| Final | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 23 | |
| 2 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 31 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 0:20 | Noel Acciari (12) Elmer Soderblom (5), Erik Karlsson (48) · backhand xG 0.27 | 0–1 ▶ | |
| 5:06 | Erik Karlsson (14)PP Sidney Crosby (40), Egor Chinakhov (17) · slap xG 0.07 | 0–2 ▶ | |
| 7:10 | A.J. Greer (15) Cole Reinhardt (5), Gustav Forsling (24) · wrist xG 0.37 | 1–2 ▶ | |
| 14:31 | Seth Jones (7) Cole Schwindt (2) · slap xG 0.02 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 1:51 | Anthony Mantha (31) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.02 | 2–3 ▶ | |
| 5:51 | Evgeni Malkin (16)PP Erik Karlsson (49), Sidney Crosby (41) · tip-in xG 0.07 | 2–4 ▶ | |
| 8:27 | Evgeni Malkin (17) Tommy Novak (24), Rickard Rakell (24) · tip-in xG 0.34 | 2–5 ▶ | |
| 9:53 | Elmer Soderblom (5) Connor Dewar (16) · tip-in xG 0.12 | 2–6 ▶ | |
| 17:48 | Rickard Rakell (22)PP Evgeni Malkin (39), Erik Karlsson (50) · backhand xG 0.10 | 2–7 ▶ | |
| 18:07 | Ryan Shea (6) Samuel Girard (15), Anthony Mantha (30) · wrist xG 0.06 | 2–8 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 3:30 | Evgeni Malkin (18) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.34 | 2–9 ▶ | |
| 8:02 | Noah Gregor (4) Sam Bennett (32), Matthew Tkachuk (19) · backhand xG 0.19 | 3–9 ▶ | |
| 10:46 | Mackie Samoskevich (10) A.J. Greer (13) · snap xG 0.09 | 4–9 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| FLA | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | Expected goals | 3.91 |
| 4 | Goals (no shootout) | 9 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 3.20 |
| 41 | Shot attempts | 63 |
| 29 | Unblocked attempts | 44 |
| 23 | Shots on goal | 31 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 2nd Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 5:50 | PIT | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced FLA 1.48–0.00
In xG over 10 minutes, 0:50 to 10:50 of the 2nd; goals 4–0 |
| 5:51 | FLA | Goalie | Goalie · Bobrovsky −2.1 goals saved
4 goals on 1.93 xG, 17 shots on goal |
| 9:53 | FLA | Goalie change | Goalie change · Tarasov in for Bobrovsky
9:53 of the 2nd; Bobrovsky had allowed 6 goals on 19 shots (2.43 xG) |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 10:46 | PIT | Goalie | Goalie · Silovs −2.5 goals saved
4 goals on 1.52 xG, 19 shots on goal |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 18 | A.J. Greer | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0.57 | 1 | 1 | 17:04 |
| 27 | Eetu Luostarinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 2 | 1 | 16:21 |
| 92 | Tomas Nosek | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 16:19 |
| 19 | Matthew Tkachuk | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 | 15:41 |
| 9 | Sam Bennett | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0 | 1 | 14:53 |
| 23 | Carter Verhaeghe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 |
| 70 | Jesper Boqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 |
| 11 | Mackie Samoskevich | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0.28 | 2 | 0 | 14:05 |
| 73 | Noah Gregor | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 1 | 13:28 |
| 29 | Cole Reinhardt | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 0.09 | 1 | 0 | 13:19 |
| 71 | Luke Kunin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.01 | 2 | 1 | 12:38 |
| 79 | Cole Schwindt | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 0 | 12:22 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 3 | Seth Jones | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.02 | 0 | 2 | 22:43 |
| 73 | Donovan Sebrango | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.12 | 1 | 1 | 22:42 |
| 42 | Gustav Forsling | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 1 | 21:17 |
| 20 | Mike Benning | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0 | 2 | 18:09 |
| 96 | Mikulas Hovorka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 17:55 |
| 22 | Tobias Bjornfot | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 17:20 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 19 | 6 | 13 | .684 | 2.43 | -3.57 |
| Daniil Tarasov | 12 | 3 | 9 | .750 | 1.48 | -1.52 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 71 | Evgeni Malkin | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 1.16 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 |
| 87 | Sidney Crosby | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 17:32 |
| 67 | Rickard Rakell | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 9 | 0.75 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 |
| 59 | Egor Chinakhov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 |
| 18 | Tommy Novak | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 | 17:09 |
| 17 | Bryan Rust | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
| 39 | Anthony Mantha | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 0.02 | 1 | 0 | 15:12 |
| 19 | Connor Dewar | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 |
| 52 | Noel Acciari | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 1 | 14:09 |
| 25 | Elmer Soderblom | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 0.43 | 2 | 0 | 13:18 |
