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Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1–5 Final St. Louis BluesSTL

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 001 1 13
St. Louis BluesSTL 023 5 38
Playoff odds, % Change
STL +2.9
TOR +0.0
NSH -1.0
UTA -0.6
LAK -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 28, 2026 6:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
5:21 STL Jimmy Snuggerud (17) Cam Fowler (24), Dylan Holloway (19) · snap xG 0.26 0–1 ▶
10:35 STL Justin Holl (1) Jordan Kyrou (21), Pavel Buchnevich (27) · wrist xG 0.17 0–2 ▶
3rd Period
5:07 TOR Jake McCabe (5) Dakota Joshua (7), Jacob Quillan (1) · wrist xG 0.02 1–2 ▶
6:46 STL Pius Suter (12)SH Robert Thomas (31) · snap xG 0.16 1–3 ▶
9:10 STL Dylan Holloway (17) Jordan Kyrou (22), Jake Neighbours (13) · snap xG 0.22 1–4 ▶
18:24 STL Philip Broberg (5)PP Jake Neighbours (14), Robert Thomas (32) · wrist xG 0.09 1–5 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 18%Deserve to win82% STL
TORSTL
1.60Expected goals3.61
1Goals (no shootout)5
1.31Expected goals, 5 on 53.17
35Shot attempts60
27Unblocked attempts47
13Shots on goal38

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ STL shoots
John Tavares: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 0:30) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 2:15) Robert Thomas: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:38) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:19) Jake Neighbours: poke, 5 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:20) Justin Holl: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:47) Theo Lindstein: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:22) Otto Stenberg: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 5:37) Jonatan Berggren: tip-in, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:48) Pius Suter: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 8:29) Jacob Quillan: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:54) Colton Parayko: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:30) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:05) Jake McCabe: wrist, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:05) William Nylander: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:22) Simon Benoit: deflected, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 12:40) Dakota Joshua: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 15:11) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 16:40) Michael Pezzetta: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 17:18) Matias Maccelli: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P1 18:13) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:18) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:44) Jimmy Snuggerud: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:09) Jake Neighbours: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 19:45) John Tavares: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:19) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 0:32) Jordan Kyrou: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:12) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:09) Dalibor Dvorsky: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:28) John Tavares: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 4:35) Colton Parayko: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 4:51) Otto Stenberg: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 6:26) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:33) Brandon Carlo: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:28) Jimmy Snuggerud: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:33) Dalibor Dvorsky: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:20) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 12:38) Dakota Joshua: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 12:48) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:31) Jake McCabe: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:42) Max Domi: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:19) Dakota Joshua: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 15:22) Pavel Buchnevich: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 17:31) Jake McCabe: slap, 180 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:35) Cam Fowler: wrist, 121 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 18:53) Colton Parayko: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:11) Jonatan Berggren: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:16) Robert Thomas: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:41) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 1:30) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:14) Cam Fowler: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 2:33) Theo Lindstein: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:12) Morgan Rielly: wrist, 82 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:38) Pavel Buchnevich: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 4:25) Matias Maccelli: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:46) Jake McCabe: wrist, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:17) Theo Lindstein: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 9:45) Alexey Toropchenko: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 11:31) Logan Mailloux: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:51) Theo Lindstein: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:37) Dylan Holloway: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 13:30) Dalibor Dvorsky: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:38) Calle Jarnkrok: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:57) Steven Lorentz: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 15:59) Steven Lorentz: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:21) Logan Mailloux: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:13) Nick Robertson: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:41) Alexey Toropchenko: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:18) Jimmy Snuggerud: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 5:21) Justin Holl: GOAL, wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:35) Jake McCabe: GOAL, wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:07) Pius Suter: GOAL, snap, 27 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 6:46) Dylan Holloway: GOAL, snap, 24 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 9:10) Philip Broberg: GOAL, wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 18:24)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 William Nylander 000 -1 10.02 1020:03
53 Easton Cowan 000 -2 00.00 4018:44
14 Nick Robertson 000 -1 20.03 0217:43
11 Max Domi 000 -1 10.02 0016:23
26 Jacob Quillan 011 -1 30.01 0116:07
89 Matthew Knies 000 -3 00.00 0015:26
81 Dakota Joshua 011 0 30.45 3015:03
91 John Tavares 000 -1 40.31 0014:48
63 Matias Maccelli 000 0 20.30 1014:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok 000 +1 20.12 1013:22
18 Steven Lorentz 000 0 30.12 2011:30
61 Michael Pezzetta 000 -1 10.10 2008:49
Defense
22 Jake McCabe 101 +1 50.04 1121:33
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson 000 0 30.00 1020:00
25 Brandon Carlo 000 -2 20.01 1119:26
44 Morgan Rielly 000 -2 20.00 1018:46
28 Troy Stecher 000 -1 00.00 1417:43
44 Simon Benoit 000 -1 10.07 4117:35
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joseph Woll 38533 .868 3.61 -1.39

