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Winnipeg JetsWPG 4–2 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 112 4 21
Colorado AvalancheCOL 110 2 23
Playoff odds, % Change
WPG +3.0
COL +0.0
NSH -0.8
VGK -0.8
LAK -0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 28, 2026 6:50 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:51 WPG Gabriel Vilardi (28) Josh Morrissey (38), Adam Lowry (15) · tip-in xG 0.05 1–0 ▶
8:59 COL Brock Nelson (33)PP Nazem Kadri (34), Cale Makar (52) · tip-in xG 0.09 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
2:14 WPG Cole Koepke (7) Jonathan Toews (16), Elias Salomonsson (4) · wrist xG 0.15 2–1 ▶
18:05 COL Parker Kelly (17) Josh Manson (24), Valeri Nichushkin (27) · tip-in xG 0.08 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
14:49 WPG Cole Perfetti (11) Jacob Bryson (5), Gabriel Vilardi (34) · tip-in xG 0.05 3–2 ▶
17:51 WPG Kyle Connor (33)EN Mark Scheifele (55), Dylan Samberg (13) · wrist xG 0.74 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 42%Deserve to win58% COL
WPGCOL
2.22Expected goals1.74
4Goals (no shootout)2
1.10Expected goals, 5 on 51.54
48Shot attempts56
32Unblocked attempts34
21Shots on goal23

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:41 COL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Blackwood, down 3–2
With 2:19 left; WPG scored at 17:51 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Cale Makar: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 0:40) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 0:46) Mark Scheifele: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 0:59) Brett Kulak: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:00) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:41) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:41) Brock Nelson: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:58) Brock Nelson: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:08) Devon Toews: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 5:29) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 6:18) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:19) Gabriel Landeskog: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 6:47) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:11) Neal Pionk: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:03) Parker Kelly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 9:17) Logan O'Connor: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:13) Parker Kelly: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:25) Danil Zhilkin: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:41) Josh Morrissey: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:11) Nathan MacKinnon: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:39) Adam Lowry: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:05) Neal Pionk: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:28) Devon Toews: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:03) Mark Scheifele: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:12) Cole Koepke: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:46) Alex Iafallo: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:13) Josh Morrissey: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:26) Alex Iafallo: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:27) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:47) Parker Kelly: snap, 76 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:23) Parker Kelly: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:40) Kyle Connor: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:22) Brent Burns: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:01) Sam Malinski: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:33) Sam Malinski: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:49) Josh Manson: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:37) Kyle Connor: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 8:19) Gabriel Vilardi: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:15) Neal Pionk: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:52) Kyle Connor: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:17) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:53) Cale Makar: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:39) Sam Malinski: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:12) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:09) Brent Burns: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:30) Martin Necas: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:45) Brett Kulak: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:28) Gabriel Vilardi: backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:58) Sam Malinski: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:00) Martin Necas: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 6:12) Nathan MacKinnon: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 6:24) Cale Makar: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:41) Neal Pionk: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 8:57) Kyle Connor: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:13) Neal Pionk: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:42) Logan O'Connor: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:54) Josh Morrissey: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:19) Brad Lambert: snap, 74 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:49) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:59) Cole Koepke: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 19:28) Gabriel Vilardi: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:51) Brock Nelson: GOAL, tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:59) Cole Koepke: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:14) Parker Kelly: GOAL, tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 18:05) Cole Perfetti: GOAL, tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:49) Kyle Connor: GOAL, wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.74 (P3 17:51)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
55 Mark Scheifele 011 0 50.15 0323:51
81 Kyle Connor 101 +1 60.98 1022:23
13 Gabriel Vilardi 112 +2 50.16 0020:05
91 Cole Perfetti 101 +2 40.05 1119:15
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 20.11 6218:25
17 Adam Lowry 011 +2 20.03 4016:55
19 Jonathan Toews 011 +2 30.13 0114:01
45 Cole Koepke 101 +1 40.25 6112:29
93 Brad Lambert 000 +1 10.00 0010:11
25 Parker Ford 000 -1 00.00 1109:00
53 Danil Zhilkin 000 0 10.01 0005:39
27 Isak Rosen 000 -1 00.00 0105:32
Defense
4 Neal Pionk 000 +1 60.17 6225:04
54 Dylan Samberg 011 +2 20.02 2424:19
44 Josh Morrissey 011 +1 30.15 2022:25
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 +2 10.00 0121:54
57 Elias Salomonsson 011 0 20.00 3013:51
78 Jacob Bryson 011 0 10.00 0109:26
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 23221 .913 1.74 -0.26

