Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 1–3 Final Montréal CanadiensMTL

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR	0	1	0	1	18
Montréal CanadiensMTL	2	0	1	3	33

Playoff odds, %	Change
MTL	+2.8
TOR	-0.0
OTT	-0.7
BOS	-0.6
DET	-0.5
NYI	-0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 10, 2026 6:10 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:46	MTL	Oliver Kapanen (20) Alex Newhook (9), Ivan Demidov (36) · snap xG 0.21	0–1 ▶
14:41	MTL	Phillip Danault (5) Kaiden Guhle (5), Lane Hutson (54) · snap xG 0.24	0–2 ▶
2nd Period
14:33	TOR	William Nylander (22) Easton Cowan (12) · snap xG 0.16	1–2 ▶
3rd Period
19:32	MTL	Jake Evans (10)EN Mike Matheson (27) · wrist xG 0.93	1–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TOR 16%Deserve to win84% MTL

TOR		MTL
1.87	Expected goals	5.52
1	Goals (no shootout)	3
1.46	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.65
48	Shot attempts	68
29	Unblocked attempts	52
18	Shots on goal	33

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:00	MTL	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TOR 1.35–0.09 In xG over 10 minutes, 2:00 to 12:00 of the 1st; goals 1–0
3rd Period
1:50	TOR	No shift	No shift · Quillan, 10:27 on the bench No shift from 9:40 of the 2nd to 2:11 of the 3rd; 9 shifts (4:44) before that
4:30	MTL	No shift	No shift · Caufield, 16:53 on the bench No shift from 14:23 of the 2nd to 11:17 of the 3rd; 13 shifts (8:03) before that
14:58	TOR	Goalie	Goalie · Woll +2.1 goals saved 2 goals on 4.08 xG, 29 shots on goal
17:31	TOR	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Woll, down 2–1 With 2:29 left; MTL scored at 19:32 of the 3rd (1–3)

Shot map

TOR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ MTL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Toronto Maple Leafs

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
34	Auston Matthews	0	0	0	0	4	0.36	3	1	22:28
91	John Tavares	0	0	0	-3	5	0.35	0	0	20:14
88	William Nylander	1	0	1	-2	4	0.23	0	0	20:03
89	Matthew Knies	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	0	19:04
53	Easton Cowan	0	1	1	0	4	0.04	0	1	18:21
11	Max Domi	0	0	0	0	3	0.00	2	0	14:37
29	Bo Groulx	0	0	0	0	4	0.23	6	0	14:13
63	Matias Maccelli	0	0	0	-2	2	0.22	0	0	13:46
14	Nick Robertson	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	0	0	12:47
18	Steven Lorentz	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	10:38
81	Dakota Joshua	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	1	08:56
26	Jacob Quillan	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	3	0	08:25
Defense
95	Oliver Ekman-Larsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	1	3	24:02
44	Morgan Rielly	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	19:10
22	Jake McCabe	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	2	1	19:03
25	Brandon Carlo	0	0	0	-1	4	0.04	2	2	19:00
44	Simon Benoit	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	1	0	16:28
28	Troy Stecher	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	0	4	16:21

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Joseph Woll	32	2	30	.938	4.20	+2.20

Montréal Canadiens

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
14	Nick Suzuki	0	0	0	-1	5	0.09	2	1	20:05
20	Juraj Slafkovský	0	0	0	-1	6	0.44	0	0	19:51
93	Ivan Demidov	0	1	1	+1	2	0.19	0	0	17:31
24	Phillip Danault	1	0	1	+2	2	0.24	0	1	15:12
91	Oliver Kapanen	1	0	1	+1	7	0.67	1	0	15:07
71	Jake Evans	1	0	1	+1	5	1.67	3	1	15:06
76	Zachary Bolduc	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	0	14:24
15	Alex Newhook	0	1	1	+1	2	0.01	1	0	14:20
17	Josh Anderson	0	0	0	+2	5	0.63	1	0	13:58
77	Kirby Dach	0	0	0	-1	2	0.23	3	0	11:36
7	Brendan Gallagher	0	0	0	+1	2	0.00	1	0	11:06
13	Cole Caufield	0	0	0	0	5	0.29	0	2	10:27
Defense
8	Mike Matheson	0	1	1	0	4	0.19	1	3	23:49
21	Kaiden Guhle	0	1	1	+2	2	0.11	2	2	22:26
48	Lane Hutson	0	1	1	+2	5	0.49	0	0	21:33
53	Noah Dobson	0	0	0	-1	3	0.06	0	4	19:13
45	Alexandre Carrier	0	0	0	+1	5	0.09	0	3	18:56
72	Arber Xhekaj	0	0	0	0	4	0.02	3	1	10:59

