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Florida PanthersFLA 4–0 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 211 4 23
Edmonton OilersEDM 000 0 21
Playoff odds, % Change
EDM -5.0
FLA +0.2
LAK +1.2
SEA +1.1
SJS +1.1
NSH +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 19, 2026 8:15 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
11:12 FLA Cole Reinhardt (4) Mike Benning (2) · wrist xG 0.17 1–0 ▶
19:02 FLA A.J. Greer (12) Mike Benning (3), Evan Rodrigues (18) · tip-in xG 0.11 2–0 ▶
2nd Period
14:21 FLA Anton Lundell (18)PP Sam Bennett (27), Evan Rodrigues (19) · snap xG 0.48 3–0 ▶
3rd Period
15:23 FLA Carter Verhaeghe (20) Matthew Tkachuk (14), Sam Bennett (28) · snap xG 0.13 4–0 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 56%Deserve to win44% EDM
FLAEDM
2.89Expected goals2.55
4Goals (no shootout)0
2.09Expected goals, 5 on 52.40
56Shot attempts46
40Unblocked attempts35
23Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
8:40 EDM No shift No shift · Frederic, 21:12 on the bench
No shift after 18:33 of the 2nd; 11 shifts (9:03) before that
11:49 FLA Goalie Goalie · Bobrovsky +2.3 goals saved
0 goals on 2.27 xG, 20 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots
Sam Bennett: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:39) Luke Kunin: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:58) Matthew Tkachuk: slap, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 2:08) Mattias Ekholm: backhand, 36 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:23) Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:30) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:10) Dmitry Kulikov: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:26) Kasperi Kapanen: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 4:36) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:49) Evan Bouchard: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:02) Matt Savoie: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:21) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 8:37) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 9:01) Trent Frederic: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 9:40) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:40) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 11:24) Sam Bennett: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:53) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 12:22) Evan Rodrigues: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:28) A.J. Greer: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 12:33) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 13:22) Matthew Tkachuk: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:33) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:44) Aaron Ekblad: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:49) Aaron Ekblad: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:54) Sam Bennett: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 15:11) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 16:04) Mattias Ekholm: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 17:55) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:05) Anton Lundell: snap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:29) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 2:25) Jake Walman: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:42) Matthew Tkachuk: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 3:02) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:27) Matt Savoie: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:28) Niko Mikkola: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:08) Matt Savoie: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:55) Jake Walman: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:08) Vasily Podkolzin: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 10:29) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:39) Carter Verhaeghe: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:05) Carter Verhaeghe: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 12:24) Jack Roslovic: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 13:26) Gustav Forsling: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:45) Anton Lundell: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:11) Sam Bennett: slap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 14:18) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:36) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:53) Kasperi Kapanen: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 18:55) Kasperi Kapanen: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:24) Jason Dickinson: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.20 (P3 0:11) Darnell Nurse: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:13) Dmitry Kulikov: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 1:40) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 1:45) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 3:44) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 4:55) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:47) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:42) Connor McDavid: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 7:54) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:55) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:26) Zach Hyman: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.38 (P3 11:49) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 11:54) Evan Bouchard: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:41) Niko Mikkola: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:30) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 14:42) Max Jones: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:37) Evan Rodrigues: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:56) Jesper Boqvist: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:08) A.J. Greer: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 18:17) Luke Kunin: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:50) Cole Reinhardt: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 11:12) A.J. Greer: GOAL, tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 19:02) Anton Lundell: GOAL, snap, 15 ft, xG 0.48 (P2 14:21) Carter Verhaeghe: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 15:23)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
17 Evan Rodrigues 022 +1 70.36 0017:44
23 Carter Verhaeghe 101 +1 70.58 0016:35
9 Sam Bennett 022 +1 50.25 1116:26
15 Anton Lundell 101 0 30.54 0016:25
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 00.00 1116:20
18 A.J. Greer 101 +1 30.41 2116:03
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 0 30.04 0015:46
19 Matthew Tkachuk 011 +1 40.18 1014:50
92 Tomas Nosek 000 +1 00.00 5112:53
11 Mackie Samoskevich 000 +1 20.08 2112:10
29 Cole Reinhardt 101 +1 20.21 1011:41
71 Luke Kunin 000 +1 40.08 3011:24
Defense
3 Seth Jones 000 0 20.00 1124:34
77 Niko Mikkola 000 0 60.04 2122:31
42 Gustav Forsling 000 +1 10.05 0120:33
5 Aaron Ekblad 000 +1 20.04 0018:13
7 Dmitry Kulikov 000 +2 30.03 1116:09
20 Mike Benning 022 +2 20.00 1015:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 21021 1.000 2.55 +2.55