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 000 -1 60.19 2023:50
29 Nathan MacKinnon 000 -2 60.26 1122:36
11 Brock Nelson 101 -2 40.24 0220:19
43 Valeri Nichushkin 011 0 10.00 2016:01
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 -1 10.00 0015:03
92 Gabriel Landeskog 000 -3 40.41 1214:47
91 Nazem Kadri 011 -1 00.00 1214:28
25 Logan O'Connor 000 -1 20.05 4012:09
17 Parker Kelly 101 +1 50.20 0010:34
18 Jack Drury 000 0 00.00 0010:07
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 00.00 5009:35
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 00.00 0007:35
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 -3 50.09 0126:37
7 Devon Toews 000 -1 40.10 1421:10
27 Brett Kulak 000 -1 20.02 0120:23
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 80.05 0219:26
84 Brent Burns 000 0 50.12 0115:00
42 Josh Manson 011 0 30.01 4014:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 20317 .850 1.39 -1.61

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
19 Jonathan Toews C +1.68 +0.70 +0.09 +0.67 +0.15 +0.04 +0.03 — 14:01
13 Gabriel Vilardi C +1.65 +1.30 +0.10 +0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 20:05
45 Cole Koepke L +1.41 +0.75 +0.16 +0.47 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:29
81 Kyle Connor L +1.15 +0.75 +0.64 -0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:23
44 Josh Morrissey D +1.12 +0.70 +0.10 +0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:25
91 Cole Perfetti C +1.00 +0.75 +0.03 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 19:15
17 Adam Lowry C +0.62 +0.55 +0.02 +0.02 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 16:55
78 Jacob Bryson D +0.45 +0.70 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:26
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 21:54
54 Dylan Samberg D +0.35 +0.55 +0.01 -0.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 24:19
55 Mark Scheifele C +0.23 +0.70 +0.10 -0.51 -0.15 -0.04 +0.13 — 23:51
57 Elias Salomonsson D +0.20 +0.55 0.00 -0.29 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 13:51
93 Brad Lambert C +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.20 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 10:11
9 Alex Iafallo L +0.01 0.00 +0.07 -0.18 0.00 -0.01 +0.12 — 18:25
4 Neal Pionk D -0.05 0.00 +0.11 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:04
37 Connor Hellebuyck G -0.26 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.26 60:00
53 Danil Zhilkin C -0.36 0.00 +0.01 -0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:39
25 Parker Ford C -0.37 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 9:00
27 Isak Rosen R -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 5:32

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
42 Josh Manson D +1.13 +0.70 +0.01 +0.57 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 14:31
17 Parker Kelly C +1.12 +0.75 +0.13 +0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:34
11 Brock Nelson C +0.99 +0.75 +0.15 -0.05 0.00 +0.04 +0.10 — 20:19
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.83 +0.55 0.00 +0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:01
91 Nazem Kadri C +0.82 +0.70 0.00 +0.06 0.00 -0.02 +0.08 — 14:28
88 Martin Necas C +0.63 0.00 +0.12 +0.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:50
70 Sam Malinski D +0.60 0.00 +0.03 +0.42 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 19:26
84 Brent Burns D +0.59 0.00 +0.08 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 15:00
7 Devon Toews D +0.38 0.00 +0.06 +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:10
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.36 0.00 +0.17 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 22:36
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:03
8 Cale Makar D +0.05 +0.55 +0.06 -0.77 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 26:37
18 Jack Drury C +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:07
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 7:35
92 Gabriel Landeskog L -0.02 0.00 +0.27 -0.32 0.00 -0.03 +0.06 — 14:47
25 Logan O'Connor R -0.03 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:09
20 Ross Colton C -0.31 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 9:35
27 Brett Kulak D -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:23
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G -1.61 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.61 57:49

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.