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Edmonton OilersEDM 4–2 Final Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 013 4 19
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 011 2 26
Playoff odds, % Change
EDM +8.7
VGK -4.9
SJS -0.9
SEA -0.9
LAK -0.7
NSH -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 8, 2026 9:33 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
3:21 EDM Trent Frederic (4) Evan Bouchard (55), Colton Dach (7) · wrist xG 0.10 1–0 ▶
13:09 VGK Noah Hanifin (3) Mitch Marner (46), Ivan Barbashev (26) · snap xG 0.03 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
2:34 EDM Vasily Podkolzin (15) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.04 2–1 ▶
11:53 EDM Leon Draisaitl (34) Connor McDavid (72) · backhand xG 0.14 3–1 ▶
16:43 VGK Jack Eichel (22)SH Mitch Marner (47) · wrist xG 0.03 3–2 ▶
18:03 EDM Kasperi Kapanen (6)EN Connor McDavid (73), Mattias Ekholm (28) · wrist xG 0.93 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 65%Deserve to win35% VGK
EDMVGK
4.15Expected goals2.39
4Goals (no shootout)2
2.33Expected goals, 5 on 52.00
46Shot attempts64
34Unblocked attempts45
19Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:27 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Hill, down 3–2
With 2:33 left; EDM scored at 18:03 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ VGK shoots
Darnell Nurse: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:24) Connor Murphy: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:12) Kasperi Kapanen: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 1:31) Jason Dickinson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 2:13) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 98 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 2:43) Evan Bouchard: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:18) Zach Hyman: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 4:29) Connor Murphy: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:23) Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.32 (P1 7:28) Brayden McNabb: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:29) Braeden Bowman: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:32) Jack Eichel: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:39) Ivan Barbashev: deflected, 12 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:40) Noah Hanifin: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 10:20) Pavel Dorofeyev: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 12:12) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:48) Mitch Marner: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:49) Shea Theodore: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:27) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:05) Cole Smith: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 14:13) Brandon Saad: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 14:24) Zach Hyman: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:53) Connor McDavid: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 15:16) Pavel Dorofeyev: slap, 48 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:16) Jake Walman: wrist, 184 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:20) Brayden McNabb: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:08) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 17:45) Jack Roslovic: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.36 (P1 17:57) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 19:37) Mitch Marner: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:15) Jack Eichel: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 1:58) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 2:17) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:45) Colton Dach: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 3:16) Trent Frederic: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.32 (P2 3:20) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:47) Cole Smith: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:48) Ty Emberson: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 6:07) Trent Frederic: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:12) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:00) Keegan Kolesar: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 10:03) Brayden McNabb: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:16) Zach Hyman: backhand, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 10:26) Shea Theodore: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 10:40) Jack Eichel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:53) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 12:01) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:09) Nic Dowd: deflected, 32 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:10) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 17:05) Jack Eichel: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 18:17) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:20) Pavel Dorofeyev: bat, 14 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:40) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 19:41) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:44) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:04) Evan Bouchard: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:12) Braeden Bowman: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:32) Noah Hanifin: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:47) Shea Theodore: wrist, 92 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 5:49) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:00) Colton Dach: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 8:16) Nic Dowd: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:18) Shea Theodore: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:03) Connor McDavid: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:17) Shea Theodore: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 12:15) Leon Draisaitl: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 12:26) Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 12:28) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:41) Braeden Bowman: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:24) Leon Draisaitl: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 15:13) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 15:37) Connor McDavid: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:56) Tomas Hertl: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:47) Trent Frederic: GOAL, wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 3:21) Noah Hanifin: GOAL, snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 13:09) Vasily Podkolzin: GOAL, wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:34) Leon Draisaitl: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 11:53) Jack Eichel: GOAL, wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 16:43) Kasperi Kapanen: GOAL, wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.93 (P3 18:03)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 022 +1 50.31 1021:37
29 Leon Draisaitl 101 0 40.52 2020:59
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 0 60.20 0119:11
18 Zach Hyman 000 -1 30.26 0018:33
42 Kasperi Kapanen 101 0 31.10 2115:56
16 Jason Dickinson 000 0 10.21 6215:33
92 Vasily Podkolzin 101 +1 20.36 4215:05
22 Matt Savoie 000 0 10.00 0113:27
96 Jack Roslovic 000 +1 10.36 0012:14
10 Trent Frederic 101 +1 30.43 0010:59
81 Josh Samanski 000 +1 00.00 0107:39
34 Colton Dach 011 +1 40.25 3005:05
Defense
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -1 20.03 2023:14
5 Connor Murphy 000 0 20.02 2322:33
2 Evan Bouchard 011 +2 30.07 2021:51
96 Jake Walman 000 +2 30.00 1419:23
49 Ty Emberson 000 -1 10.01 1316:29
14 Mattias Ekholm 011 +2 20.00 0114:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Ingram 26224 .923 2.39 +0.39

