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Colorado AvalancheCOL 4–2 Final Utah MammothUTA

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 040 4 26
Utah MammothUTA 020 2 30
Playoff odds, % Change
UTA -4.2
COL +0.0
LAK +0.9
SEA +0.6
SJS +0.6
EDM +0.6
ANA +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 23, 2026 9:51 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
3:26 COL Parker Kelly (13) Brent Burns (18), Josh Manson (20) · snap xG 0.13 1–0 ▶
9:13 COL Victor Olofsson (11) Sam Malinski (23), Parker Kelly (10) · snap xG 0.22 2–0 ▶
10:49 UTA Dylan Guenther (26)PP Mikhail Sergachev (30), Clayton Keller (38) · slap xG 0.03 2–1 ▶
12:20 COL Brock Nelson (30) Gabriel Landeskog (16), Martin Necas (41) · slap xG 0.15 3–1 ▶
13:20 UTA Dylan Guenther (27) Jack McBain (14), Logan Cooley (10) · slap xG 0.16 3–2 ▶
17:17 COL Martin Necas (23)PP Cale Makar (43), Valeri Nichushkin (23) · slap xG 0.06 4–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 51%Deserve to win49% UTA
COLUTA
3.13Expected goals3.09
4Goals (no shootout)2
2.72Expected goals, 5 on 51.88
57Shot attempts66
39Unblocked attempts47
26Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:56 UTA Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Vejmelka, down 4–2
With 2:04 left

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ UTA shoots
Josh Manson: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 0:57) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:03) Brent Burns: snap, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:13) Jack Drury: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:42) Ross Colton: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:06) Kailer Yamamoto: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:36) Brandon Tanev: tip-in, 12 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 6:32) Ian Cole: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 6:36) Mikhail Sergachev: backhand, 170 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 7:22) Kevin Stenlund: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 8:08) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:23) Gabriel Landeskog: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.28 (P1 8:25) Martin Necas: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:26) Barrett Hayton: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:48) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 9:50) Joel Kiviranta: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:22) Kevin Stenlund: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 10:50) Brock Nelson: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:02) Martin Necas: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 11:04) Josh Manson: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:10) Brent Burns: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:35) Nick DeSimone: wrist, 141 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 13:43) Brandon Tanev: backhand, 31 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:52) Clayton Keller: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:41) Brock Nelson: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.13 (P1 18:18) Clayton Keller: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:49) Dylan Guenther: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:43) Clayton Keller: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 19:54) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:35) Joel Kiviranta: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:18) Cale Makar: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 2:23) Lawson Crouse: snap, 18 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 2:32) Jack Drury: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:45) Jack Drury: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 2:48) Josh Manson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.40 (P2 3:34) Brent Burns: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:50) Victor Olofsson: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:00) Nate Schmidt: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 4:22) Devon Toews: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:03) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:32) Barrett Hayton: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 6:11) Brent Burns: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:12) Clayton Keller: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 7:59) Sean Durzi: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:23) Barrett Hayton: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 9:44) Nick Schmaltz: slap, 25 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 9:53) Dylan Guenther: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 10:31) Sam Malinski: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:25) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.24 (P2 11:37) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 33 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:58) Lawson Crouse: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 15:05) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:33) Ross Colton: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 15:51) Cale Makar: snap, 56 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:37) Ross Colton: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 18:26) Ian Cole: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 19:17) Clayton Keller: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 1:00) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 1:09) Clayton Keller: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 1:20) Sean Durzi: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:17) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:18) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 2:19) Nate Schmidt: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:31) Devon Toews: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 3:41) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 4:10) Ian Cole: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:45) Gavin Brindley: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 5:52) Lawson Crouse: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:07) Nate Schmidt: slap, 68 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 12:10) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 14:41) Barrett Hayton: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 14:42) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:06) Martin Necas: slap, 42 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 17:13) Barrett Hayton: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 17:22) Sean Durzi: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 17:31) Dylan Guenther: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 18:33) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:03) Logan Cooley: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:17) Nick Schmaltz: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 19:18) Logan Cooley: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:34) Parker Kelly: GOAL, snap, 28 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 3:26) Victor Olofsson: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 9:13) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, slap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:49) Brock Nelson: GOAL, slap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:20) Dylan Guenther: GOAL, slap, 25 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 13:20) Martin Necas: GOAL, slap, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:17)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
11 Brock Nelson 101 +1 70.48 0122:56
92 Gabriel Landeskog 011 +1 30.36 0019:13
88 Martin Necas 112 +1 60.23 0018:33
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 30.10 2317:13
43 Valeri Nichushkin 011 -1 30.25 0016:35
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 -1 10.24 1015:34
17 Parker Kelly 112 +2 10.13 1015:21
79 Ross Colton 000 +1 50.13 4111:48
95 Victor Olofsson 101 +2 30.27 1011:47
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 0 30.17 0010:52
54 Gavin Brindley 000 +1 10.03 0008:20
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 10.00 1006:54
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 -1 50.06 0222:40
7 Devon Toews 000 -1 20.07 0221:38
84 Brent Burns 011 +2 50.04 0219:06
27 Brett Kulak 000 +1 00.00 0319:03
42 Josh Manson 011 +2 40.57 1117:50
70 Sam Malinski 011 +1 40.02 0216:11
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 30228 .933 3.09 +1.09