St. Louis Blues

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Robert Thomas 022 +1 20.21 0019:57
81 Dylan Holloway 112 +2 60.52 0018:17
21 Jimmy Snuggerud 101 +1 60.37 1017:36
89 Pavel Buchnevich 011 +2 30.23 0115:38
63 Jake Neighbours 022 +2 20.20 1014:38
29 Jonatan Berggren 000 -1 40.06 0014:07
15 Dalibor Dvorsky 000 -1 50.18 0013:42
25 Jordan Kyrou 022 +2 20.04 0013:37
28 Otto Stenberg 000 -1 20.28 1013:34
22 Pius Suter 101 +1 20.30 0013:09
13 Alexey Toropchenko 000 0 30.37 1011:37
37 Jack Finley 000 0 00.00 4110:38
Defense
55 Colton Parayko 000 +1 40.21 1022:37
6 Philip Broberg 101 +1 10.09 0021:51
17 Cam Fowler 011 +1 40.04 0020:11
23 Logan Mailloux 000 +1 50.12 2119:59
4 Theo Lindstein 000 +1 70.19 1316:31
4 Justin Holl 101 +1 20.19 1016:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jordan Binnington 13112 .923 1.60 +0.60

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Dakota Joshua C +0.83 +0.70 +0.29 -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:03
22 Jake McCabe D +0.56 +0.75 +0.02 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 21:33
18 Steven Lorentz C +0.16 0.00 +0.08 +0.10 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:30
63 Matias Maccelli L -0.03 0.00 +0.19 -0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 14:09
19 Calle Jarnkrok C -0.04 0.00 +0.08 -0.08 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 13:22
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 20:00
26 Jacob Quillan C -0.27 +0.55 +0.01 -1.19 +0.30 +0.06 +0.01 — 16:07
88 William Nylander R -0.32 0.00 +0.01 -0.27 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 20:03
91 John Tavares C -0.48 0.00 +0.20 -0.67 0.00 -0.03 +0.02 — 14:48
61 Michael Pezzetta L -0.51 0.00 +0.06 -0.57 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 8:49
28 Troy Stecher D -0.66 0.00 0.00 -0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.18 — 17:43
89 Nick Robertson L -0.89 0.00 +0.02 -1.02 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:43
11 Max Domi C -0.91 0.00 +0.01 -0.84 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 — 16:23
25 Brandon Carlo D -1.10 0.00 +0.01 -1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:26
53 Easton Cowan R -1.11 0.00 0.00 -1.03 0.00 0.00 -0.08 — 18:44
2 Simon Benoit D -1.13 0.00 +0.04 -1.21 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:35
44 Morgan Rielly D -1.20 0.00 0.00 -1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:46
23 Matthew Knies L -1.29 0.00 0.00 -1.31 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:26
60 Joseph Woll G -1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.39 59:54

St. Louis Blues

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Dylan Holloway L +2.73 +1.30 +0.34 +1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:17
25 Jordan Kyrou R +2.43 +1.40 +0.02 +1.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:37
63 Jake Neighbours L +2.37 +1.25 +0.13 +1.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 14:38
89 Pavel Buchnevich L +1.97 +0.55 +0.15 +1.22 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:38
17 Cam Fowler D +1.86 +0.70 +0.02 +1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:11
18 Robert Thomas C +1.81 +1.25 +0.14 +0.42 0.00 +0.02 -0.02 — 19:57
55 Colton Parayko D +1.69 0.00 +0.14 +1.23 +0.30 0.00 +0.02 — 22:37
21 Jimmy Snuggerud R +1.68 +0.75 +0.24 +0.75 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:36
4 Justin Holl D +1.61 +0.75 +0.12 +0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:21
6 Philip Broberg D +1.20 +0.75 +0.06 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 21:51
41 Theo Lindstein D +0.97 0.00 +0.12 +0.86 -0.15 0.00 +0.13 — 16:31
22 Pius Suter C +0.93 +0.75 +0.20 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:09
28 Otto Stenberg C +0.69 0.00 +0.18 +0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:34
50 Jordan Binnington G +0.60 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.60 60:00
54 Dalibor Dvorsky R +0.60 0.00 +0.12 +0.47 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:42
29 Jonatan Berggren R +0.53 0.00 +0.04 +0.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:07
23 Logan Mailloux D +0.47 0.00 +0.08 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:59
13 Alexey Toropchenko R +0.33 0.00 +0.24 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:37
37 Jack Finley C -0.24 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.30 +0.02 +0.05 — 10:38

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.