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Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 2–3 Final/SO New York RangersNYR

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final/SO 1st2nd3rdOTSO T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 11000 2 34
New York RangersNYR 01101 3 25
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT -3.8
NYR +0.0
WSH +0.9
NYI +0.7
CBJ +0.6
DET +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 11:39 AM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:08 PIT Anthony Mantha (21)PP Erik Karlsson (32), Bryan Rust (22) · tip-in xG 0.09 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
1:59 PIT Ryan Shea (4) Connor Clifton (3), Blake Lizotte (12) · wrist xG 0.03 2–0 ▶
10:00 NYR Mika Zibanejad (24)PP Vincent Trocheck (26), J.T. Miller (23) · snap xG 0.19 2–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:57 NYR Taylor Raddysh (9) Vladislav Gavrikov (13), Brendan Brisson (1) · tip-in xG 0.11 2–2 ▶
Overtime
No scoring
Shootout
PIT Anthony Mantha vs Igor Shesterkin Missed
NYR Vincent Trocheck vs Stuart Skinner Goal
PIT Egor Chinakhov vs Igor Shesterkin Saved
NYR J.T. Miller vs Stuart Skinner Saved
PIT Tommy Novak vs Igor Shesterkin Missed

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 51%Deserve to win49% NYR
PITNYR
3.65Expected goals3.55
2Goals (no shootout)2
1.83Expected goals, 5 on 52.88
61Shot attempts68
47Unblocked attempts47
34Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
11:40 NYR xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced PIT 1.31–0.08
In xG over 10 minutes, 1:40 to 11:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NYR shoots
Samuel Girard: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:15) Avery Hayes: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 1:17) Rickard Rakell: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 2:00) Noah Laba: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:34) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:41) Rickard Rakell: bat, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:45) Tommy Novak: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:22) Ben Kindel: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:34) Avery Hayes: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:50) Ben Kindel: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 7:31) Alexis Lafrenière: deflected, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 7:40) Connor Clifton: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 8:22) Tommy Novak: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:15) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:22) Parker Wotherspoon: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:33) Bryan Rust: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:23) Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:41) Adam Fox: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:59) Will Cuylle: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:07) Noel Acciari: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:48) Adam Fox: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:37) Tommy Novak: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:07) Anthony Mantha: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 19:57) Bryan Rust: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 0:30) Noel Acciari: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:18) J.T. Miller: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 2:58) Adam Fox: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:00) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:02) Ben Kindel: backhand, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 3:18) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:01) Noah Laba: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:12) Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:49) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:55) Adam Fox: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:38) Mika Zibanejad: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 7:45) Tommy Novak: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:02) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 8:37) Tommy Novak: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:00) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:52) Adam Fox: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:05) Conor Sheary: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:48) Ben Kindel: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:00) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 14:18) Mika Zibanejad: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:31) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:32) Vladislav Gavrikov: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:40) Gabe Perreault: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:42) Tommy Novak: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 15:02) Tommy Novak: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:06) Avery Hayes: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:04) Scott Morrow: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:34) Kris Letang: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:12) Erik Karlsson: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:16) Evgeni Malkin: deflected, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:18) Evgeni Malkin: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 17:54) Parker Wotherspoon: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:10) Mika Zibanejad: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:35) Braden Schneider: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:04) Conor Sheary: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:50) Tye Kartye: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.35 (P3 1:53) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:17) Vladislav Gavrikov: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 2:41) Connor Clifton: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:46) J.T. Miller: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 4:33) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 4:36) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:37) Gabe Perreault: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:37) Evgeni Malkin: backhand, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:52) Tye Kartye: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:13) Conor Sheary: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:18) Noah Laba: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:24) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:05) Will Cuylle: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:37) Will Cuylle: deflected, 10 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 11:40) Noah Laba: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 13:04) Evgeni Malkin: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:03) Connor Dewar: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:58) Will Borgen: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 18:33) Connor Clifton: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 19:43) Ben Kindel: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.19 (OT 0:13) J.T. Miller: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 1:47) J.T. Miller: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (OT 2:13) Will Cuylle: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (OT 2:32) Ben Kindel: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.05 (OT 3:02) Braden Schneider: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.17 (OT 4:01) Alexis Lafrenière: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (OT 4:10) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 4:17) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 4:49) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.16 (OT 4:54) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (OT 4:59) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 2:08) Ryan Shea: GOAL, wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:59) Mika Zibanejad: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 10:00) Taylor Raddysh: GOAL, tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:57)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Evgeni Malkin 000 0 90.69 2020:28
67 Rickard Rakell 000 0 20.25 2120:08
17 Bryan Rust 011 -1 30.15 1019:45
81 Ben Kindel 000 -1 60.49 1117:12
59 Egor Chinakhov 000 0 20.16 2016:41
39 Anthony Mantha 101 -1 30.18 0115:41
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 80.85 1115:22
46 Blake Lizotte 011 +1 20.00 1014:29
19 Connor Dewar 000 +1 30.04 1214:06
52 Noel Acciari 000 +1 30.10 0013:20
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 00.00 0213:01
85 Avery Hayes 000 0 40.27 1211:54
Defense
65 Erik Karlsson 011 0 50.20 1124:14
58 Kris Letang 000 -1 20.01 0223:51
49 Samuel Girard 000 0 10.04 0120:57
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 -1 20.06 0018:34
6 Ryan Shea 101 +1 10.03 0016:33
75 Connor Clifton 011 +1 50.14 2516:16
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Stuart Skinner 25223 .920 3.55 +1.55

