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Carolina HurricanesCAR 5–1 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 131 5 26
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 001 1 19
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -3.8
CAR +0.0
NYI +1.1
PHI +0.7
CBJ +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 22, 2026 3:03 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:47 CAR Sebastian Aho (25)PP Seth Jarvis (29) · wrist xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
6:24 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (21)PP Seth Jarvis (30), Alexander Nikishin (18) · slap xG 0.07 2–0 ▶
9:15 CAR Jalen Chatfield (2) Eric Robinson (6) · slap xG 0.01 3–0 ▶
17:20 CAR Seth Jarvis (29)PP Nikolaj Ehlers (37), Andrei Svechnikov (35) · snap xG 0.21 4–0 ▶
3rd Period
14:56 PIT Egor Chinakhov (16) Bryan Rust (31), Sidney Crosby (35) · snap xG 0.22 4–1 ▶
18:56 CAR Mark Jankowski (8)EN Jackson Blake (24), Logan Stankoven (19) · wrist xG 0.90 5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 73%Deserve to win27% PIT
CARPIT
5.94Expected goals2.43
5Goals (no shootout)1
1.78Expected goals, 5 on 52.05
66Shot attempts50
53Unblocked attempts34
26Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
17:20 CAR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.22–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 10:50 of the 2nd to 0:50 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
15:50 PIT Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Skinner, down 4–1
With 4:10 left; CAR scored at 18:56 of the 3rd (5–1)

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:22) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:04) Jordan Martinook: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:17) William Carrier: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 5:45) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:04) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:08) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 9:41) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:46) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:34) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:49) Jordan Martinook: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 10:57) Andrei Svechnikov: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:03) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:10) Seth Jarvis: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 11:19) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:27) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 11:55) Rickard Rakell: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:02) Ryan Graves: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:35) Bryan Rust: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 15:10) Bryan Rust: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:11) Jackson Blake: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 17:31) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:33) Alexander Nikishin: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:45) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:46) Noel Acciari: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 18:05) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:17) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:37) Noel Acciari: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:47) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:03) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:42) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:28) Tommy Novak: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:02) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 4:05) Ben Kindel: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:58) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 8:36) Mark Jankowski: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:09) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:37) Bryan Rust: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:44) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 10:45) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:17) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 12:18) Sebastian Aho: backhand, 2 ft, xG 0.71 (P2 12:20) Sean Walker: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:41) Andrei Svechnikov: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 15:22) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 15:26) Eric Robinson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:42) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:45) Andrei Svechnikov: tip-in, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:00) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:57) Bryan Rust: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:24) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:35) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:43) Mike Reilly: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:17) Sidney Crosby: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:12) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:49) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 5:22) Connor Clifton: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:17) Jordan Staal: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:15) Jordan Staal: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:35) Seth Jarvis: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 8:11) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 8:23) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 8:55) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:01) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:08) Jackson Blake: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 9:16) Eric Robinson: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:27) Ryan Graves: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 9:46) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:07) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 11:25) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:33) Elmer Soderblom: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:12) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:55) Ben Kindel: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:48) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 29 ft, xG 0.51 (P3 16:55) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 16:56) Egor Chinakhov: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:30) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:11) Ben Kindel: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:11) Jackson Blake: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.55 (P3 18:41) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 93 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:11) Sidney Crosby: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 19:29) Sebastian Aho: GOAL, wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 0:47) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, slap, 52 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 6:24) Jalen Chatfield: GOAL, slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:15) Seth Jarvis: GOAL, snap, 14 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 17:20) Egor Chinakhov: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 14:56) Mark Jankowski: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.90 (P3 18:56)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 101 0 70.95 1019:43
24 Seth Jarvis 123 0 60.56 0018:03
37 Andrei Svechnikov 011 0 131.14 0017:17
53 Jackson Blake 011 0 30.91 0016:32
22 Logan Stankoven 011 0 70.50 0116:20
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 112 0 50.32 1116:15
71 Taylor Hall 000 -1 00.00 3016:04
11 Jordan Staal 000 0 20.10 3015:25
48 Jordan Martinook 000 0 20.15 0113:07
50 Eric Robinson 011 +1 30.11 2012:39
28 William Carrier 000 +1 10.13 4111:00
77 Mark Jankowski 101 +2 20.92 0010:53
Defense
19 K'Andre Miller 000 0 40.04 3224:36
26 Sean Walker 000 +1 10.01 2421:50
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 +1 20.01 0120:46
5 Jalen Chatfield 101 0 20.03 0119:36
21 Alexander Nikishin 011 0 20.01 2216:15
6 Mike Reilly 000 0 30.03 0011:09
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 19118 .947 2.43 +1.43