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 101 -1 80.32 0021:40
93 Mitch Marner 022 +1 40.13 0118:29
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 0 30.18 4018:11
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 000 -1 100.40 0017:04
48 Tomas Hertl 000 -3 40.32 0015:49
15 Colton Sissons 000 0 20.03 0015:43
21 Brett Howden 000 +1 00.00 3015:29
42 Braeden Bowman 000 -1 40.37 0215:27
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 20.14 1013:54
22 Cole Smith 000 0 30.10 2012:17
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 -2 10.10 2009:26
20 Brandon Saad 000 -2 20.05 0008:36
Defense
27 Shea Theodore 000 0 60.11 0021:36
15 Noah Hanifin 101 +1 70.06 0421:15
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -2 20.02 0120:25
3 Brayden McNabb 000 0 40.07 2019:33
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 10.00 1015:01
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -2 10.00 0314:41
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 18315 .833 3.22 +0.22

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +2.05 +0.75 +0.24 +0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 15:05
2 Evan Bouchard D +1.95 +0.70 +0.04 +1.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:51
29 Leon Draisaitl C +1.84 +0.75 +0.34 +0.56 +0.15 +0.02 +0.02 — 20:59
14 Mattias Ekholm D +1.54 +0.55 0.00 +1.11 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:12
34 Colton Dach C +1.49 +0.55 +0.16 +0.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 5:05
10 Trent Frederic C +1.46 +0.75 +0.28 +0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:59
42 Kasperi Kapanen R +1.33 +0.75 +0.71 -0.16 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 15:56
28 Jack Roslovic C +1.01 0.00 +0.23 +0.76 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 12:14
97 Connor McDavid C +0.95 +1.40 +0.20 -0.78 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:37
81 Josh Samanski C +0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.54 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 7:39
39 Connor Ingram G +0.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.39 60:00
96 Jake Walman D +0.32 0.00 0.00 +0.31 -0.15 0.00 +0.16 — 19:23
16 Jason Dickinson C +0.16 0.00 +0.14 -0.01 0.00 -0.04 +0.08 — 15:33
22 Matt Savoie C +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 +0.09 — 13:27
5 Connor Murphy D +0.02 0.00 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 22:33
49 Ty Emberson D -0.41 0.00 +0.01 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:29
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -0.53 0.00 +0.13 -0.72 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 19:11
18 Zach Hyman L -0.58 0.00 +0.17 -0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:33
25 Darnell Nurse D -0.92 0.00 +0.02 -0.90 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 23:14

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
49 Ivan Barbashev L +1.47 +0.55 +0.12 +0.82 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:11
15 Noah Hanifin D +1.45 +0.75 +0.04 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 21:15
9 Jack Eichel C +1.30 +0.75 +0.21 +0.39 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 21:40
93 Mitch Marner R +1.10 +1.40 +0.08 -0.47 0.00 -0.01 +0.09 — 18:29
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.92 0.00 +0.24 +0.59 0.00 -0.01 +0.10 — 15:27
27 Shea Theodore D +0.69 0.00 +0.07 +0.77 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 21:36
3 Brayden McNabb D +0.57 0.00 +0.04 +0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:33
62 Nic Dowd C +0.23 0.00 +0.09 +0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 13:54
33 Adin Hill G +0.22 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.22 59:24
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.21 0.00 +0.26 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:04
10 Colton Sissons C +0.17 0.00 +0.02 +0.18 0.00 -0.03 0.00 — 15:43
22 Cole Smith R -0.01 0.00 +0.06 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:17
48 Tomas Hertl C -0.38 0.00 +0.21 -0.66 0.00 +0.07 0.00 — 15:49
6 Kaedan Korczak D -0.44 0.00 0.00 -0.42 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:01
21 Brett Howden C -0.57 0.00 0.00 -0.56 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:29
4 Rasmus Andersson D -0.67 0.00 +0.01 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:25
55 Keegan Kolesar R -0.79 0.00 +0.06 -0.99 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:26
20 Brandon Saad L -0.86 0.00 +0.03 -1.04 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 8:36
5 Jeremy Lauzon D -1.43 0.00 0.00 -1.58 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 14:41

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.