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Clayton Keller 011 -1 70.60 0222:36
8 Nick Schmaltz 000 -1 70.17 0222:13
11 Dylan Guenther 202 +1 70.43 0019:26
92 Logan Cooley 011 +1 20.13 0017:21
27 Barrett Hayton 000 -1 80.59 2016:44
67 Lawson Crouse 000 -1 60.42 1015:56
82 Kevin Stenlund 000 -1 20.10 2214:34
10 JJ Peterka 000 -1 00.00 0012:43
22 Jack McBain 011 +1 00.00 2011:45
14 Alexander Kerfoot 000 -1 20.00 1111:22
56 Kailer Yamamoto 000 -1 10.11 2011:16
13 Brandon Tanev 000 -1 20.09 5008:49
Defense
98 Mikhail Sergachev 011 0 80.23 1125:40
5 Sean Durzi 000 -1 50.07 2119:43
6 John Marino 000 -2 10.00 0018:40
88 Nate Schmidt 000 -2 30.07 2217:10
28 Ian Cole 000 +1 30.07 0316:46
57 Nick DeSimone 000 0 20.00 1114:17
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Karel Vejmelka 26422 .846 3.13 -0.87

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
84 Brent Burns D +2.40 +0.70 +0.03 +1.59 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 19:06
17 Parker Kelly C +2.30 +1.30 +0.09 +0.91 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 15:21
42 Josh Manson D +2.30 +0.55 +0.37 +1.51 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 17:50
95 Victor Olofsson L +2.01 +0.75 +0.17 +1.11 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:47
88 Martin Necas C +1.54 +1.30 +0.15 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:33
11 Brock Nelson C +1.30 +0.75 +0.31 +0.31 0.00 -0.06 -0.01 — 22:56
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +1.17 +0.70 +0.23 +0.39 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 19:13
41 Scott Wedgewood G +1.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.09 60:00
70 Sam Malinski D +1.08 +0.70 +0.01 +0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:11
20 Ross Colton C +0.94 0.00 +0.08 +0.70 +0.15 -0.03 +0.03 — 11:48
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.70 +0.55 +0.16 -0.18 +0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 16:35
27 Brett Kulak D +0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.17 — 19:03
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.51 0.00 +0.02 +0.50 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 8:20
93 Zakhar Bardakov C +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.36 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 6:54
94 Joel Kiviranta L +0.19 0.00 +0.11 +0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:52
8 Cale Makar D +0.16 +0.70 +0.04 -0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:40
62 Artturi Lehkonen L -0.04 0.00 +0.15 -0.31 +0.15 -0.02 -0.02 — 15:34
18 Jack Drury C -0.21 0.00 +0.06 -0.39 0.00 -0.05 +0.17 — 17:13
7 Devon Toews D -0.79 0.00 +0.04 -0.79 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 21:38

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
11 Dylan Guenther R +1.52 +1.50 +0.28 -0.38 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 19:26
9 Clayton Keller R +1.38 +0.55 +0.39 +0.20 +0.15 -0.01 +0.10 — 22:36
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.71 0.00 +0.27 +0.33 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 15:56
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.62 0.00 +0.38 +0.07 +0.15 +0.04 -0.02 — 16:44
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +0.59 +0.70 +0.15 -0.29 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 25:40
92 Logan Cooley C +0.33 +0.55 +0.09 -0.29 0.00 +0.03 -0.04 — 17:21
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.32 0.00 +0.11 +0.28 -0.15 -0.02 +0.10 — 22:13
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +0.20 0.00 +0.07 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:16
28 Ian Cole D +0.01 0.00 +0.05 -0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:46
77 JJ Peterka R -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.17 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 12:43
22 Jack McBain C -0.23 +0.70 0.00 -0.76 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 11:45
88 Nate Schmidt D -0.31 0.00 +0.05 -0.44 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:10
57 Nick DeSimone D -0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.43 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:17
6 John Marino D -0.56 0.00 0.00 -0.58 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 18:40
50 Sean Durzi D -0.64 0.00 +0.04 -0.69 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 19:43
15 Alexander Kerfoot C -0.77 0.00 0.00 -0.85 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 11:22
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.84 0.00 +0.06 -0.92 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 8:49
82 Kevin Stenlund C -0.85 0.00 +0.06 -1.10 0.00 +0.10 +0.08 — 14:34
70 Karel Vejmelka G -0.87 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.87 57:56

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.