Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 4–3 Final/SO Ottawa SenatorsOTT

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Final/SO	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	SO	T	SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT	1	1	1	0	2	4	40
Ottawa SenatorsOTT	1	1	1	0	1	3	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
OTT	-9.7
PIT	+7.4
DET	+2.5
BOS	+1.1
NYI	-0.9

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 26, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:28	OTT	Drake Batherson (28)PP Brady Tkachuk (30), Tim Stützle (42) · wrist xG 0.09	0–1 ▶
13:46	PIT	Rickard Rakell (16) Erik Karlsson (44) · snap xG 0.08	1–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:50	OTT	Nick Cousins (9) Tyler Kleven (14), Linus Ullmark (1) · backhand xG 0.12	1–2 ▶
3:45	PIT	Erik Karlsson (12) Rickard Rakell (22), Ben Kindel (16) · wrist xG 0.07	2–2 ▶
3rd Period
1:43	PIT	Rickard Rakell (17)PP Erik Karlsson (45), Bryan Rust (33) · slap xG 0.15	3–2 ▶
3:58	OTT	Drake Batherson (29) Tim Stützle (43), Jordan Spence (21) · wrist xG 0.43	3–3 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
	OTT	Drake Batherson vs Stuart Skinner	Goal
	PIT	Rickard Rakell vs Linus Ullmark	Saved
	OTT	Tim Stützle vs Stuart Skinner	Saved
	PIT	Egor Chinakhov vs Linus Ullmark	Goal
	OTT	Shane Pinto vs Stuart Skinner	Saved
	PIT	Ben Kindel vs Linus Ullmark	Goal

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 60%Deserve to win40% OTT

PIT		OTT
4.52	Expected goals	3.81
3	Goals (no shootout)	3
2.89	Expected goals, 5 on 5	2.21
80	Shot attempts	63
67	Unblocked attempts	48
40	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
8:55	PIT	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · PIT takes the lead, 63–37% OTT had led since 4:40 of the 1st, by as much as 67%
10:40	PIT	No shift	No shift · Crosby, 34:43 on the bench No shift after 0:38 of the 2nd; 9 shifts (6:39) before that
11:50	PIT	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced OTT 1.29–0.03 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:00 to 13:00 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
17:50	OTT	No shift	No shift · Eller, 12:10 on the bench No shift after 7:50 of the 3rd; 14 shifts (8:00) before that

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ OTT shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
59	Egor Chinakhov	0	0	0	0	7	0.68	0	4	21:24
67	Rickard Rakell	2	1	3	+1	10	0.61	1	1	20:52
17	Bryan Rust	0	1	1	+1	6	0.34	0	3	20:34
39	Anthony Mantha	0	0	0	0	4	0.28	1	0	19:44
19	Connor Dewar	0	0	0	0	6	0.54	0	0	18:12
18	Tommy Novak	0	0	0	-1	8	0.68	1	1	17:25
81	Ben Kindel	0	1	1	0	3	0.23	1	0	15:43
52	Noel Acciari	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	15:35
25	Elmer Soderblom	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	2	0	12:25
16	Justin Brazeau	0	0	0	-1	3	0.19	2	0	10:36
41	Ville Koivunen	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	10:18
87	Sidney Crosby	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	0	06:39
Defense
65	Erik Karlsson	1	2	3	+1	13	0.54	0	1	26:08
49	Samuel Girard	0	0	0	-1	4	0.01	0	0	22:39
58	Kris Letang	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	3	2	21:11
29	Parker Wotherspoon	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	2	21:02
75	Connor Clifton	0	0	0	0	7	0.07	4	1	16:12
6	Ryan Shea	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	15:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Stuart Skinner	29	3	26	.897	3.81	+0.81

Ottawa Senators

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
18	Tim Stützle	0	2	2	+1	6	0.40	2	0	23:21
19	Drake Batherson	2	0	2	+1	8	1.07	3	0	19:41
8	Brady Tkachuk	0	1	1	0	7	0.57	6	0	19:01
24	Dylan Cozens	0	0	0	0	6	0.42	1	0	18:24
12	Shane Pinto	0	0	0	-1	5	0.20	0	0	17:21
28	Claude Giroux	0	0	0	+1	6	0.21	1	2	16:08
71	Ridly Greig	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	2	15:37
22	Michael Amadio	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	15:29
21	Nick Cousins	1	0	1	0	2	0.26	4	1	12:32
20	Fabian Zetterlund	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	4	1	11:55
37	Warren Foegele	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	0	11:23
20	Lars Eller	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	08:00
Defense
10	Jordan Spence	0	1	1	0	4	0.02	3	0	27:48
43	Tyler Kleven	0	1	1	+1	3	0.01	1	0	27:00
2	Artem Zub	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	0	0	22:22
33	Nikolas Matinpalo	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	3	2	18:00
26	Carter Yakemchuk	0	0	0	0	6	0.29	0	1	17:42
56	Jorian Donovan	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	09:22

