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Tampa Bay LightningTBL 5–2 Final Edmonton OilersEDM

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 032 5 28
Edmonton OilersEDM 101 2 27
Playoff odds, % Change
EDM -4.4
TBL +0.4
LAK +1.1
SEA +0.9
NSH +0.9
SJS +0.7

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 21, 2026 9:28 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
19:37 EDM Connor McDavid (38) Evan Bouchard (60) · tip-in xG 0.06 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
1:37 TBL Anthony Cirelli (18) Nikita Kucherov (77), Brandon Hagel (34) · backhand xG 0.26 1–1 ▶
12:13 TBL Jake Guentzel (31)PP Nikita Kucherov (78), Brayden Point (29) · wrist xG 0.15 2–1 ▶
16:58 TBL Nikita Kucherov (39)SH J.J. Moser (19) · wrist xG 0.20 3–1 ▶
3rd Period
7:16 EDM Josh Samanski (1) Unassisted · xG 0.06 3–2 ▶
15:32 TBL Nikita Kucherov (40) Brandon Hagel (35) · snap xG 0.23 4–2 ▶
19:28 TBL Anthony Cirelli (19)SHEN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.36 5–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

TBL 62%Deserve to win38% EDM
TBLEDM
3.62Expected goals2.56
5Goals (no shootout)2
2.46Expected goals, 5 on 51.71
62Shot attempts52
45Unblocked attempts38
28Shots on goal27

Shot map

TBL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ EDM shoots
Jack Roslovic: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:31) Vasily Podkolzin: backhand, 166 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:14) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:07) Corey Perry: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:11) Jake Walman: wrist, 63 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:36) Connor McDavid: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 4:00) Gage Goncalves: wrist, 73 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 4:07) Nikita Kucherov: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:44) Anthony Cirelli: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:47) Darren Raddysh: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:17) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:21) Darnell Nurse: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:29) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:29) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 8:42) Jake Walman: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:07) Jake Walman: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:50) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:08) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:46) Yanni Gourde: backhand, 27 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:58) Matt Savoie: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:45) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:04) Roby Jarventie: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:33) Ty Emberson: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:41) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:24) Darren Raddysh: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:06) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:43) Nikita Kucherov: poke, 12 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 17:28) Oliver Bjorkstrand: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:23) Darren Raddysh: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:16) Anthony Cirelli: backhand, 15 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 1:20) Brandon Hagel: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 1:33) Anthony Cirelli: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 1:35) Yanni Gourde: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:14) Adam Henrique: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:58) Darnell Nurse: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:44) Jason Dickinson: deflected, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 5:06) Jason Dickinson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 5:08) Darnell Nurse: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 5:14) Anthony Cirelli: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:26) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 6:26) Brandon Hagel: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 7:29) Oliver Bjorkstrand: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 11:19) Oliver Bjorkstrand: slap, 27 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 12:03) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:49) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 14:44) Erik Cernak: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 15:26) Connor McDavid: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:50) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 16:04) Evan Bouchard: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 16:07) Connor McDavid: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 16:13) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 18 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:37) Adam Henrique: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 17:55) Vasily Podkolzin: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:16) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:23) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:46) Nick Paul: tip-in, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:52) Jake Guentzel: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:53) Evan Bouchard: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:20) Zemgus Girgensons: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:22) Corey Perry: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:21) Jack Roslovic: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 6:45) Darren Raddysh: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:40) Kasperi Kapanen: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 8:19) Kasperi Kapanen: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:26) Mattias Ekholm: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:12) Darren Raddysh: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:35) Brayden Point: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 9:44) Jake Walman: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:00) Emil Lilleberg: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:32) Charle-Edouard D'Astous: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:37) Pontus Holmberg: poke, 3 ft, xG 0.39 (P3 10:58) Jake Guentzel: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:15) Jason Dickinson: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 14:20) Nikita Kucherov: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 17:23) Connor McDavid: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 18:44) Evan Bouchard: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:56) Connor McDavid: GOAL, tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 19:37) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.26 (P2 1:37) Jake Guentzel: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:13) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 16:58) Josh Samanski: GOAL, shot, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:16) Nikita Kucherov: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 15:32) Anthony Cirelli: GOAL, wrist, 137 ft, xG 0.36 (P3 19:28)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Tampa Bay Lightning

