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San Jose SharksSJS 3–6 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
San Jose SharksSJS 111 3 30
Nashville PredatorsNSH 510 6 19
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH +8.5
SJS -6.5
WPG -0.8
LAK -0.6
STL -0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 24, 2026 7:45 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:34 NSH Filip Forsberg (33) Fedor Svechkov (11), Jonathan Marchessault (15) · tip-in xG 0.09 0–1 ▶
6:25 SJS Adam Gaudette (15) Shakir Mukhamadullin (7), Mario Ferraro (14) · tip-in xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
7:49 NSH Matthew Wood (16) Jonathan Marchessault (16) · wrist xG 0.08 1–2 ▶
11:40 NSH Roman Josi (12) Filip Forsberg (31) · wrist xG 0.13 1–3 ▶
12:26 NSH Luke Evangelista (10) Ryan O'Reilly (41), Brady Skjei (21) · deflected xG 0.13 1–4 ▶
16:36 NSH Brady Skjei (2) Ryan O'Reilly (42) · slap xG 0.02 1–5 ▶
2nd Period
12:38 NSH Steven Stamkos (35)PP Filip Forsberg (32), Jonathan Marchessault (17) · wrist xG 0.05 1–6 ▶
17:26 SJS Will Smith (20)PP Unassisted · wrist xG 0.27 2–6 ▶
3rd Period
1:40 SJS Will Smith (21) Igor Chernyshov (9), Vincent Desharnais (5) · backhand xG 0.15 3–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

SJS 55%Deserve to win45% NSH
SJSNSH
2.61Expected goals2.32
3Goals (no shootout)6
1.52Expected goals, 5 on 51.74
66Shot attempts43
50Unblocked attempts32
30Shots on goal19

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
11:40 SJS Goalie Goalie · Nedeljkovic −2.6 goals saved
3 goals on 0.45 xG, 5 shots on goal
16:36 SJS Goalie Goalie · Nedeljkovic −4.4 goals saved
5 goals on 0.63 xG, 7 shots on goal
2nd Period
15:59 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 61–39%
SJS had led since 1:10 of the 1st, by as much as 64%

Shot map

SJS shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Will Smith: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:00) John Klingberg: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 1:10) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:41) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:19) Collin Graf: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 3:24) Erik Haula: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:43) Ryan O'Reilly: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:31) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:57) Joakim Kemell: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:15) Nicolas Hague: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:17) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:51) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:03) Collin Graf: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 14:42) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:47) Filip Forsberg: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:04) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:46) Roman Josi: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 17:57) Roman Josi: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:07) Zack Ostapchuk: deflected, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:31) Zack Ostapchuk: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 18:32) Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:14) Brady Skjei: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:46) Will Smith: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:15) Pavol Regenda: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:45) Sam Dickinson: snap, 67 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 1:49) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:20) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:39) Collin Graf: backhand, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 4:02) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:09) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:53) John Klingberg: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:12) Roman Josi: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:14) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:04) John Klingberg: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:22) Tyson Jost: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 8:46) Filip Forsberg: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:16) Filip Forsberg: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:06) John Klingberg: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:10) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:40) Collin Graf: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:09) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:56) Shakir Mukhamadullin: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:13) Steven Stamkos: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 13:30) Alexander Wennberg: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:16) Will Smith: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:24) Joakim Kemell: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.28 (P2 15:59) Roman Josi: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:00) Macklin Celebrini: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:22) William Eklund: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:35) Alexander Wennberg: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:45) John Klingberg: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:57) Will Smith: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 1:04) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:12) Igor Chernyshov: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:36) Michael Misa: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:28) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:29) Adam Gaudette: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:57) Steven Stamkos: bat, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:21) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 3:38) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:40) Macklin Celebrini: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:49) Will Smith: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:58) Dmitry Orlov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:03) Igor Chernyshov: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:04) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:09) Brady Skjei: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:32) Will Smith: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 12:09) Alexander Wennberg: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:12) Mario Ferraro: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 14:10) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:55) Adam Wilsby: wrist, 175 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 15:58) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:41) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 171 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:14) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:34) Adam Gaudette: GOAL, tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:25) Matthew Wood: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 7:49) Roman Josi: GOAL, wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:40) Luke Evangelista: GOAL, deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 12:26) Brady Skjei: GOAL, slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:36) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:38) Will Smith: GOAL, wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 17:26) Will Smith: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 1:40)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Macklin Celebrini 000 -2 70.27 0021:05
2 Will Smith 202 0 80.78 0020:31
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 40.22 1318:54
27 William Eklund 000 0 10.08 0117:02
92 Igor Chernyshov 011 -1 20.08 1016:00
44 Kiefer Sherwood 000 -3 20.02 4015:36
77 Michael Misa 000 -2 10.03 0015:03
51 Collin Graf 000 0 40.36 0113:58
84 Pavol Regenda 000 -3 30.02 3013:44
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 +1 20.15 3111:06
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 +1 30.01 2110:58
81 Adam Gaudette 101 0 20.10 1109:14
Defense
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 -2 60.10 4023:09
38 Mario Ferraro 011 -1 40.02 0022:20
3 John Klingberg 000 -2 60.29 2119:07
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 011 0 20.06 2017:47
73 Vincent Desharnais 011 0 40.01 5116:57
6 Sam Dickinson 000 -1 50.02 0014:15
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 19613 .684 2.32 -3.68