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Linus Ullmark	40	3	37	.925	4.52	+1.52

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
67 Rickard Rakell R	+2.84	+2.20	+0.40	+0.24	0.00	-0.05	+0.05	—	20:52
65 Erik Karlsson D	+2.66	+2.15	+0.35	+0.25	-0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	26:08
81 Ben Kindel C	+1.15	+0.55	+0.15	+0.50	0.00	-0.01	-0.04	—	15:41
17 Bryan Rust R	+0.93	+0.55	+0.22	+0.02	0.00	-0.01	+0.15	—	20:32
74 Stuart Skinner G	+0.81	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.81	65:00
59 Egor Chinakhov R	+0.80	0.00	+0.44	+0.17	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	21:24
5 Ryan Shea D	+0.77	0.00	+0.04	+0.75	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:22
19 Connor Dewar C	+0.67	0.00	+0.35	+0.38	0.00	-0.02	-0.04	—	18:14
75 Connor Clifton D	+0.62	0.00	+0.05	+0.55	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	16:12
25 Elmer Soderblom L	+0.43	0.00	+0.06	+0.37	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:25
87 Sidney Crosby C	+0.40	0.00	+0.01	+0.41	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	6:39
39 Anthony Mantha R	+0.39	0.00	+0.18	+0.19	0.00	-0.01	+0.02	—	19:44
28 Parker Wotherspoon D	+0.39	0.00	0.00	+0.16	+0.15	0.00	+0.08	—	21:02
55 Noel Acciari C	+0.38	0.00	+0.08	+0.33	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	15:37
16 Justin Brazeau R	+0.30	0.00	+0.12	+0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	10:36
58 Kris Letang D	+0.05	0.00	+0.03	-0.06	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	21:11
41 Ville Koivunen R	-0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:18
18 Tommy Novak C	-0.14	0.00	+0.45	-0.56	0.00	-0.08	+0.05	—	17:25
49 Samuel Girard D	-0.16	0.00	+0.01	-0.17	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	22:39

Ottawa Senators

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
19 Drake Batherson R	+2.44	+1.50	+0.70	+0.28	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	19:41
35 Linus Ullmark G	+2.07	+0.55	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.52	65:00
18 Tim Stützle C	+1.44	+1.25	+0.26	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	23:21
21 Nick Cousins C	+1.27	+0.75	+0.17	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	12:32
43 Tyler Kleven D	+1.26	+0.70	+0.01	+0.44	+0.15	0.00	-0.04	—	27:00
7 Brady Tkachuk L	+1.04	+0.70	+0.37	-0.04	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	19:01
10 Jordan Spence D	+0.86	+0.55	+0.01	+0.29	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	27:48
28 Claude Giroux R	+0.72	0.00	+0.14	+0.38	0.00	+0.09	+0.12	—	16:08
24 Dylan Cozens C	+0.45	0.00	+0.27	+0.29	-0.15	+0.06	-0.02	—	18:24
71 Ridly Greig C	+0.44	0.00	+0.07	+0.28	0.00	+0.01	+0.08	—	15:37
58 Carter Yakemchuk D	+0.15	0.00	+0.19	-0.05	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	17:42
12 Shane Pinto C	-0.25	0.00	+0.13	-0.42	0.00	+0.07	-0.04	—	17:21
33 Nikolas Matinpalo D	-0.40	0.00	+0.01	-0.51	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	18:00
22 Michael Amadio R	-0.47	0.00	0.00	-0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	15:29
20 Fabian Zetterlund L	-0.70	0.00	+0.07	-0.78	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	11:55
37 Warren Foegele L	-0.79	0.00	+0.08	-0.88	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	11:23
56 Jorian Donovan D	-0.92	0.00	0.00	-0.95	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	9:22
89 Lars Eller C	-0.92	0.00	0.00	-0.93	0.00	-0.02	+0.03	—	8:00
2 Artem Zub D	-1.04	0.00	+0.01	-0.88	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	22:22

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.