Tampa Bay LightningTBL @ 7:00 PM EST Buffalo SabresBUF

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Win probability, % Win In reg OT/SO Exp pts
TBL 52.0 39.3 12.7 1.16
BUF 48.0 36.2 11.8 1.09

From the ratings the simulation plays every game with: this and last season's results, with home ice. 24% of games go past regulation.

Playoff odds, % Now Day Final Cup
TBL 87.3 +0.1 16.6 9.1
BUF 57.6 +0.4 5.8 2.7

No impact calculated for this game. Impacts are calculated for games in the next 7 days.

The teams

TBL BUF
6–2–0 Record 4–3–2
12 (.750) Points 10 (.556)
2nd in the Atlantic Place 2nd wild card
6–2–0 Last 10 4–3–2
5–0–0 At home 3–2–0
1–2–0 On the road 1–1–2
W2 Streak OTL1
3.12 GF per game 3.00
2.62 GA per game 3.78
60.3 (3rd) Strength 53.9 (12th)
58.1 (3rd) xG share, 5v5 52.5 (12th)
59.1 (3rd) xG share, all 49.8 (15th)
+0.5 Saved above expected -4.7
2 days Rest 2 days

This regular season. Strength and xG share with the league rank in parentheses.

Leading scorers

SkaterGPGAP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Brandon Hagel86511
Nikita Kucherov83710
Jake Guentzel8459
Brayden Point8156
Pontus Holmberg8235
Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson9549
Jack Quinn9549
Owen Power9268
Mattias Samuelsson9257
Noah Ostlund9246

Season series

Nov 11TBL @ BUF · this game
Nov 22BUF @ TBL
Jan 2BUF @ TBL
Apr 5TBL @ BUF