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Chicago BlackhawksCHI 2–4 Final Nashville PredatorsNSH

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Chicago BlackhawksCHI 011 2 23
Nashville PredatorsNSH 103 4 26
Playoff odds, % Change
NSH +4.4
CHI -0.6
EDM -0.9
SEA -0.6
SJS -0.6
LAK -0.5
UTA -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 26, 2026 6:49 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
13:50 NSH Filip Forsberg (25) Unassisted · wrist xG 0.11 0–1 ▶
2nd Period
4:13 CHI Connor Bedard (24) Ryan Greene (14) · wrist xG 0.10 1–1 ▶
3rd Period
3:16 CHI Tyler Bertuzzi (26)PP Teuvo Teravainen (14), Sam Rinzel (8) · snap xG 0.32 2–1 ▶
7:12 NSH Matthew Wood (10)PP Erik Haula (21) · wrist xG 0.09 2–2 ▶
16:44 NSH Ryan O'Reilly (21) Roman Josi (29) · wrist xG 0.21 2–3 ▶
19:12 NSH Steven Stamkos (29)EN Unassisted · wrist xG 0.39 2–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CHI 55%Deserve to win45% NSH
CHINSH
2.71Expected goals2.85
2Goals (no shootout)4
1.31Expected goals, 5 on 52.16
44Shot attempts44
31Unblocked attempts35
23Shots on goal26

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
10:57 NSH Deserve to win Deserve to win · NSH takes the lead, 67–33%
CHI had led since 7:31 of the 1st, by as much as 62%
2nd Period
9:50 NSH No shift No shift · Skjei, 20:13 on the bench
No shift from 19:47 of the 1st to the start of the 3rd; 10 shifts (8:11) before that
3rd Period
3:20 CHI xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced NSH 1.35–0.11
In xG over 10 minutes, 14:20 of the 2nd to 4:20 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:32 CHI Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Knight, down 3–2
With 1:28 left; NSH scored at 19:12 of the 3rd (2–4)

Shot map

CHI shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ NSH shoots
Brady Skjei: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:42) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 151 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:09) Matt Grzelcyk: slap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 2:10) Ryan Greene: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:15) Frank Nazar: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:27) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:53) Sam Rinzel: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:19) Tyler Bertuzzi: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 7:01) Nick Foligno: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 7:31) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.18 (P1 9:02) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.26 (P1 10:55) Filip Forsberg: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.29 (P1 10:57) Filip Forsberg: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:58) Connor Murphy: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:18) Andre Burakovsky: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:35) Sam Rinzel: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 13:04) Louis Crevier: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:35) Roman Josi: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 15:12) Luke Evangelista: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 15:27) Michael McCarron: slap, 23 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:42) Connor Bedard: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 18:43) Steven Stamkos: slap, 31 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:55) Filip Forsberg: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 1:10) Michael McCarron: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:50) Tyson Jost: tip-in, 25 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:50) Nick Perbix: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:08) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:49) Frank Nazar: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 4:52) Sam Rinzel: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:00) Jonathan Marchessault: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:22) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 7:34) Michael Bunting: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 8:17) Michael Bunting: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:31) Connor Bedard: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 9:02) Nick Perbix: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:50) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:33) Adam Wilsby: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:00) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 11:56) Luke Evangelista: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:27) Connor Bedard: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:56) Nick Blankenburg: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:20) Sam Rinzel: wrist, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:35) Tyler Bertuzzi: bat, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 16:14) Matt Grzelcyk: wrist, 70 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:10) Connor Murphy: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 18:21) Ryan O'Reilly: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:12) Ryan Greene: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 0:14) Sam Rinzel: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:15) Tyler Bertuzzi: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 1:18) Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.27 (P3 2:09) Teuvo Teravainen: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 2:10) Connor Bedard: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 2:28) Frank Nazar: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 2:41) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 177 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 2:44) Louis Crevier: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:26) Luke Evangelista: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 6:45) Steven Stamkos: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:08) Nicolas Hague: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:33) Frank Nazar: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 13:05) Ryan Greene: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:08) Filip Forsberg: GOAL, wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 13:50) Connor Bedard: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 4:13) Tyler Bertuzzi: GOAL, snap, 8 ft, xG 0.32 (P3 3:16) Matthew Wood: GOAL, wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:12) Ryan O'Reilly: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 16:44) Steven Stamkos: GOAL, wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.39 (P3 19:12)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Chicago Blackhawks

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
98 Connor Bedard 101 0 60.72 0021:29
86 Teuvo Teravainen 011 -2 30.36 0019:49
91 Frank Nazar 000 -2 40.33 0018:13
59 Tyler Bertuzzi 101 -2 40.58 0017:56
95 Andre Burakovsky 000 +1 10.10 0017:08
20 Ryan Greene 011 +1 50.16 0016:44
71 Nick Foligno 000 -1 10.09 3014:55
95 Ilya Mikheyev 000 0 10.00 0014:07
16 Jason Dickinson 000 0 10.00 3013:44
11 Oliver Moore 000 -1 10.00 0012:54
8 Ryan Donato 000 0 00.00 2011:55
84 Landon Slaggert 000 -1 10.00 1009:58
Defense
72 Alex Vlasic 000 0 00.00 0122:39
6 Sam Rinzel 011 -1 60.27 0120:53
55 Artyom Levshunov 000 -1 20.00 2117:47
46 Louis Crevier 000 0 20.02 1117:11
24 Matt Grzelcyk 000 -2 30.02 0216:16
5 Connor Murphy 000 0 30.07 3015:12
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Spencer Knight 25322 .880 2.46 -0.54

