Washington CapitalsWSH 2–6 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Washington CapitalsWSH 101 2 29
Montréal CanadiensMTL 222 6 25
Playoff odds, % Change
WSH -7.0
MTL +3.4
NYI +1.3
CBJ +0.9

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 28, 2026 6:55 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:30 MTL Cole Caufield (34) Unassisted · snap xG 0.15 0–1 ▶
13:16 WSH Alex Ovechkin (23) Anthony Beauvillier (9), Declan Chisholm (5) · snap xG 0.14 1–1 ▶
14:19 MTL Cole Caufield (35) Nick Suzuki (48), Jayden Struble (9) · backhand xG 0.38 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
12:22 MTL Mike Matheson (6) Zachary Bolduc (14), Alex Newhook (8) · snap xG 0.21 1–3 ▶
16:34 MTL Kirby Dach (8) Nick Suzuki (49) · snap xG 0.06 1–4 ▶
3rd Period
12:12 WSH Alex Ovechkin (24) Dylan Strome (32), Anthony Beauvillier (10) · snap xG 0.20 2–4 ▶
16:44 MTL Nick Suzuki (19)EN Unassisted · backhand xG 0.40 2–5 ▶
18:35 MTL Jake Evans (8)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.51 2–6 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WSH 52%Deserve to win48% MTL
WSHMTL
3.47Expected goals4.24
2Goals (no shootout)6
2.33Expected goals, 5 on 52.15
56Shot attempts54
42Unblocked attempts38
29Shots on goal25

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
12:30 MTL xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.18–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–0
3rd Period
16:34 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Lindgren, down 4–2
With 3:26 left; MTL scored at 16:44 of the 3rd (2–5)
17:37 WSH Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Lindgren, down 5–2
With 2:23 left; MTL scored at 18:35 of the 3rd (2–6)

Shot map

WSH shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots
Aliaksei Protas: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:03) Kaiden Guhle: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:13) Oliver Kapanen: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:01) Ryan Leonard: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:12) Alexandre Carrier: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:40) Alex Ovechkin: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 5:22) Noah Dobson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:04) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 7:03) Nic Dowd: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:41) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:02) Alex Ovechkin: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 9:11) Ethen Frank: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 10:19) Martin Fehérváry: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:45) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:07) Cole Caufield: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.25 (P1 12:52) Ivan Demidov: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:54) Declan Chisholm: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:14) Cole Caufield: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 15:52) Lane Hutson: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:43) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 0:30) Dylan Strome: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 0:32) Dylan Strome: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 0:33) Dylan Strome: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 0:41) Nick Suzuki: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:03) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 1:54) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 2:29) Oliver Kapanen: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:42) Nick Suzuki: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:27) Alexandre Carrier: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:32) Ryan Leonard: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:41) Pierre-Luc Dubois: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:46) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:00) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:50) Noah Dobson: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:26) Nick Suzuki: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:20) Ivan Demidov: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:04) Ivan Demidov: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 11:39) Juraj Slafkovský: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:49) Cole Caufield: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 11:57) Zachary Bolduc: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:50) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:00) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:39) Tom Wilson: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.41 (P2 14:42) Kaiden Guhle: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:13) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:55) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 16:23) Lane Hutson: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:53) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:30) Jake Evans: snap, 158 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:32) Anthony Beauvillier: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:48) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 100 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 19:58) Matt Roy: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:45) Alexandre Carrier: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:45) Trevor van Riemsdyk: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:48) Mike Matheson: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:57) Connor McMichael: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:07) Martin Fehérváry: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:46) Connor McMichael: deflected, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:42) Connor McMichael: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 9:43) Ethen Frank: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:44) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 9:50) Ivan Demidov: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 10:32) Dylan Strome: snap, 86 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 11:46) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 13:31) Nick Suzuki: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 13:59) Juraj Slafkovský: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:05) Cole Caufield: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 14:33) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:32) Brandon Duhaime: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:16) Tom Wilson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:29) Mike Matheson: snap, 114 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 18:36) Justin Sourdif: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 19:22) Cole Caufield: GOAL, snap, 21 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 0:30) Alex Ovechkin: GOAL, snap, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 13:16) Cole Caufield: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.38 (P1 14:19) Mike Matheson: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 12:22) Kirby Dach: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:34) Alex Ovechkin: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 12:12) Nick Suzuki: GOAL, backhand, 49 ft, xG 0.40 (P3 16:44) Jake Evans: GOAL, wrist, 164 ft, xG 0.51 (P3 18:35)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 -3 20.47 3019:16
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 000 -4 50.54 2018:22
21 Aliaksei Protas 000 0 40.22 1018:05
17 Dylan Strome 011 0 60.50 0116:07
8 Alex Ovechkin 202 -2 90.56 2015:30
77 Connor McMichael 000 -1 30.18 1015:09
9 Ryan Leonard 000 -2 40.07 1015:09
26 Nic Dowd 000 -1 10.00 2114:48
34 Justin Sourdif 000 -1 10.19 1012:43
72 Anthony Beauvillier 022 0 20.05 0112:42
53 Ethen Frank 000 -1 20.25 1111:30
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 -1 10.02 0010:43
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 000 -5 80.27 0023:20
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 0 40.09 4321:28
3 Matt Roy 000 -2 10.02 0320:58
38 Rasmus Sandin 000 -2 10.00 1219:06
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 +2 10.03 0115:12
47 Declan Chisholm 011 +1 10.01 1013:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Charlie Lindgren 23419 .826 3.32 -0.68

