| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:30 | Cole Caufield (34) Unassisted · snap xG 0.15 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 13:16 | Alex Ovechkin (23) Anthony Beauvillier (9), Declan Chisholm (5) · snap xG 0.14 | 1–1 ▶ | |
| 14:19 | Cole Caufield (35) Nick Suzuki (48), Jayden Struble (9) · backhand xG 0.38 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 12:22 | Mike Matheson (6) Zachary Bolduc (14), Alex Newhook (8) · snap xG 0.21 | 1–3 ▶ | |
| 16:34 | Kirby Dach (8) Nick Suzuki (49) · snap xG 0.06 | 1–4 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 12:12 | Alex Ovechkin (24) Dylan Strome (32), Anthony Beauvillier (10) · snap xG 0.20 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 16:44 | Nick Suzuki (19)EN Unassisted · backhand xG 0.40 | 2–5 ▶ | |
| 18:35 | Jake Evans (8)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.51 | 2–6 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| WSH | MTL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.47 | Expected goals | 4.24 |
| 2 | Goals (no shootout) | 6 |
| 2.33 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 2.15 |
| 56 | Shot attempts | 54 |
| 42 | Unblocked attempts | 38 |
| 29 | Shots on goal | 25 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | MTL | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.18–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:50 to 12:50 of the 2nd; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 16:34 | WSH | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Lindgren, down 4–2
With 3:26 left; MTL scored at 16:44 of the 3rd (2–5) |
| 17:37 | WSH | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Lindgren, down 5–2
With 2:23 left; MTL scored at 18:35 of the 3rd (2–6) |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 43 | Tom Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.47 | 3 | 0 | 19:16 |
| 80 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 5 | 0.54 | 2 | 0 | 18:22 |
| 21 | Aliaksei Protas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.22 | 1 | 0 | 18:05 |
| 17 | Dylan Strome | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.50 | 0 | 1 | 16:07 |
| 8 | Alex Ovechkin | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 | 0.56 | 2 | 0 | 15:30 |
| 77 | Connor McMichael | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 9 | Ryan Leonard | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.07 | 1 | 0 | 15:09 |
| 26 | Nic Dowd | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 14:48 |
| 34 | Justin Sourdif | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 0 | 12:43 |
| 72 | Anthony Beauvillier | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 12:42 |
| 53 | Ethen Frank | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 11:30 |
| 24 | Brandon Duhaime | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 6 | Jakob Chychrun | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 8 | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 |
| 42 | Martin Fehérváry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.09 | 4 | 3 | 21:28 |
| 3 | Matt Roy | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 3 | 20:58 |
| 38 | Rasmus Sandin | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 2 | 19:06 |
| 57 | Trevor van Riemsdyk | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 1 | 15:12 |
| 47 | Declan Chisholm | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.01 | 1 | 0 | 13:00 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | 23 | 4 | 19 | .826 | 3.32 | -0.68 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 14 | Nick Suzuki | 1 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 6 | 0.73 | 0 | 1 | 18:25 |
| 24 | Phillip Danault | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 |
| 13 | Cole Caufield | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 7 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 | 16:19 |
| 17 | Josh Anderson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 15:40 |
| 71 | Jake Evans | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 2 | 14:25 |
| 20 | Juraj Slafkovský | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.58 | 1 | 0 | 14:23 |
| 7 | Brendan Gallagher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 13:47 |
| 15 | Alex Newhook | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 |
| 77 | Kirby Dach | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 |
| 93 | Ivan Demidov | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.52 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 |
| 76 | Zachary Bolduc | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.09 | 3 | 1 | 12:24 |
| 91 | Oliver Kapanen | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 21 | Kaiden Guhle | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.05 | 2 | 3 | 24:48 |
| 8 | Mike Matheson | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 0 | 24:04 |
| 48 | Lane Hutson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 20:14 |
| 45 | Alexandre Carrier | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 1 | 18:01 |
| 53 | Noah Dobson | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 |
| 3 | Jayden Struble | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 11:08 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 29 | 2 | 27 | .931 | 3.47 | +1.47 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Dylan Strome C | +2.61 | +0.70 | +0.33 | +1.57 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.05 | — | 16:07 |
| 8 Alex Ovechkin L | +2.01 | +1.50 | +0.37 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 15:30 |
| 21 Aliaksei Protas C | +1.14 | 0.00 | +0.14 | +1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 18:05 |
| 42 Martin Fehérváry D | +1.08 | 0.00 | +0.06 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 21:28 |
| 72 Anthony Beauvillier L | +1.06 | +1.25 | +0.04 | -0.27 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | — | 12:42 |
| 43 Tom Wilson R | +1.04 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 19:16 |
| 47 Declan Chisholm D | +0.79 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.14 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.06 | — | 13:00 |
| 57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D | +0.49 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 15:12 |
| 38 Rasmus Sandin D | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 19:06 |
| 80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L | +0.05 | 0.00 | +0.35 | -0.49 | +0.15 | +0.06 | -0.02 | — | 18:22 |
| 22 Brandon Duhaime R | -0.31 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.45 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:43 |
| 53 Ethen Frank C | -0.33 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 11:30 |
| 34 Justin Sourdif R | -0.43 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.54 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.00 | — | 12:43 |
| 9 Ryan Leonard R | -0.51 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.39 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:09 |
| 24 Connor McMichael C | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.12 | -0.48 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.00 | — | 15:09 |
| 26 Nic Dowd C | -0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.64 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 14:48 |
| 79 Charlie Lindgren G | -0.68 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -0.68 | 58:52 |
| 6 Jakob Chychrun D | -0.77 | 0.00 | +0.18 | -0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 23:20 |
| 3 Matt Roy D | -0.78 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 20:58 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nick Suzuki C | +4.05 | +2.15 | +0.48 | +1.42 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.03 | — | 18:25 |
| 13 Cole Caufield R | +3.76 | +1.50 | +0.78 | +1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 16:19 |
| 77 Kirby Dach C | +1.62 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.70 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:44 |
| 76 Zachary Bolduc R | +1.47 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:24 |
| 75 Jakub Dobes G | +1.47 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.47 | 60:00 |
| 47 Jayden Struble D | +1.32 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:08 |
| 71 Jake Evans C | +1.29 | +0.75 | +0.33 | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.10 | — | 14:25 |
| 8 Mike Matheson D | +1.17 | +0.75 | +0.16 | +0.51 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.10 | — | 24:04 |
| 15 Alex Newhook C | +0.55 | +0.55 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.02 | — | 13:45 |
| 48 Lane Hutson D | -0.01 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | — | 20:14 |
| 93 Ivan Demidov R | -0.03 | 0.00 | +0.34 | -0.52 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:44 |
| 53 Noah Dobson D | -0.11 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 16:35 |
| 20 Juraj Slafkovský L | -0.18 | 0.00 | +0.38 | -0.55 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 14:23 |
| 45 Alexandre Carrier D | -0.27 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 18:01 |
| 21 Kaiden Guhle D | -0.43 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.72 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.11 | — | 24:48 |
| 91 Oliver Kapanen C | -0.44 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.52 | 0.00 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 11:41 |
| 24 Phillip Danault C | -0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.83 | 0.00 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 17:53 |
| 17 Josh Anderson R | -0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:40 |
| 11 Brendan Gallagher R | -0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.73 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:47 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.