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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 5–6 Final/OT Carolina HurricanesCAR

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 0140 5 35
Carolina HurricanesCAR 1131 6 44
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -4.0
CAR +0.1
OTT +0.9
NYI +0.8
CBJ +0.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 18, 2026 6:39 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
9:34 CAR Jordan Martinook (10)SH Jordan Staal (13), Jaccob Slavin (4) · wrist xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
9:57 PIT Sidney Crosby (28) Rickard Rakell (20), Erik Karlsson (43) · backhand xG 0.17 1–1 ▶
16:51 CAR Jackson Blake (20) Taylor Hall (23), Nikolaj Ehlers (34) · backhand xG 0.25 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
0:59 PIT Erik Karlsson (8)PP Rickard Rakell (21), Evgeni Malkin (36) · slap xG 0.09 2–2 ▶
3:27 CAR Taylor Hall (15) Jackson Blake (22), Logan Stankoven (18) · backhand xG 0.23 2–3 ▶
7:16 PIT Bryan Rust (26) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.16 3–3 ▶
12:59 CAR Logan Stankoven (14)PP Nikolaj Ehlers (35), Jackson Blake (23) · snap xG 0.20 3–4 ▶
14:46 PIT Erik Karlsson (9) Parker Wotherspoon (21), Sidney Crosby (33) · snap xG 0.05 4–4 ▶
15:09 PIT Ben Kindel (17) Anthony Mantha (27), Ilya Solovyov (7) · snap xG 0.30 5–4 ▶
17:09 CAR K'Andre Miller (5) Sean Walker (16), Nikolaj Ehlers (36) · snap xG 0.04 5–5 ▶
Overtime
4:31 CAR Sean Walker (7) Sebastian Aho (45), Seth Jarvis (26) · slap xG 0.17 5–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 35%Deserve to win65% CAR
PITCAR
3.90Expected goals4.98
5Goals (no shootout)6
2.61Expected goals, 5 on 54.07
52Shot attempts82
42Unblocked attempts65
35Shots on goal44

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
2:09 CAR Deserve to win Deserve to win · CAR takes the lead, 61–39%
PIT had led since 5:28 of the 1st, by as much as 65%
7:10 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.45–0.03
In xG over 10 minutes, 17:20 of the 1st to 7:20 of the 2nd; neither team scored
13:13 PIT Goalie Goalie · Skinner +2.0 goals saved
1 goal on 3.02 xG, 26 shots on goal

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ CAR shoots
Sebastian Aho: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 0:07) Seth Jarvis: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:17) Bryan Rust: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:35) Sidney Crosby: bat, 8 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:36) Jordan Staal: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 1:06) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:06) Anthony Mantha: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:29) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 4:10) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:26) Noel Acciari: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 5:28) Noel Acciari: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 5:32) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:24) Jordan Staal: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 6:45) Nikolaj Ehlers: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 7:10) Connor Dewar: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:10) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:10) Jordan Martinook: backhand, 133 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 10:54) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:09) Taylor Hall: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 11:46) Jackson Blake: wrist, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:04) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:10) Sean Walker: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:38) K'Andre Miller: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:41) Jaccob Slavin: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:05) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:10) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:01) Bryan Rust: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:24) Noel Acciari: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 17:08) Connor Dewar: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:09) Noel Acciari: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:10) Connor Dewar: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 17:16) Eric Robinson: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:26) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:51) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:02) Sebastian Aho: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:18) Sean Walker: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:33) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:57) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.31 (P1 19:59) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:09) Mike Reilly: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:18) Eric Robinson: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 2:21) Mark Jankowski: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 2:41) Sean Walker: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:24) Jordan Martinook: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:26) Jordan Martinook: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:27) Erik Karlsson: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:26) Sean Walker: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:08) Sebastian Aho: slap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:42) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:14) Jordan Staal: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:12) Sean Walker: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 8:17) Sean Walker: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:29) Anthony Mantha: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:27) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:29) Taylor Hall: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:14) Jackson Blake: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 10:58) Connor Dewar: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 11:25) Seth Jarvis: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:13) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:06) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:18) Erik Karlsson: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:14) Rickard Rakell: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:15) Erik Karlsson: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:39) Bryan Rust: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:56) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:27) Bryan Rust: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 1:50) Bryan Rust: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 2:20) Bryan Rust: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:26) Jordan Staal: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:34) Logan Stankoven: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:48) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:09) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:33) Tommy Novak: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:09) Justin Brazeau: deflected, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 8:38) Mike Reilly: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:11) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:34) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:34) Jordan Martinook: backhand, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:59) Alexander Nikishin: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:02) Eric Robinson: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:03) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:04) Sean Walker: wrist, 88 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:32) Jordan Staal: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:43) Seth Jarvis: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 13:55) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 15:34) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 117 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:43) Logan Stankoven: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:58) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:22) Sidney Crosby: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:30) Sidney Crosby: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 17:46) Noel Acciari: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 18:03) Taylor Hall: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:37) Jordan Martinook: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:16) Kris Letang: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 2:14) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 2:25) Ben Kindel: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.22 (OT 4:12) Jordan Martinook: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 9:34) Sidney Crosby: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 9:57) Jackson Blake: GOAL, backhand, 5 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 16:51) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, slap, 44 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 0:59) Taylor Hall: GOAL, backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 3:27) Bryan Rust: GOAL, backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:16) Logan Stankoven: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 12:59) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:46) Ben Kindel: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.30 (P3 15:09) K'Andre Miller: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:09) Sean Walker: GOAL, slap, 34 ft, xG 0.17 (OT 4:31)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Evgeni Malkin 011 -1 10.00 0021:43
67 Rickard Rakell 022 +2 10.03 1020:46
87 Sidney Crosby 112 0 50.38 2118:33
17 Bryan Rust 101 +2 70.75 0018:33
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 20.13 0117:44
39 Anthony Mantha 011 -1 40.13 1017:24
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 0 60.41 2116:49
81 Ben Kindel 101 0 20.52 0014:36
52 Noel Acciari 000 -2 60.68 1113:18
19 Connor Dewar 000 -1 40.36 5112:53
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 20.01 1110:57
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 -1 20.16 2009:59
Defense
58 Kris Letang 000 -2 20.10 1225:28
65 Erik Karlsson 213 0 60.24 0124:02
6 Ryan Shea 000 -1 10.00 2121:59
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 +1 00.00 2118:54
75 Connor Clifton 000 +1 00.00 3414:34
7 Ilya Solovyov 011 0 10.00 1112:39
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 44638 .864 4.98 -1.02

