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Winnipeg JetsWPG 1–2 Final/OT San Jose SharksSJS

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Final/OT 1st2nd3rdOT T SOG
Winnipeg JetsWPG 1000 1 28
San Jose SharksSJS 0011 2 33
Playoff odds, % Change
SJS +6.2
WPG -2.3
EDM -1.0
SEA -0.8
LAK -0.7
NSH -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 1, 2026 3:40 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
2:44 WPG Morgan Barron (8) Tanner Pearson (4), Cole Koepke (7) · wrist xG 0.04 1–0 ▶
2nd Period
No scoring
3rd Period
1:47 SJS Will Smith (18) Collin Graf (17), Macklin Celebrini (54) · bat xG 0.28 1–1 ▶
Overtime
1:40 SJS Michael Misa (4) William Eklund (26), Sam Dickinson (9) · wrist xG 0.13 1–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

WPG 41%Deserve to win59% SJS
WPGSJS
2.39Expected goals2.88
1Goals (no shootout)2
1.66Expected goals, 5 on 52.29
44Shot attempts66
33Unblocked attempts49
28Shots on goal33

Shot map

WPG shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SJS shoots
Alex Iafallo: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:10) Collin Graf: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:22) Elias Salomonsson: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:07) John Klingberg: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 1:36) Tyler Toffoli: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:57) Luke Schenn: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:11) Barclay Goodrow: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:30) William Eklund: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 2:33) Barclay Goodrow: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 2:34) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:15) Logan Stanley: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:34) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:40) Shakir Mukhamadullin: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:18) Will Smith: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 5:43) John Klingberg: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 7:02) William Eklund: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:14) Walker Duehr: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 8:28) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:58) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:07) Tyler Toffoli: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:10) Michael Misa: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 11:14) William Eklund: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:28) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:35) Vincent Desharnais: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:41) Philipp Kurashev: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:07) Philipp Kurashev: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 14:37) Alex Iafallo: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:59) Will Smith: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 15:05) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:14) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:16) Cole Koepke: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:33) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:57) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 0:28) Logan Stanley: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:07) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 1:10) Sam Dickinson: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:41) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:22) William Eklund: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:40) Walker Duehr: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:50) Collin Graf: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:11) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:59) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:27) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:40) Luke Schenn: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:17) John Klingberg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:00) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.33 (P2 17:13) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 17:13) Kyle Connor: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 17:29) Mario Ferraro: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:17) Philipp Kurashev: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:42) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 0:44) Macklin Celebrini: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:08) Kyle Connor: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 1:17) Collin Graf: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 1:45) Jonathan Toews: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:01) Logan Stanley: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:09) Will Smith: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:02) Sam Dickinson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:55) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:44) William Eklund: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 6:00) Dylan Samberg: wrist, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:44) Collin Graf: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:15) Cole Koepke: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:51) Tanner Pearson: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:00) Mario Ferraro: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:19) Will Smith: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:26) Logan Stanley: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:27) Will Smith: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 12:33) Tyler Toffoli: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 13:48) William Eklund: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 14:14) Kiefer Sherwood: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:15) Logan Stanley: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:53) Morgan Barron: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 16:52) Tyler Toffoli: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 17:25) Dmitry Orlov: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:55) Gabriel Vilardi: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:37) Cole Perfetti: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 19:34) Kiefer Sherwood: tip-in, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:56) Kyle Connor: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (OT 0:38) Morgan Barron: GOAL, wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:44) Will Smith: GOAL, bat, 6 ft, xG 0.28 (P3 1:47) Michael Misa: GOAL, wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (OT 1:40)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Winnipeg Jets

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
81 Kyle Connor 000 -1 30.18 0123:08
55 Mark Scheifele 000 -1 20.00 0122:51
13 Gabriel Vilardi 000 -1 10.13 0019:43
91 Cole Perfetti 000 -1 50.86 0017:34
36 Morgan Barron 101 +1 20.22 1316:17
17 Adam Lowry 000 -1 00.00 4015:58
45 Cole Koepke 011 +1 30.04 2014:09
9 Alex Iafallo 000 0 20.02 3114:04
70 Tanner Pearson 011 +1 40.45 0110:47
14 Gustav Nyquist 000 0 00.00 1109:28
19 Jonathan Toews 000 0 10.01 0008:42
71 Walker Duehr 000 0 20.15 2108:20
Defense
54 Dylan Samberg 000 +1 30.04 0524:12
8 Logan Stanley 000 0 70.26 1023:50
2 Dylan DeMelo 000 0 40.00 1023:20
57 Elias Salomonsson 000 +1 10.01 2118:47
2 Luke Schenn 000 -1 30.03 1013:13
24 Haydn Fleury 000 -2 10.00 2112:47
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Hellebuyck 33231 .939 2.88 +0.88