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
38 Brandon Hagel 022 +3 30.23 0120:47
86 Nikita Kucherov 224 +3 110.76 0019:53
59 Jake Guentzel 101 -1 80.34 0019:22
21 Brayden Point 011 -1 30.05 0117:54
37 Yanni Gourde 000 0 20.06 0015:16
93 Gage Goncalves 000 -1 20.00 0214:13
28 Zemgus Girgensons 000 0 10.05 2314:09
20 Nick Paul 000 0 20.05 2114:01
29 Pontus Holmberg 000 0 20.39 1011:00
71 Anthony Cirelli 202 +2 61.16 0010:28
28 Oliver Bjorkstrand 000 -1 40.26 1110:10
90 Corey Perry 000 0 20.09 0009:59
Defense
43 Darren Raddysh 000 +1 60.12 0126:00
90 J.J. Moser 011 +3 20.00 0022:42
27 Ryan McDonagh 000 +2 20.00 0222:01
81 Erik Cernak 000 +1 10.00 3020:14
78 Emil Lilleberg 000 -1 10.01 1013:02
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous 000 -2 40.06 1111:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy 27226 .963 2.56 +0.56

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
97 Connor McDavid 101 -3 60.52 0222:42
18 Zach Hyman 000 -3 10.02 0020:28
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 -3 20.16 0019:56
42 Kasperi Kapanen 000 0 20.08 3017:37
16 Jason Dickinson 000 0 30.42 3215:44
22 Matt Savoie 000 -1 20.08 0015:27
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 0 20.02 4014:08
96 Jack Roslovic 000 +1 50.19 1112:43
81 Josh Samanski 101 +1 20.06 0110:05
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 20.15 0109:29
46 Max Jones 000 0 00.00 5009:27
15 Roby Jarventie 000 0 20.02 1208:30
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 011 -3 90.50 0027:37
14 Mattias Ekholm 000 -2 40.09 2323:49
25 Darnell Nurse 000 0 30.12 8120:26
5 Connor Murphy 000 0 00.00 0317:23
96 Jake Walman 000 +1 40.13 0015:19
49 Ty Emberson 000 +1 30.01 1013:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Connor Ingram 27423 .852 3.26 -0.74

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
86 Nikita Kucherov R +4.52 +2.90 +0.49 +1.34 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 19:53
38 Brandon Hagel L +3.27 +1.25 +0.15 +1.80 +0.04 -0.02 +0.05 — 20:47
71 Anthony Cirelli C +3.15 +1.50 +0.75 +0.80 +0.11 -0.03 +0.02 — 10:28
90 J.J. Moser D +1.64 +0.70 0.00 +0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:42
43 Darren Raddysh D +1.53 0.00 +0.08 +1.42 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 26:00
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G +0.56 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.56 60:00
29 Pontus Holmberg R +0.53 0.00 +0.25 +0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:00
21 Brayden Point C +0.52 +0.55 +0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 17:54
59 Jake Guentzel C +0.50 +0.75 +0.22 -0.46 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 19:22
20 Nick Paul L +0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 0.00 +0.02 +0.07 — 14:01
10 Corey Perry R +0.09 0.00 +0.06 -0.10 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 9:59
27 Ryan McDonagh D +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:01
37 Yanni Gourde C +0.01 0.00 +0.04 +0.09 -0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 15:16
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D -0.04 0.00 +0.04 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 11:58
93 Gage Goncalves C -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.24 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:13
28 Zemgus Girgensons C -0.19 0.00 +0.03 -0.48 +0.15 0.00 +0.11 — 14:09
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R -0.22 0.00 +0.17 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:10
81 Erik Cernak D -0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 20:14
78 Emil Lilleberg D -0.44 0.00 +0.01 -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:02

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
81 Josh Samanski C +0.98 +0.75 +0.04 +0.18 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 10:05
16 Jason Dickinson C +0.66 0.00 +0.27 +0.11 +0.15 +0.02 +0.10 — 15:44
96 Jake Walman D +0.58 0.00 +0.09 +0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:19
5 Connor Murphy D +0.52 0.00 0.00 +0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 17:23
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.49 0.00 +0.12 +0.40 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 12:43
92 Vasily Podkolzin R +0.43 0.00 +0.01 +0.37 +0.04 0.00 0.00 — 14:08
19 Adam Henrique C +0.31 0.00 +0.10 +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 9:29
42 Kasperi Kapanen R +0.22 0.00 +0.05 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:37
49 Ty Emberson D +0.09 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 13:18
15 Roby Jarventie L +0.08 0.00 +0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 8:30
25 Darnell Nurse D +0.06 0.00 +0.08 0.00 -0.04 0.00 +0.03 — 20:26
46 Max Jones L +0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.19 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 9:27
22 Matt Savoie C -0.10 0.00 +0.05 -0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:27
97 Connor McDavid C -0.27 +0.75 +0.34 -1.38 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 22:42
2 Evan Bouchard D -0.49 +0.70 +0.33 -1.48 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 27:37
39 Connor Ingram G -0.74 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.74 58:42
14 Mattias Ekholm D -0.98 0.00 +0.06 -1.19 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 23:49
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -1.10 0.00 +0.10 -1.22 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 19:56
18 Zach Hyman L -1.25 0.00 +0.01 -1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 20:28

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.