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Jakub Dobes	18	1	17	.944	1.87	+0.87

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
60 Joseph Woll G	+2.20	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+2.20	57:59
53 Easton Cowan R	+0.93	+0.70	+0.03	0.00	+0.15	0.00	+0.05	—	18:21
88 William Nylander R	+0.39	+0.75	+0.15	-0.49	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	20:03
34 Auston Matthews C	+0.10	0.00	+0.23	-0.26	0.00	+0.06	+0.07	—	22:28
89 Nick Robertson L	+0.06	0.00	+0.08	0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	12:47
29 Bo Groulx C	-0.07	0.00	+0.15	-0.19	0.00	-0.03	0.00	—	14:13
22 Jake McCabe D	-0.17	0.00	+0.10	-0.33	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	19:03
26 Jacob Quillan C	-0.42	0.00	+0.02	-0.53	+0.15	-0.06	0.00	—	8:25
63 Matias Maccelli L	-0.54	0.00	+0.15	-0.67	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	13:46
81 Dakota Joshua C	-0.54	0.00	+0.03	-0.63	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	8:56
18 Steven Lorentz C	-0.58	0.00	0.00	-0.61	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	10:38
2 Simon Benoit D	-0.65	0.00	+0.01	-0.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	16:28
28 Troy Stecher D	-0.73	0.00	0.00	-0.92	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	16:21
95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson D	-0.76	0.00	+0.02	-0.78	-0.15	0.00	+0.15	—	24:02
25 Brandon Carlo D	-0.82	0.00	+0.03	-0.93	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	19:00
11 Max Domi C	-1.04	0.00	0.00	-1.04	0.00	+0.02	-0.02	—	14:37
91 John Tavares C	-1.39	0.00	+0.23	-1.65	0.00	+0.03	0.00	—	20:14
44 Morgan Rielly D	-1.51	0.00	0.00	-1.50	0.00	0.00	-0.01	—	19:10
23 Matthew Knies L	-1.78	0.00	0.00	-1.61	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	19:04

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
48 Lane Hutson D	+2.87	+0.55	+0.32	+2.14	-0.15	0.00	0.00	—	21:33
71 Jake Evans C	+2.54	+0.75	+1.09	+0.56	0.00	+0.07	+0.07	—	15:06
91 Oliver Kapanen C	+2.07	+0.75	+0.44	+0.88	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:07
21 Kaiden Guhle D	+1.98	+0.70	+0.07	+1.11	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	22:26
24 Phillip Danault C	+1.76	+0.75	+0.16	+0.77	0.00	+0.04	+0.05	—	15:12
93 Ivan Demidov R	+1.67	+0.55	+0.12	+1.01	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	17:31
15 Alex Newhook C	+1.41	+0.70	+0.01	+0.60	+0.15	-0.04	0.00	—	14:20
17 Josh Anderson R	+1.41	0.00	+0.41	+0.98	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	13:58
8 Mike Matheson D	+1.18	+0.70	+0.12	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.13	—	23:49
11 Brendan Gallagher R	+1.09	0.00	0.00	+0.94	+0.15	0.00	0.00	—	11:06
20 Juraj Slafkovský L	+0.94	0.00	+0.29	+0.73	0.00	-0.01	-0.06	—	19:51
53 Noah Dobson D	+0.92	0.00	+0.04	+0.70	0.00	0.00	+0.18	—	19:13
75 Jakub Dobes G	+0.87	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.87	59:56
13 Cole Caufield R	+0.74	0.00	+0.19	+0.45	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	10:27
45 Alexandre Carrier D	+0.74	0.00	+0.06	+0.50	0.00	0.00	+0.17	—	18:56
76 Zachary Bolduc R	+0.51	0.00	+0.07	+0.46	0.00	0.00	-0.02	—	14:24
14 Nick Suzuki C	+0.42	0.00	+0.06	+0.34	0.00	-0.07	+0.09	—	20:05
72 Arber Xhekaj D	+0.27	0.00	+0.01	+0.38	-0.15	0.00	+0.03	—	10:59
77 Kirby Dach C	+0.17	0.00	+0.15	+0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	11:36

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.