Florida PanthersFLA 4–9 Final Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

Saturday, April 4, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Florida PanthersFLA 202 4 23
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 261 9 31
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT +2.3
FLA +0.0
PHI -0.7
OTT -0.5
WSH -0.4
CBJ -0.4

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Apr 4, 2026 4:13 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
0:20 PIT Noel Acciari (12) Elmer Soderblom (5), Erik Karlsson (48) · backhand xG 0.27 0–1 ▶
5:06 PIT Erik Karlsson (14)PP Sidney Crosby (40), Egor Chinakhov (17) · slap xG 0.07 0–2 ▶
7:10 FLA A.J. Greer (15) Cole Reinhardt (5), Gustav Forsling (24) · wrist xG 0.37 1–2 ▶
14:31 FLA Seth Jones (7) Cole Schwindt (2) · slap xG 0.02 2–2 ▶
2nd Period
1:51 PIT Anthony Mantha (31) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.02 2–3 ▶
5:51 PIT Evgeni Malkin (16)PP Erik Karlsson (49), Sidney Crosby (41) · tip-in xG 0.07 2–4 ▶
8:27 PIT Evgeni Malkin (17) Tommy Novak (24), Rickard Rakell (24) · tip-in xG 0.34 2–5 ▶
9:53 PIT Elmer Soderblom (5) Connor Dewar (16) · tip-in xG 0.12 2–6 ▶
17:48 PIT Rickard Rakell (22)PP Evgeni Malkin (39), Erik Karlsson (50) · backhand xG 0.10 2–7 ▶
18:07 PIT Ryan Shea (6) Samuel Girard (15), Anthony Mantha (30) · wrist xG 0.06 2–8 ▶
3rd Period
3:30 PIT Evgeni Malkin (18) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.34 2–9 ▶
8:02 FLA Noah Gregor (4) Sam Bennett (32), Matthew Tkachuk (19) · backhand xG 0.19 3–9 ▶
10:46 FLA Mackie Samoskevich (10) A.J. Greer (13) · snap xG 0.09 4–9 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

FLA 16%Deserve to win84% PIT
FLAPIT
1.72Expected goals3.91
4Goals (no shootout)9
1.71Expected goals, 5 on 53.20
41Shot attempts63
29Unblocked attempts44
23Shots on goal31

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
5:50 PIT xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.48–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:50 to 10:50 of the 2nd; goals 4–0
5:51 FLA Goalie Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.1 goals saved
4 goals on 1.93 xG, 17 shots on goal
9:53 FLA Goalie change Goalie change · Tarasov in for Bobrovsky
9:53 of the 2nd; Bobrovsky had allowed 6 goals on 19 shots (2.43 xG)
3rd Period
10:46 PIT Goalie Goalie · Silovs −2.5 goals saved
4 goals on 1.52 xG, 19 shots on goal

Shot map

FLA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ PIT shoots
Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 0:07) Noel Acciari: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 0:17) Rickard Rakell: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 1:08) Gustav Forsling: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:50) Kris Letang: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:33) Tommy Novak: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 6:28) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:07) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:58) Connor Clifton: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 10:58) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:13) Justin Brazeau: deflected, 18 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:36) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:41) Mackie Samoskevich: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:02) Tommy Novak: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 13:58) Eetu Luostarinen: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:48) Connor Dewar: wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 17:44) Samuel Girard: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 19:54) Bryan Rust: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:48) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:02) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 1:09) Tommy Novak: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:43) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:45) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 4:05) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 5:20) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:28) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 5:30) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:25) Bryan Rust: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:46) Gustav Forsling: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:28) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:30) Mike Benning: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 11:36) Evgeni Malkin: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 11:59) Donovan Sebrango: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:33) Elmer Soderblom: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 12:52) Noah Gregor: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:39) Cole Reinhardt: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 14:57) A.J. Greer: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:10) A.J. Greer: slap, 53 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:15) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 15:33) Sam Bennett: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:50) Rickard Rakell: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 17:27) Samuel Girard: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:48) Kris Letang: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:25) Parker Wotherspoon: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:29) Evgeni Malkin: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:22) Carter Verhaeghe: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:38) Donovan Sebrango: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:34) Noah Gregor: backhand, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:15) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 5:57) Mackie Samoskevich: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:20) Noel Acciari: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:57) Mike Benning: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:15) Elmer Soderblom: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 11:29) Gustav Forsling: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:48) Luke Kunin: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:51) Cole Schwindt: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:58) Samuel Girard: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:49) Noel Acciari: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 15:08) A.J. Greer: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:59) Donovan Sebrango: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:08) Noel Acciari: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.27 (P1 0:20) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, slap, 44 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 5:06) A.J. Greer: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.37 (P1 7:10) Seth Jones: GOAL, slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:31) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:51) Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 5:51) Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, tip-in, 4 ft, xG 0.34 (P2 8:27) Elmer Soderblom: GOAL, tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:53) Rickard Rakell: GOAL, backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 17:48) Ryan Shea: GOAL, wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 18:07) Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 3:30) Noah Gregor: GOAL, backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 8:02) Mackie Samoskevich: GOAL, snap, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 10:46)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Florida Panthers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 A.J. Greer 112 0 50.57 1117:04
27 Eetu Luostarinen 000 0 10.10 2116:21
92 Tomas Nosek 000 -2 20.00 1116:19
19 Matthew Tkachuk 011 -1 10.00 4015:41
9 Sam Bennett 011 -1 10.01 0114:53
23 Carter Verhaeghe 000 -2 20.08 0014:52
70 Jesper Boqvist 000 -2 10.00 0014:39
11 Mackie Samoskevich 101 -1 50.28 2014:05
73 Noah Gregor 101 -1 30.34 0113:28
29 Cole Reinhardt 011 +2 30.09 1013:19
71 Luke Kunin 000 +1 30.01 2112:38
79 Cole Schwindt 011 +1 10.00 2012:22
Defense
3 Seth Jones 101 0 10.02 0222:43
73 Donovan Sebrango 000 0 50.12 1122:42
42 Gustav Forsling 011 0 30.06 0121:17
20 Mike Benning 000 -2 40.04 0218:09
96 Mikulas Hovorka 000 0 00.00 3017:55
22 Tobias Bjornfot 000 -2 00.00 0217:20
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky 19613 .684 2.43 -3.57
Daniil Tarasov 1239 .750 1.48 -1.52