| 81 | Ben Kindel | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0 | 1 | 12:10 |
| 16 | Justin Brazeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.08 | 3 | 0 | 11:37 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 58 | Kris Letang | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0 | 3 | 20:37 |
| 65 | Erik Karlsson | 1 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 5 | 0.09 | 0 | 1 | 20:30 |
| 6 | Ryan Shea | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0 | 2 | 19:24 |
| 29 | Parker Wotherspoon | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 0.01 | 2 | 1 | 18:44 |
| 49 | Samuel Girard | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 |
| 75 | Connor Clifton | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 0.12 | 2 | 1 | 17:58 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs | 23 | 4 | 19 | .826 | 1.72 | -2.28 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 A.J. Greer L | +1.45 | +1.45 | +0.37 | -0.39 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 17:04 |
| 29 Cole Reinhardt L | +1.21 | +0.70 | +0.06 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:19 |
| 42 Gustav Forsling D | +0.87 | +0.55 | +0.04 | +0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 21:17 |
| 18 Noah Gregor L | +0.67 | +0.75 | +0.22 | -0.36 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | — | 13:28 |
| 79 Cole Schwindt R | +0.57 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 12:22 |
| 9 Sam Bennett C | +0.15 | +0.70 | 0.00 | -0.54 | 0.00 | -0.06 | +0.05 | — | 14:53 |
| 71 Luke Kunin C | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:38 |
| 3 Seth Jones D | -0.01 | +0.75 | +0.01 | -0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 22:43 |
| 11 Mackie Samoskevich R | -0.04 | +0.75 | +0.18 | -0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 14:05 |
| 19 Matthew Tkachuk L | -0.18 | +0.55 | 0.00 | -0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 15:41 |
| 27 Eetu Luostarinen C | -0.42 | 0.00 | +0.06 | -0.39 | -0.15 | +0.03 | +0.03 | — | 16:21 |
| 96 Mikulas Hovorka D | -0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:55 |
| 20 Mike Benning D | -0.68 | 0.00 | +0.03 | -0.60 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 18:09 |
| 70 Jesper Boqvist C | -0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 14:39 |
| 6 Donovan Sebrango D | -0.86 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.81 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 22:42 |
| 92 Tomas Nosek L | -0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.01 | — | 16:19 |
| 23 Carter Verhaeghe C | -1.09 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -1.11 | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | — | 14:52 |
| 22 Tobias Bjornfot D | -1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 17:20 |
| 40 Daniil Tarasov G | -1.52 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -1.52 | 30:07 |
| 72 Sergei Bobrovsky G | -3.57 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -3.57 | 29:53 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71 Evgeni Malkin C | +4.88 | +2.95 | +0.75 | +1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 18:52 |
| 65 Erik Karlsson D | +3.74 | +2.55 | +0.06 | +1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | — | 20:30 |
| 67 Rickard Rakell R | +2.68 | +1.30 | +0.49 | +0.94 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.00 | — | 17:19 |
| 25 Elmer Soderblom L | +2.44 | +1.45 | +0.28 | +0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:18 |
| 19 Connor Dewar C | +2.09 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +1.17 | +0.15 | +0.03 | 0.00 | — | 14:22 |
| 18 Tommy Novak C | +2.05 | +0.70 | +0.24 | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | — | 17:09 |
| 55 Noel Acciari C | +1.85 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.73 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.05 | — | 14:09 |
| 49 Samuel Girard D | +1.85 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 18:41 |
| 39 Anthony Mantha R | +1.56 | +1.30 | +0.01 | +0.28 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | — | 15:12 |
| 28 Parker Wotherspoon D | +1.21 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 18:44 |
| 87 Sidney Crosby C | +1.19 | +1.25 | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.05 | — | 17:32 |
| 58 Kris Letang D | +1.05 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.15 | — | 20:37 |
| 5 Ryan Shea D | +0.77 | +0.75 | +0.04 | -0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 19:24 |
| 59 Egor Chinakhov R | +0.56 | +0.55 | +0.08 | -0.20 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 17:10 |
| 16 Justin Brazeau R | +0.16 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:37 |
| 17 Bryan Rust R | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.12 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 15:16 |
| 81 Ben Kindel C | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.04 | +0.01 | — | 12:10 |
| 75 Connor Clifton D | -0.22 | 0.00 | +0.08 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 17:58 |
| 37 Arturs Silovs G | -2.28 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | -2.28 | 60:00 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.