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 000 -1 20.08 0021:29
22 Matt Savoie 000 -1 70.50 0018:05
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 -1 50.31 0017:37
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 0 30.29 2017:23
18 Zach Hyman 000 -2 30.43 1016:48
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 -1 50.17 1115:33
96 Jack Roslovic 000 -1 30.09 1015:16
16 Jason Dickinson 000 -2 10.20 1014:40
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 00.00 2112:30
46 Max Jones 000 0 10.06 8111:24
81 Josh Samanski 000 0 00.00 1010:57
10 Trent Frederic 000 0 10.15 2009:03
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 000 -2 50.06 1027:07
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 -1 50.08 3021:06
5 Connor Murphy 000 -1 10.00 2319:41
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -1 20.05 1319:16
96 Jake Walman 000 -1 20.06 0116:10
24 Spencer Stastney 000 0 00.00 0413:23
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Ingram 23419 .826 2.89 -1.11

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G +2.55 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.55 60:00
17 Evan Rodrigues C +2.26 +1.10 +0.24 +0.92 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 17:44
20 Mike Benning D +2.16 +1.40 0.00 +0.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:43
10 A.J. Greer L +1.85 +0.75 +0.26 +0.61 +0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 16:03
23 Carter Verhaeghe C +1.56 +0.75 +0.37 +0.47 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 16:35
9 Sam Bennett C +1.34 +1.25 +0.16 +0.04 -0.15 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:26
15 Anton Lundell C +1.09 +0.75 +0.35 +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:25
7 Dmitry Kulikov D +1.02 0.00 +0.02 +0.99 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:09
29 Cole Reinhardt L +0.95 +0.75 +0.14 +0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:41
19 Matthew Tkachuk L +0.68 +0.70 +0.12 +0.04 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:50
11 Mackie Samoskevich R +0.61 0.00 +0.05 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:10
71 Luke Kunin C +0.09 0.00 +0.05 +0.07 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 11:24
5 Aaron Ekblad D -0.08 0.00 +0.02 -0.08 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:13
77 Niko Mikkola D -0.09 0.00 +0.03 -0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 22:31
42 Gustav Forsling D -0.48 0.00 +0.03 -0.56 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:33
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.71 0.00 +0.03 -0.67 0.00 -0.01 -0.06 — 15:46
92 Tomas Nosek L -0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:53
3 Seth Jones D -0.76 0.00 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 24:34
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.98 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:20

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
14 Mattias Ekholm D +1.14 0.00 +0.05 +1.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:06
2 Evan Bouchard D +0.83 0.00 +0.04 +0.70 +0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 27:07
18 Zach Hyman L +0.83 0.00 +0.28 +0.59 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 16:48
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C +0.68 0.00 +0.11 +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:33
97 Connor McDavid C +0.53 0.00 +0.06 +0.32 +0.15 +0.03 -0.02 — 21:29
25 Darnell Nurse D +0.34 0.00 +0.03 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 19:16
10 Trent Frederic C +0.10 0.00 +0.10 +0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 9:03
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.09 0.00 +0.06 +0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 15:16
46 Max Jones L +0.08 0.00 +0.04 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 11:24
5 Connor Murphy D +0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 19:41
92 Vasily Podkolzin R -0.01 0.00 +0.19 -0.02 -0.15 +0.01 -0.04 — 17:23
22 Matt Savoie C -0.04 0.00 +0.33 -0.40 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 18:05
42 Kasperi Kapanen R -0.09 0.00 +0.20 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:37
19 Adam Henrique C -0.18 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 -0.01 +0.07 — 12:30
81 Josh Samanski C -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:57
16 Jason Dickinson C -0.44 0.00 +0.13 -0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:40
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.89 -0.15 0.00 +0.18 — 13:23
96 Jake Walman D -1.08 0.00 +0.04 -1.15 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:10
39 Connor Ingram G -1.11 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.11 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.