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
71 Evgeni Malkin 314 0 91.16 0018:52
87 Sidney Crosby 022 0 00.00 0117:32
67 Rickard Rakell 112 -1 90.75 0017:19
59 Egor Chinakhov 011 0 20.12 0017:10
18 Tommy Novak 011 -1 40.37 0017:09
17 Bryan Rust 000 0 20.11 0015:16
39 Anthony Mantha 112 +2 10.02 1015:12
19 Connor Dewar 011 +2 10.07 0014:22
52 Noel Acciari 101 +1 50.39 0114:09
25 Elmer Soderblom 112 +1 50.43 2013:18
81 Ben Kindel 000 +1 10.00 0112:10
16 Justin Brazeau 000 +1 20.08 3011:37
Defense
58 Kris Letang 000 +1 20.04 0320:37
65 Erik Karlsson 134 +2 50.09 0120:30
6 Ryan Shea 101 -1 30.06 0219:24
29 Parker Wotherspoon 000 +2 20.01 2118:44
49 Samuel Girard 011 +2 40.07 0018:41
75 Connor Clifton 000 -2 60.12 2117:58
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 23419 .826 1.72 -2.28

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Florida Panthers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
10 A.J. Greer L +1.45 +1.45 +0.37 -0.39 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 17:04
29 Cole Reinhardt L +1.21 +0.70 +0.06 +0.47 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:19
42 Gustav Forsling D +0.87 +0.55 +0.04 +0.28 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:17
18 Noah Gregor L +0.67 +0.75 +0.22 -0.36 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:28
79 Cole Schwindt R +0.57 +0.70 0.00 -0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:22
9 Sam Bennett C +0.15 +0.70 0.00 -0.54 0.00 -0.06 +0.05 — 14:53
71 Luke Kunin C 0.00 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:38
3 Seth Jones D -0.01 +0.75 +0.01 -0.83 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 22:43
11 Mackie Samoskevich R -0.04 +0.75 +0.18 -0.93 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:05
19 Matthew Tkachuk L -0.18 +0.55 0.00 -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:41
27 Eetu Luostarinen C -0.42 0.00 +0.06 -0.39 -0.15 +0.03 +0.03 — 16:21
96 Mikulas Hovorka D -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:55
20 Mike Benning D -0.68 0.00 +0.03 -0.60 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 18:09
70 Jesper Boqvist C -0.81 0.00 0.00 -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:39
6 Donovan Sebrango D -0.86 0.00 +0.08 -0.81 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 22:42
92 Tomas Nosek L -0.86 0.00 0.00 -0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 16:19
23 Carter Verhaeghe C -1.09 0.00 +0.05 -1.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 — 14:52
22 Tobias Bjornfot D -1.31 0.00 0.00 -1.39 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:20
40 Daniil Tarasov G -1.52 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.52 30:07
72 Sergei Bobrovsky G -3.57 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.57 29:53

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
71 Evgeni Malkin C +4.88 +2.95 +0.75 +1.16 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:52
65 Erik Karlsson D +3.74 +2.55 +0.06 +1.16 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 20:30
67 Rickard Rakell R +2.68 +1.30 +0.49 +0.94 0.00 -0.05 0.00 — 17:19
25 Elmer Soderblom L +2.44 +1.45 +0.28 +0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:18
19 Connor Dewar C +2.09 +0.70 +0.04 +1.17 +0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 14:22
18 Tommy Novak C +2.05 +0.70 +0.24 +1.06 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 17:09
55 Noel Acciari C +1.85 +0.75 +0.25 +0.73 0.00 +0.07 +0.05 — 14:09
49 Samuel Girard D +1.85 +0.70 +0.05 +1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:41
39 Anthony Mantha R +1.56 +1.30 +0.01 +0.28 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:12
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +1.21 0.00 +0.01 +1.17 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:44
87 Sidney Crosby C +1.19 +1.25 0.00 -0.14 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 17:32
58 Kris Letang D +1.05 0.00 +0.03 +0.87 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 20:37
5 Ryan Shea D +0.77 +0.75 +0.04 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:24
59 Egor Chinakhov R +0.56 +0.55 +0.08 -0.20 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:10
16 Justin Brazeau R +0.16 0.00 +0.05 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:37
17 Bryan Rust R +0.06 0.00 +0.07 -0.12 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 15:16
81 Ben Kindel C +0.03 0.00 0.00 +0.06 0.00 -0.04 +0.01 — 12:10
75 Connor Clifton D -0.22 0.00 +0.08 -0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:58
37 Arturs Silovs G -2.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.28 60:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.