Montréal Canadiens

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
14 Nick Suzuki 123 +4 60.73 0118:25
24 Phillip Danault 000 +2 10.00 0017:53
13 Cole Caufield 202 +3 71.20 1216:19
17 Josh Anderson 000 0 00.00 2015:40
71 Jake Evans 101 +1 20.51 0214:25
20 Juraj Slafkovský 000 -1 60.58 1014:23
7 Brendan Gallagher 000 0 00.00 2013:47
15 Alex Newhook 011 +1 20.00 0013:45
77 Kirby Dach 101 +2 20.06 0013:44
93 Ivan Demidov 000 -1 60.52 0012:44
76 Zachary Bolduc 011 +1 10.09 3112:24
91 Oliver Kapanen 000 -1 40.08 0011:41
Defense
21 Kaiden Guhle 000 +1 20.05 2324:48
8 Mike Matheson 101 +4 40.24 1024:04
48 Lane Hutson 000 0 40.07 0220:14
45 Alexandre Carrier 000 +1 30.05 0118:01
53 Noah Dobson 000 +1 30.05 0016:35
3 Jayden Struble 011 +1 10.00 1011:08
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jakub Dobes 29227 .931 3.47 +1.47

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
17 Dylan Strome C +2.61 +0.70 +0.33 +1.57 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 16:07
8 Alex Ovechkin L +2.01 +1.50 +0.37 +0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:30
21 Aliaksei Protas C +1.14 0.00 +0.14 +1.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:05
42 Martin Fehérváry D +1.08 0.00 +0.06 +0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 21:28
72 Anthony Beauvillier L +1.06 +1.25 +0.04 -0.27 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 12:42
43 Tom Wilson R +1.04 0.00 +0.30 +0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:16
47 Declan Chisholm D +0.79 +0.55 +0.01 +0.14 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 13:00
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D +0.49 0.00 +0.02 +0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 15:12
38 Rasmus Sandin D +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:06
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L +0.05 0.00 +0.35 -0.49 +0.15 +0.06 -0.02 — 18:22
22 Brandon Duhaime R -0.31 0.00 +0.01 -0.45 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 10:43
53 Ethen Frank C -0.33 0.00 +0.17 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:30
34 Justin Sourdif R -0.43 0.00 +0.12 -0.54 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 12:43
9 Ryan Leonard R -0.51 0.00 +0.04 -0.39 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:09
24 Connor McMichael C -0.52 0.00 +0.12 -0.48 -0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 15:09
26 Nic Dowd C -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.64 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 14:48
79 Charlie Lindgren G -0.68 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.68 58:52
6 Jakob Chychrun D -0.77 0.00 +0.18 -0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 23:20
3 Matt Roy D -0.78 0.00 +0.01 -0.94 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:58

Montréal Canadiens

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
14 Nick Suzuki C +4.05 +2.15 +0.48 +1.42 0.00 -0.03 +0.03 — 18:25
13 Cole Caufield R +3.76 +1.50 +0.78 +1.38 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 16:19
77 Kirby Dach C +1.62 +0.75 +0.04 +0.70 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:44
76 Zachary Bolduc R +1.47 +0.70 +0.06 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:24
75 Jakub Dobes G +1.47 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.47 60:00
47 Jayden Struble D +1.32 +0.55 0.00 +0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:08
71 Jake Evans C +1.29 +0.75 +0.33 +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.10 — 14:25
8 Mike Matheson D +1.17 +0.75 +0.16 +0.51 -0.15 0.00 -0.10 — 24:04
15 Alex Newhook C +0.55 +0.55 0.00 +0.06 0.00 -0.04 -0.02 — 13:45
48 Lane Hutson D -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 20:14
93 Ivan Demidov R -0.03 0.00 +0.34 -0.52 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 12:44
53 Noah Dobson D -0.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:35
20 Juraj Slafkovský L -0.18 0.00 +0.38 -0.55 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 14:23
45 Alexandre Carrier D -0.27 0.00 +0.03 -0.21 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 18:01
21 Kaiden Guhle D -0.43 0.00 +0.03 -0.72 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 24:48
91 Oliver Kapanen C -0.44 0.00 +0.05 -0.52 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 11:41
24 Phillip Danault C -0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.83 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:53
17 Josh Anderson R -0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.86 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 15:40
11 Brendan Gallagher R -0.90 0.00 0.00 -0.73 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 13:47

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.