Nashville Predators

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
90 Ryan O'Reilly 101 0 40.76 0018:40
9 Filip Forsberg 101 +1 70.48 2017:40
22 Cole Smith 000 +1 00.00 2116:20
56 Erik Haula 011 +2 10.00 6015:56
91 Steven Stamkos 101 +1 70.72 0014:54
47 Michael McCarron 000 0 20.12 2114:40
81 Jonathan Marchessault 000 +1 20.05 0014:23
77 Luke Evangelista 011 0 40.31 0014:20
17 Tyson Jost 000 0 20.04 2113:20
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 40.16 0011:28
71 Matthew Wood 101 0 10.09 2010:07
68 Zachary L'Heureux 000 0 00.00 3009:45
Defense
59 Roman Josi 011 +1 20.00 0225:25
41 Nicolas Hague 000 0 30.04 1122:03
48 Nick Perbix 000 0 20.05 0019:57
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 +1 10.01 4119:52
76 Brady Skjei 000 +2 10.01 2317:17
2 Adam Wilsby 000 0 10.01 1214:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Justus Annunen 23221 .913 2.71 +0.71

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Chicago Blackhawks

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
98 Connor Bedard C +1.64 +0.75 +0.47 +0.48 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 21:29
20 Ryan Greene C +1.20 +0.70 +0.10 +0.25 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:44
59 Tyler Bertuzzi L +1.05 +0.75 +0.37 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:56
6 Sam Rinzel D +0.53 +0.55 +0.17 -0.30 +0.08 0.00 +0.03 — 20:53
28 Andre Burakovsky L +0.52 0.00 +0.06 +0.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:08
86 Teuvo Teravainen C +0.40 +0.70 +0.23 -0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:49
11 Oliver Moore C +0.13 0.00 0.00 +0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:54
91 Frank Nazar C +0.11 0.00 +0.21 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 18:13
5 Connor Murphy D +0.10 0.00 +0.05 0.00 +0.08 0.00 -0.02 — 15:12
55 Artyom Levshunov D -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:47
48 Matt Grzelcyk D -0.21 0.00 +0.01 -0.30 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 16:16
84 Landon Slaggert L -0.43 0.00 0.00 -0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:58
30 Spencer Knight G -0.54 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.54 59:15
17 Nick Foligno L -0.57 0.00 +0.06 -0.51 -0.15 +0.03 0.00 — 14:55
46 Louis Crevier D -0.67 0.00 +0.01 -0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:11
8 Ryan Donato C -0.68 0.00 0.00 -0.96 +0.30 0.00 -0.02 — 11:55
72 Alex Vlasic D -0.71 0.00 0.00 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:39
16 Jason Dickinson C -0.98 0.00 0.00 -1.01 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 13:44
95 Ilya Mikheyev R -1.05 0.00 0.00 -1.03 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:07

Nashville Predators

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
90 Ryan O'Reilly C +2.40 +0.75 +0.49 +1.02 +0.15 -0.03 +0.02 — 18:40
9 Filip Forsberg L +1.60 +0.75 +0.31 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:40
59 Roman Josi D +1.43 +0.70 0.00 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.12 — 25:25
91 Steven Stamkos C +1.41 +0.75 +0.47 +0.23 0.00 +0.02 -0.06 — 14:54
41 Nicolas Hague D +0.84 0.00 +0.02 +0.77 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:03
71 Matthew Wood R +0.82 +0.75 +0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 10:07
77 Luke Evangelista R +0.79 0.00 +0.20 +0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:20
29 Justus Annunen G +0.71 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.71 60:00
81 Jonathan Marchessault R +0.65 0.00 +0.04 +0.66 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 14:23
83 Adam Wilsby D +0.56 0.00 +0.01 +0.60 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 14:02
76 Brady Skjei D +0.35 0.00 +0.01 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.13 — 17:17
58 Michael Bunting L +0.30 0.00 +0.10 +0.18 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:28
47 Michael McCarron C +0.23 0.00 +0.08 +0.24 -0.15 0.00 +0.07 — 14:40
37 Nick Blankenburg D +0.16 0.00 +0.01 +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 19:52
56 Erik Haula L +0.13 +0.70 0.00 -0.24 -0.30 -0.01 -0.02 — 15:56
68 Zachary L'Heureux L +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:45
17 Tyson Jost C +0.11 0.00 +0.03 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 13:20
36 Cole Smith R -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.19 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:20
48 Nick Perbix D -0.29 0.00 +0.03 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 19:57

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.