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 20.21 2117:51
90 Ryan O'Reilly 022 +2 10.02 0016:31
68 Zachary L'Heureux 000 0 10.00 3215:51
56 Erik Haula 000 0 20.03 3115:47
71 Matthew Wood 101 +1 10.08 2115:43
9 Filip Forsberg 123 +2 50.44 1315:08
81 Jonathan Marchessault 033 +3 10.04 0014:44
77 Luke Evangelista 101 +1 20.35 1014:03
25 Joakim Kemell 000 -1 20.28 0013:19
91 Steven Stamkos 101 +2 30.36 1013:17
9 Fedor Svechkov 011 0 00.00 2011:59
49 Reid Schaefer 000 -1 30.00 4211:33
Defense
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 70.08 1023:37
59 Roman Josi 101 +3 50.35 0023:28
76 Brady Skjei 112 +4 30.05 0121:52
2 Adam Wilsby 000 -1 30.03 0219:11
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 10.00 0216:03
12 Ryan Ufko 000 0 10.00 0112:51
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Juuse Saros 30327 .900 2.61 -0.39

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
2 Will Smith C +2.08 +1.50 +0.51 +0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:31
81 Adam Gaudette R +1.01 +0.75 +0.07 +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 9:14
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.96 +0.55 +0.01 +0.20 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:57
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D +0.88 +0.70 +0.04 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:47
92 Igor Chernyshov L +0.54 +0.70 +0.05 -0.09 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 16:00
63 Zack Ostapchuk C +0.45 0.00 +0.10 +0.26 0.00 +0.06 +0.03 — 11:06
21 Alexander Wennberg C +0.35 0.00 +0.14 +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 18:54
23 Barclay Goodrow C +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:58
72 William Eklund L +0.15 0.00 +0.05 +0.05 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 17:02
51 Collin Graf R +0.06 0.00 +0.23 -0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 13:58
6 Sam Dickinson D +0.06 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:15
3 John Klingberg D 0.00 0.00 +0.19 -0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:07
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.15 +0.55 +0.01 -0.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:20
71 Macklin Celebrini C -0.36 0.00 +0.17 -0.44 0.00 -0.04 -0.06 — 21:05
77 Michael Misa C -0.59 0.00 +0.02 -0.57 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 15:03
9 Dmitry Orlov D -0.67 0.00 +0.06 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:09
44 Kiefer Sherwood L -0.71 0.00 +0.01 -0.70 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:36
84 Pavol Regenda L -0.90 0.00 +0.02 -0.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:44
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G -3.68 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.68 60:00

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
9 Filip Forsberg L +3.06 +2.15 +0.28 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 15:08
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +2.67 +1.80 +0.02 +0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:44
76 Brady Skjei D +2.45 +1.30 +0.03 +1.10 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:52
59 Roman Josi D +1.92 +0.75 +0.23 +0.80 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 23:28
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +1.82 +1.40 +0.02 +0.50 -0.15 +0.03 +0.02 — 16:31
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.52 +0.75 +0.23 +0.50 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 13:17
71 Matthew Wood R +1.12 +0.75 +0.05 +0.26 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 15:43
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.94 +0.75 +0.22 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 14:03
40 Fedor Svechkov C +0.47 +0.70 0.00 -0.02 -0.15 -0.06 0.00 — 11:59
48 Nick Perbix D +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:03
85 Ryan Ufko D +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:51
17 Tyson Jost C +0.13 0.00 +0.14 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:51
68 Zachary L'Heureux L +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.15 -0.15 -0.01 +0.08 — 15:51
41 Nicolas Hague D -0.01 0.00 +0.05 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 23:37
25 Joakim Kemell R -0.10 0.00 +0.18 -0.27 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:19
49 Reid Schaefer L -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 11:33
56 Erik Haula L -0.20 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 -0.15 -0.02 +0.01 — 15:47
74 Juuse Saros G -0.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.39 60:00
83 Adam Wilsby D -0.46 0.00 +0.02 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 19:11

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.