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
67 Rickard Rakell 000 -1 30.10 0020:01
87 Sidney Crosby 011 0 40.28 0019:13
17 Bryan Rust 011 0 60.18 2219:07
71 Evgeni Malkin 000 -2 10.00 1116:05
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 50.24 1015:37
59 Egor Chinakhov 101 0 80.36 1115:16
19 Connor Dewar 000 0 00.00 4114:33
52 Noel Acciari 000 0 40.16 3214:07
18 Tommy Novak 000 -1 30.26 0013:53
39 Anthony Mantha 000 0 00.00 1011:47
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 40.55 1111:05
25 Elmer Soderblom 000 0 10.08 2110:02
Defense
58 Kris Letang 000 -1 00.00 3222:26
65 Erik Karlsson 000 -2 60.07 1121:47
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 -1 10.00 3020:53
49 Samuel Girard 000 0 10.00 0019:35
75 Connor Clifton 000 +1 10.01 3018:51
27 Ryan Graves 000 +1 20.14 3012:45
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 25421 .840 3.83 -0.17

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
24 Seth Jarvis C +2.29 +2.15 +0.36 -0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:03
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +2.07 +1.45 +0.21 +0.26 +0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 16:15
31 Frederik Andersen G +1.43 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.43 59:52
53 Jackson Blake R +1.36 +0.70 +0.59 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:32
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +1.34 +0.55 +0.74 -0.08 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:17
20 Sebastian Aho C +1.20 +0.75 +0.62 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 19:43
77 Mark Jankowski L +1.03 +0.75 +0.60 -0.36 0.00 +0.06 -0.02 — 10:53
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.74 +0.75 +0.02 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:36
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.74 +0.55 +0.33 -0.14 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 16:20
21 Alexander Nikishin D +0.55 +0.55 +0.01 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:15
48 Jordan Martinook L +0.52 0.00 +0.10 +0.21 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:07
50 Eric Robinson L +0.42 +0.70 +0.07 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:39
11 Jordan Staal C +0.40 0.00 +0.06 +0.35 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:25
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:46
26 Sean Walker D +0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 21:50
71 Taylor Hall L -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.14 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 16:04
19 K'Andre Miller D -0.14 0.00 +0.03 -0.42 +0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 24:36
28 William Carrier L -0.22 0.00 +0.08 -0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:00
6 Mike Reilly D -0.54 0.00 +0.02 -0.26 -0.30 0.00 0.00 — 11:09

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
59 Egor Chinakhov R +1.38 +0.75 +0.23 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:16
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.36 +0.55 +0.18 +0.56 0.00 +0.09 -0.02 — 19:13
17 Bryan Rust R +1.28 +0.70 +0.12 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:07
75 Connor Clifton D +1.08 0.00 +0.01 +1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:51
16 Justin Brazeau R +1.01 0.00 +0.36 +0.45 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 11:05
81 Ben Kindel C +0.44 0.00 +0.15 +0.27 0.00 -0.03 +0.04 — 15:37
27 Ryan Graves D +0.26 0.00 +0.09 +0.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 12:45
55 Noel Acciari C +0.15 0.00 +0.11 -0.18 +0.15 -0.01 +0.08 — 14:07
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:53
18 Tommy Novak C -0.02 0.00 +0.17 -0.18 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:53
67 Rickard Rakell R -0.13 0.00 +0.06 -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 20:01
39 Anthony Mantha R -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.04 -0.08 0.00 -0.02 — 11:47
19 Connor Dewar C -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 14:33
74 Stuart Skinner G -0.17 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.17 56:54
65 Erik Karlsson D -0.24 0.00 +0.05 -0.12 -0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 21:47
71 Evgeni Malkin C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.08 0.00 +0.01 — 16:05
25 Elmer Soderblom L -0.27 0.00 +0.05 -0.20 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 10:02
49 Samuel Girard D -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.16 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:35
58 Kris Letang D -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:26

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.