New York Rangers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mika Zibanejad 101 0 70.47 0022:36
10 J.T. Miller 011 0 40.34 4020:53
13 Alexis Lafrenière 000 0 40.20 0020:13
50 Will Cuylle 000 0 60.54 4019:17
94 Gabe Perreault 000 0 70.62 0017:59
16 Vincent Trocheck 011 0 00.00 1016:47
43 Conor Sheary 000 0 30.15 0014:36
42 Noah Laba 000 -1 40.29 1113:13
24 Tye Kartye 000 -1 30.37 6012:39
0 Brendan Brisson 011 0 00.00 1110:39
14 Taylor Raddysh 101 +1 10.11 0009:48
10 Sam Carrick 000 +1 00.00 3009:41
Defense
23 Adam Fox 000 +1 70.10 1225:33
44 Vladislav Gavrikov 011 0 70.09 2024:17
4 Braden Schneider 000 0 60.19 1420:28
17 Will Borgen 000 0 40.08 0118:32
29 Matthew Robertson 000 0 20.00 2117:38
60 Scott Morrow 000 -1 30.01 2115:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Igor Shesterkin 34232 .941 3.65 +1.65

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
74 Stuart Skinner G +1.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.55 64:37
65 Erik Karlsson D +1.05 +0.70 +0.13 +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:14
75 Connor Clifton D +1.02 +0.70 +0.09 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 16:16
46 Blake Lizotte C +0.83 +0.55 0.00 +0.50 -0.15 -0.05 -0.02 — 14:29
18 Tommy Novak C +0.82 0.00 +0.56 +0.31 0.00 -0.07 +0.03 — 15:22
71 Evgeni Malkin C +0.65 0.00 +0.45 +0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:28
19 Connor Dewar C +0.61 0.00 +0.03 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 14:06
55 Noel Acciari C +0.57 0.00 +0.07 +0.51 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:20
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.53 0.00 +0.10 +0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 16:41
5 Ryan Shea D +0.48 +0.75 +0.02 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:33
17 Bryan Rust R -0.02 +0.55 +0.10 -0.80 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:45
85 Avery Hayes R -0.13 0.00 +0.17 -0.54 +0.15 -0.01 +0.10 — 11:54
49 Samuel Girard D -0.33 0.00 +0.03 -0.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:57
28 Parker Wotherspoon D -0.46 0.00 +0.04 -0.45 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:34
39 Anthony Mantha R -0.54 +0.75 +0.12 -1.44 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:41
67 Rickard Rakell R -0.65 0.00 +0.16 -0.62 -0.15 -0.10 +0.05 — 20:08
16 Justin Brazeau R -1.03 0.00 0.00 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 13:01
81 Ben Kindel C -1.04 0.00 +0.32 -1.35 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 17:12
58 Kris Letang D -1.24 0.00 0.00 -1.35 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 23:51

New York Rangers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 J.T. Miller C +1.86 +0.55 +0.22 +1.12 0.00 +0.01 -0.04 — 20:53
93 Mika Zibanejad C +1.86 +0.75 +0.31 +0.76 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 22:36
31 Igor Shesterkin G +1.65 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.65 65:00
94 Gabe Perreault R +1.57 0.00 +0.41 +1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:59
44 Vladislav Gavrikov D +1.37 +0.70 +0.06 +0.80 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 24:17
14 Taylor Raddysh R +0.97 +0.75 +0.07 +0.14 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 9:48
29 Matthew Robertson D +0.89 0.00 0.00 +0.84 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:38
23 Adam Fox D +0.88 0.00 +0.07 +0.71 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 25:33
42 Noah Laba C +0.72 0.00 +0.19 +0.46 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 13:13
43 Conor Sheary L +0.63 0.00 +0.10 +0.40 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:36
16 Vincent Trocheck C +0.63 +0.70 0.00 -0.03 -0.15 +0.15 -0.04 — 16:47
91 Brendan Brisson C +0.61 +0.55 0.00 +0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:39
24 Tye Kartye L +0.37 0.00 +0.24 +0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:39
60 Scott Morrow D +0.23 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 15:31
39 Sam Carrick C +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.14 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 9:41
50 Will Cuylle L +0.17 0.00 +0.35 -0.33 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:17
4 Braden Schneider D +0.04 0.00 +0.12 -0.11 -0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 20:28
17 Will Borgen D +0.02 0.00 +0.05 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:32
13 Alexis Lafrenière L -0.44 0.00 +0.13 -0.53 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:13

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.