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Edmonton OilersEDM 4–3 Final/OT Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 1201 4 29
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 0210 3 29
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK -7.2
EDM +4.5
SEA +0.8
LAK +0.8
NSH +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 26, 2026 9:23 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:52 EDM Matt Savoie (13) Connor McDavid (79), Evan Bouchard (64) · wrist xG 0.11 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
4:09 VGK Mark Stone (22) Jack Eichel (51), Ivan Barbashev (31) · backhand xG 0.21 1–1 ▶
7:27 EDM Connor McDavid (41) Vasily Podkolzin (16), Mattias Ekholm (33) · wrist xG 0.12 2–1 ▶
14:51 VGK Mark Stone (23) Unassisted · backhand xG 0.17 2–2 ▶
16:42 EDM Zach Hyman (30) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
3rd Period
6:21 VGK Ivan Barbashev (21) Pavel Dorofeyev (25), Shea Theodore (26) · wrist xG 0.07 3–3 ▶
Overtime
3:10 EDM Evan Bouchard (20) Connor McDavid (80) · snap xG 0.10 4–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 51%Deserve to win49% VGK
EDMVGK
2.59Expected goals2.51
4Goals (no shootout)3
1.75Expected goals, 5 on 51.66
62Shot attempts51
42Unblocked attempts37
29Shots on goal29

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Mark Stone: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:57) Brett Howden: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:02) Adam Henrique: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:04) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 5:05) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:47) Tomas Hertl: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:48) Jason Dickinson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:31) Brayden McNabb: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 8:26) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:45) Jake Walman: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 11:43) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:45) Evan Bouchard: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:33) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:39) Zach Hyman: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 13:39) Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 14:04) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:43) Mark Stone: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 15:56) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:33) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:47) Adam Henrique: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:58) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:15) Jason Dickinson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:49) Zach Hyman: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 0:40) Jack Eichel: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:49) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:04) Adam Henrique: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:06) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:30) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:35) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:05) Jack Eichel: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:06) Connor Murphy: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:09) Ty Emberson: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 7:41) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:51) Mark Stone: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:04) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:45) Cole Smith: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:46) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:48) Brayden McNabb: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:18) Connor Murphy: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:31) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 87 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 13:01) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 153 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:53) Jason Dickinson: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:06) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:14) Matt Savoie: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 17:43) Shea Theodore: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:23) Matt Savoie: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:48) Mitch Marner: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:56) Connor McDavid: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:39) Nic Dowd: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:37) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:27) Matt Savoie: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:04) Pavel Dorofeyev: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 6:20) Zach Hyman: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:48) Brett Howden: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:39) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:31) Jake Walman: wrist, 173 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:44) Jake Walman: slap, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:52) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 10:28) Evan Bouchard: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:39) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 10:54) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:11) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:51) Jake Walman: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:51) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 16:50) Jack Eichel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:54) Jack Eichel: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 1:09) Jack Eichel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 1:35) Jack Eichel: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:03) Mitch Marner: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 2:11) Jack Eichel: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 2:25) Tomas Hertl: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (OT 2:47) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 3:05) Matt Savoie: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:52) Mark Stone: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 4:09) Connor McDavid: GOAL, wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:27) Mark Stone: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 14:51) Zach Hyman: GOAL, wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 16:42) Ivan Barbashev: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:21) Evan Bouchard: GOAL, snap, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (OT 3:10)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 123 +1 30.15 0022:12
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 0 40.17 1019:48
18 Zach Hyman 101 +1 40.56 2019:10
22 Matt Savoie 101 +1 50.23 0018:40
92 Vasily Podkolzin 011 -2 10.10 2118:33
16 Jason Dickinson 000 0 50.26 0015:48
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 0 20.03 2115:35
96 Jack Roslovic 000 0 30.05 1014:34
81 Josh Samanski 000 +1 00.00 1113:28
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 30.22 0010:20
46 Max Jones 000 0 10.00 1007:41
15 Roby Jarventie 000 0 00.00 0006:39
Defense
25 Darnell Nurse 000 0 20.09 2525:19
2 Evan Bouchard 112 +2 120.34 0023:31
5 Connor Murphy 000 -1 30.04 1323:25
14 Mattias Ekholm 011 -1 50.18 0118:50
96 Jake Walman 000 +1 70.15 0217:48
49 Ty Emberson 000 0 20.00 2014:14
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Ingram 29326 .897 2.51 -0.49