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 011 -2 80.66 2020:56
24 Seth Jarvis 011 -2 60.61 1020:03
53 Jackson Blake 123 +1 60.44 0118:06
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -3 10.07 3018:02
11 Jordan Staal 011 +1 50.40 4218:00
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 033 +2 40.06 1017:50
48 Jordan Martinook 101 +2 60.51 2016:38
71 Taylor Hall 112 +1 70.47 1015:38
22 Logan Stankoven 112 +2 70.58 1015:19
77 Mark Jankowski 000 0 40.24 0108:39
50 Eric Robinson 000 0 40.25 1007:55
28 William Carrier 000 0 00.00 2006:51
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 101 +3 40.05 3225:19
74 Jaccob Slavin 011 -2 30.03 0123:52
26 Sean Walker 112 +2 80.35 2122:17
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 -2 10.00 2120:43
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 -1 40.21 1016:20
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 40.06 0013:34
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 35530 .857 3.90 -1.10

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
65 Erik Karlsson D +2.29 +2.05 +0.16 +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:02
67 Rickard Rakell R +1.78 +1.40 +0.02 +0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:46
17 Bryan Rust R +1.60 +0.75 +0.49 +0.37 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 18:33
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.60 +1.30 +0.25 -0.01 0.00 +0.06 +0.01 — 18:33
75 Connor Clifton D +0.91 0.00 0.00 +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 14:34
81 Ben Kindel C +0.76 +0.75 +0.34 -0.29 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 14:36
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.67 +0.70 0.00 +0.11 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 18:54
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.44 +0.70 +0.08 -0.32 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:24
7 Ilya Solovyov D +0.42 +0.55 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:39
71 Evgeni Malkin C -0.04 +0.55 0.00 -0.85 +0.30 0.00 -0.04 — 21:43
55 Noel Acciari C -0.14 0.00 +0.44 -0.61 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 13:18
19 Connor Dewar C -0.18 0.00 +0.24 -0.45 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 12:53
16 Justin Brazeau R -0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:57
25 Elmer Soderblom L -0.25 0.00 +0.11 -0.48 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:59
59 Egor Chinakhov R -0.34 0.00 +0.26 -0.63 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:49
18 Tommy Novak C -0.67 0.00 +0.09 -0.78 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 17:44
74 Stuart Skinner G -1.02 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.02 64:31
5 Ryan Shea D -1.77 0.00 0.00 -1.82 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:59
58 Kris Letang D -2.04 0.00 +0.07 -2.20 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:28

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
26 Sean Walker D +3.67 +1.45 +0.23 +1.94 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:17
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +3.03 +1.80 +0.04 +1.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:50
19 K'Andre Miller D +2.96 +0.75 +0.03 +2.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 25:19
53 Jackson Blake R +2.87 +2.00 +0.28 +0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:06
71 Taylor Hall L +2.49 +1.45 +0.31 +0.59 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:38
22 Logan Stankoven C +2.40 +1.30 +0.38 +0.72 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:19
48 Jordan Martinook L +1.84 +0.75 +0.33 +0.78 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:38
11 Jordan Staal C +1.73 +0.70 +0.26 +0.76 -0.15 +0.04 +0.12 — 18:00
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.25 +0.70 +0.43 +0.03 +0.15 -0.02 -0.04 — 20:56
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.74 +0.55 +0.40 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 20:03
50 Eric Robinson L +0.46 0.00 +0.16 +0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:55
6 Mike Reilly D +0.26 0.00 +0.04 +0.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:34
28 William Carrier L +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 6:51
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.08 +0.55 +0.02 -0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 23:52
77 Mark Jankowski L +0.07 0.00 +0.15 +0.01 -0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 8:39
37 Andrei Svechnikov R -0.21 0.00 +0.04 -0.08 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 18:02
5 Jalen Chatfield D -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.49 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:43
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.77 0.00 +0.13 -0.89 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:20
31 Frederik Andersen G -1.10 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.10 64:31

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.