San Jose Sharks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Alexander Wennberg 000 0 00.00 0120:57
71 Macklin Celebrini 011 0 20.18 1219:58
2 Will Smith 101 +1 60.65 0018:36
44 Kiefer Sherwood 000 0 50.14 9017:31
51 Collin Graf 011 +1 40.21 2017:16
96 Philipp Kurashev 000 0 30.26 0117:07
77 Michael Misa 101 +2 20.23 0015:39
27 William Eklund 011 +1 80.46 0115:33
73 Tyler Toffoli 000 0 70.22 0013:56
23 Barclay Goodrow 000 -1 20.09 0010:22
63 Zack Ostapchuk 000 -1 00.00 4009:33
84 Pavol Regenda 000 -1 10.00 0007:46
Defense
38 Mario Ferraro 000 -1 30.05 4021:16
9 Dmitry Orlov 000 +1 30.07 2120:36
3 John Klingberg 000 0 90.22 1019:41
6 Sam Dickinson 011 +1 60.07 0118:36
73 Vincent Desharnais 000 0 40.02 2018:19
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin 000 0 10.01 0116:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Alex Nedeljkovic 28127 .964 2.39 +1.39

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Winnipeg Jets

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
70 Tanner Pearson L +1.22 +0.70 +0.29 +0.21 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 10:47
37 Connor Hellebuyck G +1.03 0.00 — — +0.15 — — +0.88 61:30
45 Cole Koepke L +0.96 +0.55 +0.02 +0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:09
64 Logan Stanley D +0.82 0.00 +0.17 +0.64 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 23:50
36 Morgan Barron C +0.70 +0.75 +0.14 -0.35 0.00 +0.01 +0.15 — 16:17
2 Dylan DeMelo D +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.51 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 23:20
91 Cole Perfetti C +0.61 0.00 +0.56 +0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:34
71 Walker Duehr R 0.00 0.00 +0.10 -0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 8:20
55 Mark Scheifele C -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 22:51
57 Elias Salomonsson D -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.01 — 18:47
13 Gabriel Vilardi C -0.09 0.00 +0.08 -0.29 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:43
54 Dylan Samberg D -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.27 — 24:12
9 Alex Iafallo L -0.28 0.00 +0.01 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:04
81 Kyle Connor L -0.32 0.00 +0.11 -0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 23:08
19 Jonathan Toews C -0.38 0.00 +0.01 -0.26 -0.15 +0.02 0.00 — 8:42
14 Gustav Nyquist R -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 9:28
17 Adam Lowry C -0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.35 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 15:58
24 Haydn Fleury D -1.08 0.00 0.00 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.07 — 12:47
5 Luke Schenn D -1.22 0.00 +0.02 -1.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:13

San Jose Sharks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
2 Will Smith C +1.84 +0.75 +0.43 +0.52 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 18:36
77 Michael Misa C +1.78 +0.75 +0.15 +0.90 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:39
72 William Eklund L +1.48 +0.70 +0.30 +0.45 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:33
33 Alex Nedeljkovic G +1.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.39 61:40
6 Sam Dickinson D +1.29 +0.55 +0.04 +0.66 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:36
71 Macklin Celebrini C +0.91 +0.55 +0.11 +0.06 +0.15 -0.01 +0.04 — 19:58
51 Collin Graf R +0.75 +0.70 +0.14 -0.10 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:16
96 Philipp Kurashev C +0.49 0.00 +0.17 +0.43 -0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 17:07
85 Shakir Mukhamadullin D +0.48 0.00 +0.01 +0.58 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:18
9 Dmitry Orlov D +0.36 0.00 +0.05 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:36
73 Tyler Toffoli C +0.32 0.00 +0.14 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:56
5 Vincent Desharnais D +0.29 0.00 +0.01 +0.13 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:19
3 John Klingberg D +0.26 0.00 +0.15 -0.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:41
23 Barclay Goodrow C +0.23 0.00 +0.06 +0.16 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:22
44 Kiefer Sherwood L +0.05 0.00 +0.09 +0.10 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:31
63 Zack Ostapchuk C -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:33
21 Alexander Wennberg C -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.18 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 20:57
38 Mario Ferraro D -0.28 0.00 +0.03 -0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:16
84 Pavol Regenda L -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 7:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.