Sunday, March 1, 2026
How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 1, 2026 3:40 PM EST.
Highlights
Shot quality
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken,
the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
CHI 54%Deserve to win 46% UTA
CHI UTA
2.25 Expected goals 2.03
4 Goals (no shootout) 0
1.52 Expected goals, 5 on 5 1.74
48 Shot attempts 51
37 Unblocked attempts 38
28 Shots on goal 22
Game notes
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is
counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the
shots' expected goals (xG).
3rd Period
1:25
UTA
Goalie
Goalie · Vejmelka −2.2 goals saved
4 goals on 1.79 xG, 23 shots on goal
19:00
CHI
Goalie
Goalie · Soderblom +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.02 xG, 22 shots on goal
Shot map
CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal → UTA shoots
Alexander Kerfoot: slap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:29)
Clayton Keller: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:10)
Ryan Donato: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:57)
Artyom Levshunov: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:08)
Frank Nazar: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:20)
Louis Crevier: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 5:14)
Teuvo Teravainen: slap, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 5:30)
Artyom Levshunov: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 6:22)
Lawson Crouse: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:31)
Connor Bedard: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 6:53)
Lawson Crouse: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:29)
Oliver Moore: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:50)
JJ Peterka: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 9:02)
Michael Carcone: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 10:25)
Nick Schmaltz: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:40)
Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:24)
Teuvo Teravainen: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 12:03)
Kevin Stenlund: backhand, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:59)
Artyom Levshunov: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:17)
Oliver Moore: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:18)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:43)
Olli Maatta: wrist, 103 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:59)
Matt Grzelcyk: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:49)
Ryan Greene: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:55)
Ryan Greene: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 15:56)
Jack McBain: wrist, 105 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 17:04)
JJ Peterka: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:10)
Ilya Mikheyev: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:27)
Michael Carcone: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:25)
Kevin Stenlund: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:52)
JJ Peterka: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 4:37)
Ryan Greene: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:52)
Artyom Levshunov: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:06)
John Marino: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:02)
Barrett Hayton: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:51)
Oliver Moore: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:57)
Matt Grzelcyk: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:06)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 10:19)
JJ Peterka: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:15)
Sean Durzi: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:20)
Sean Durzi: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:32)
Dylan Guenther: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:51)
JJ Peterka: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:38)
Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 15:18)
Connor Murphy: wrist, 96 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:41)
Connor Bedard: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 16:18)
Lawson Crouse: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:37)
Lawson Crouse: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 16:38)
Alex Vlasic: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:44)
Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:48)
Alex Vlasic: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:18)
Matt Grzelcyk: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 3:36)
Nick Schmaltz: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 4:20)
Clayton Keller: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:29)
Logan Cooley: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 4:58)
Ryan Donato: wrist, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:10)
JJ Peterka: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:24)
Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:24)
Kevin Korchinski: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:39)
Logan Cooley: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 10:56)
JJ Peterka: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:57)
Mikhail Sergachev: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 13:56)
Nate Schmidt: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 14:41)
Connor Bedard: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:47)
Connor Bedard: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 16:38)
Michael Carcone: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 16:58)
Jack McBain: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 16:59)
Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 17:19)
Ilya Mikheyev: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 18:49)
Dylan Guenther: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:00)
JJ Peterka: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:04)
Teuvo Teravainen: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 19:05)
Nick Foligno: GOAL, backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 11:38)
Landon Slaggert: GOAL, snap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:07)
Teuvo Teravainen: GOAL, snap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:25)
About these numbers
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot
from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the
share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how
often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count
as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map
leaves them out.