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 011 +1 70.30 0226:24
61 Mark Stone 202 +1 50.63 0123:40
93 Mitch Marner 000 0 60.21 0122:15
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 011 0 40.19 0019:10
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -1 50.45 3018:44
49 Ivan Barbashev 112 +2 30.23 5117:16
19 Reilly Smith 000 -1 00.00 1013:42
15 Colton Sissons 000 -1 00.00 0113:31
21 Brett Howden 000 -3 30.08 0212:07
22 Cole Smith 000 0 10.04 1009:33
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 -1 00.00 4008:47
26 Nic Dowd 000 +1 20.02 1108:14
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 0 20.02 0125:08
27 Shea Theodore 011 0 30.03 0223:05
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -1 40.16 1222:57
3 Brayden McNabb 000 +1 50.15 2219:48
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 10.00 3215:43
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 -1 00.00 0108:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 29425 .862 2.59 -1.41

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
97 Connor McDavid C +2.57 +2.15 +0.10 +0.34 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 — 22:12
2 Evan Bouchard D +2.02 +1.30 +0.22 +0.67 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 23:31
18 Zach Hyman L +1.40 +0.75 +0.36 +0.44 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:10
22 Matt Savoie C +1.09 +0.75 +0.15 +0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:40
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.69 +0.55 +0.11 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:50
96 Jake Walman D +0.54 0.00 +0.10 +0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:48
19 Adam Henrique C +0.34 0.00 +0.14 +0.17 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 10:20
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +0.31 +0.70 +0.07 -0.52 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 18:33
25 Darnell Nurse D +0.20 0.00 +0.06 -0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 25:20
81 Josh Samanski C +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 -0.02 +0.01 — 13:28
15 Roby Jarventie L +0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 6:39
46 Max Jones L +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:41
42 Kasperi Kapanen R +0.06 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:35
16 Jason Dickinson C 0.00 0.00 +0.17 -0.18 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 15:48
28 Jack Roslovic C -0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.24 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:34
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -0.11 0.00 +0.11 -0.19 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 19:48
49 Ty Emberson D -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:14
5 Connor Murphy D -0.32 0.00 +0.03 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 23:24
39 Connor Ingram G -0.49 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.49 63:10

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
61 Mark Stone R +2.54 +1.50 +0.41 +0.42 +0.15 -0.01 +0.07 — 23:40
49 Ivan Barbashev L +2.38 +1.30 +0.15 +0.89 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 17:16
9 Jack Eichel C +1.23 +0.70 +0.19 +0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 26:24
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +1.03 +0.70 +0.12 +0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:10
27 Shea Theodore D +0.73 +0.55 +0.02 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 23:05
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.72 0.00 +0.10 +0.53 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:46
26 Nic Dowd C +0.49 0.00 +0.01 +0.29 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 8:14
93 Mitch Marner R +0.37 0.00 +0.13 +0.04 +0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 22:17
48 Tomas Hertl C +0.28 0.00 +0.30 -0.06 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 18:44
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.16 0.00 +0.10 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 22:57
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.06 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 25:08
22 Cole Smith R -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:33
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:47
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -0.40 0.00 0.00 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:43
21 Brett Howden C -0.43 0.00 +0.05 -0.57 0.00 -0.03 +0.12 — 12:07
6 Kaedan Korczak D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 8:21
10 Colton Sissons C -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.61 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 13:31
19 Reilly Smith R -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:42
33 Adin Hill G -1.41 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.41 62:20

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.