Doan: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:02) Josh Norris: GOAL, wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.89 (P3 19:02)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Buffalo Sabres

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
72 Tage Thompson 000 0 40.22 2219:21
6 Zach Benson 000 0 50.44 1017:17
71 Ryan McLeod 000 0 00.00 1016:58
86 Noah Ostlund 000 0 20.06 0015:46
22 Jack Quinn 000 0 50.30 1115:41
17 Jason Zucker 000 0 10.04 1014:55
10 Sam Carrick 000 0 00.00 1013:40
91 Josh Doan 101 +2 30.21 1013:30
9 Josh Norris 101 +2 71.47 0213:28
29 Beck Malenstyn 000 0 10.06 4212:30
48 Tyson Kozak 000 0 10.11 4011:10
19 Peyton Krebs 011 +2 00.00 1011:10
Defense
26 Rasmus Dahlin 000 +1 70.18 0022:51
23 Mattias Samuelsson 011 +1 50.06 0322:20
25 Owen Power 000 0 00.00 0121:41
24 Bowen Byram 000 0 20.03 1121:31
8 Logan Stanley 000 +1 30.01 1116:18
73 Zach Metsa 000 +1 40.01 0011:53
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 29029 1.000 3.11 +3.11

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 000 -1 50.28 0022:23
9 Jack Eichel 000 -2 40.07 0020:06
61 Mark Stone 000 -2 60.46 1119:10
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -1 50.49 5017:39
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 -1 40.18 0017:18
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 -1 20.05 2014:31
42 Braeden Bowman 000 0 20.31 0114:04
21 Brett Howden 000 0 20.06 3113:56
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 30.13 2213:49
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 20.12 3011:17
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 0 10.04 3110:40
22 Cole Smith 000 0 20.07 4010:03
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -1 60.29 0221:15
27 Shea Theodore 000 0 60.18 0020:37
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -2 40.03 0120:23
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 50.28 2118:37
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 40.07 3115:40
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 00.00 0113:03
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 24123 .958 2.29 +1.29

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Buffalo Sabres

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G +3.11 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +3.11 60:00
9 Josh Norris C +2.72 +0.75 +0.95 +0.93 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 13:28
91 Josh Doan R +1.79 +0.75 +0.14 +0.86 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 13:30
19 Peyton Krebs C +1.45 +0.70 0.00 +0.75 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
23 Mattias Samuelsson D +0.51 +0.55 +0.04 -0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 22:20
73 Zach Metsa D +0.51 0.00 +0.01 +0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:53
6 Zach Benson L +0.31 0.00 +0.29 -0.13 +0.15 -0.01 +0.02 — 17:17
72 Tage Thompson C +0.21 0.00 +0.14 -0.15 +0.15 -0.02 +0.08 — 19:21
64 Logan Stanley D +0.03 0.00 +0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:18
26 Rasmus Dahlin D -0.13 0.00 +0.11 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:51
29 Beck Malenstyn L -0.16 0.00 +0.04 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 12:30
48 Tyson Kozak C -0.23 0.00 +0.07 -0.31 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 11:10
86 Noah Ostlund C -0.26 0.00 +0.04 -0.27 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:46
4 Bowen Byram D -0.31 0.00 +0.02 -0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:31
22 Jack Quinn R -0.50 0.00 +0.19 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:41
10 Sam Carrick C -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.47 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:40
71 Ryan McLeod C -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:58
25 Owen Power D -0.85 0.00 0.00 -0.75 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 21:41
17 Jason Zucker L -0.95 0.00 +0.03 -0.94 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 14:55

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
33 Adin Hill G +1.29 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.29 59:29
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.02 0.00 +0.32 +0.56 +0.15 +0.01 -0.02 — 17:39
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.75 0.00 +0.04 +0.70 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 15:40
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:03
10 Colton Sissons C +0.64 0.00 +0.09 +0.43 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 — 13:49
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.63 0.00 +0.20 +0.54 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:04
21 Brett Howden C +0.60 0.00 +0.04 +0.55 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:56
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.56 0.00 +0.12 +0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:18
93 Mitch Marner R +0.44 0.00 +0.18 +0.29 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 22:23
22 Cole Smith R +0.32 0.00 +0.05 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:03
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.24 0.00 +0.19 -0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:15
27 Shea Theodore D +0.14 0.00 +0.12 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:37
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.09 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:40
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.02 0.00 +0.18 -0.02 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 18:37
26 Nic Dowd C -0.02 0.00 +0.08 -0.10 0.00 +0.05 -0.04 — 11:17
15 Noah Hanifin D -0.16 0.00 +0.02 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 20:23
61 Mark Stone R -0.18 0.00 +0.30 -0.54 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 19:10
49 Ivan Barbashev L -0.30 0.00 +0.04 -0.45 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 14:31
9 Jack Eichel C -0.60 0.00 +0.05 -0.58 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 20:06

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.