All columns
Box score
Chicago Blackhawks
Utah Mammoth
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
Player ratings
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
Chicago Blackhawks
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
40 Arvid Soderblom G
+2.03
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
+2.03
60:00
86 Teuvo Teravainen C
+1.75
+1.50
+0.27
-0.11
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
17:53
17 Nick Foligno L
+1.44
+0.75
+0.12
+0.57
0.00
-0.02
+0.02
—
11:07
84 Landon Slaggert L
+1.20
+0.75
+0.03
+0.37
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
10:19
11 Oliver Moore C
+1.05
+0.70
+0.04
+0.36
0.00
-0.04
0.00
—
10:50
5 Connor Murphy D
+0.92
+0.55
0.00
+0.27
0.00
0.00
+0.10
—
21:38
55 Artyom Levshunov D
+0.84
+0.55
+0.12
+0.09
0.00
0.00
+0.08
—
17:04
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L
+0.80
+0.70
+0.10
+0.03
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
—
17:36
72 Alex Vlasic D
+0.50
+0.70
+0.09
-0.48
+0.15
0.00
+0.04
—
24:24
14 Kevin Korchinski D
+0.46
0.00
+0.01
+0.49
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
10:27
95 Ilya Mikheyev R
+0.40
0.00
+0.11
+0.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:34
16 Jason Dickinson C
+0.24
0.00
0.00
+0.33
0.00
-0.11
+0.02
—
15:39
98 Connor Bedard C
+0.20
0.00
+0.28
-0.15
0.00
+0.02
+0.05
—
18:57
48 Matt Grzelcyk D
+0.11
0.00
+0.02
+0.02
0.00
0.00
+0.07
—
20:42
20 Ryan Greene C
-0.05
0.00
+0.17
-0.20
0.00
-0.02
0.00
—
15:38
28 Andre Burakovsky L
-0.22
0.00
0.00
-0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
—
16:04
91 Frank Nazar C
-0.32
0.00
+0.01
-0.50
+0.15
0.00
+0.02
—
16:48
46 Louis Crevier D
-0.33
0.00
+0.08
-0.31
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
20:07
8 Ryan Donato C
-0.49
0.00
+0.02
-0.57
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
12:13
Utah Mammoth
Player
Rating
Points
Shots
On ice
Pen
FO
Other
GSAx
TOI
77 JJ Peterka R
+1.04
0.00
+0.31
+0.74
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
18:10
56 Kailer Yamamoto R
+0.94
0.00
0.00
+0.92
0.00
+0.02
0.00
—
14:01
27 Barrett Hayton C
+0.38
0.00
+0.03
+0.30
0.00
+0.05
0.00
—
12:32
6 John Marino D
+0.33
0.00
+0.02
+0.33
0.00
0.00
-0.02
—
20:17
53 Michael Carcone L
+0.11
0.00
+0.18
-0.07
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
10:27
92 Logan Cooley C
+0.05
0.00
+0.22
-0.26
0.00
+0.04
+0.05
—
15:09
98 Mikhail Sergachev D
+0.04
0.00
+0.18
-0.15
0.00
0.00
+0.01
—
24:02
8 Nick Schmaltz C
+0.03
0.00
+0.08
-0.06
0.00
+0.01
0.00
—
19:27
15 Alexander Kerfoot C
+0.01
0.00
+0.02
-0.06
0.00
-0.01
+0.05
—
13:38
88 Nate Schmidt D
-0.03
0.00
0.00
+0.11
-0.15
0.00
+0.01
—
19:12
82 Kevin Stenlund C
-0.05
0.00
+0.04
-0.08
0.00
+0.03
-0.04
—
14:04
50 Sean Durzi D
-0.10
0.00
+0.04
-0.19
0.00
0.00
+0.05
—
22:41
9 Clayton Keller R
-0.12
0.00
+0.04
-0.27
+0.15
0.00
-0.04
—
17:41
2 Olli Maatta D
-0.16
0.00
0.00
-0.12
0.00
0.00
-0.04
—
15:11
28 Ian Cole D
-0.18
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-0.15
0.00
+0.05
—
15:45
67 Lawson Crouse L
-0.28
0.00
+0.10
-0.23
-0.15
+0.02
-0.02
—
15:15
22 Jack McBain C
-0.37
0.00
+0.02
-0.41
0.00
+0.01
+0.01
—
12:08
11 Dylan Guenther R
-0.54
0.00
+0.04
-0.69
0.00
0.00
+0.11
—
13:37
70 Karel Vejmelka G
-1.75
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
-1.75
60:00
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a
player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays,
all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.