hockeystats.io

Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 2–3 Final Washington CapitalsWSH

Friday, February 27, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 002 2 26
Washington CapitalsWSH 030 3 30
Playoff odds, % Change
WSH +5.2
VGK -1.4
NYI -1.1
CBJ -1.0
BOS -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Feb 27, 2026 7:04 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
0:49 WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois (2) Aliaksei Protas (21), Rasmus Sandin (17) · snap xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
3:23 WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois (3) Aliaksei Protas (22) · snap xG 0.25 0–2 ▶
14:52 WSH Jakob Chychrun (22) Rasmus Sandin (18), Pierre-Luc Dubois (2) · snap xG 0.06 0–3 ▶
3rd Period
2:27 VGK Braeden Bowman (8) Kaedan Korczak (10), Brayden McNabb (4) · wrist xG 0.17 1–3 ▶
9:15 VGK Tomas Hertl (23)PP Pavel Dorofeyev (19), Mitch Marner (43) · tip-in xG 0.09 2–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 70%Deserve to win30% WSH
VGKWSH
4.14Expected goals2.80
2Goals (no shootout)3
2.95Expected goals, 5 on 51.76
66Shot attempts56
47Unblocked attempts44
26Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
19:53 WSH Goalie Goalie · Thompson +2.0 goals saved
0 goals on 2.03 xG, 13 shots on goal
3rd Period
16:30 VGK xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced WSH 1.46–0.10
In xG over 10 minutes, 6:40 to 16:40 of the 3rd; goals 1–0
18:09 VGK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Schmid, down 3–2
With 1:51 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ WSH shoots
Rasmus Sandin: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:39) Ethen Frank: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 1:54) Jakob Chychrun: slap, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:00) Mark Stone: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 3:18) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:32) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 4:06) Tomas Hertl: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 4:14) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:21) Brayden McNabb: snap, 52 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:01) Matt Roy: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 6:00) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:16) Braeden Bowman: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:11) Anthony Beauvillier: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:40) Declan Chisholm: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:06) Colton Sissons: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.19 (P1 8:13) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 99 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:34) Jeremy Lauzon: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 9:28) Connor McMichael: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:09) Noah Hanifin: snap, 186 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:22) Jakob Chychrun: wrist, 179 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 11:34) Jeremy Lauzon: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 12:20) Mitch Marner: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 12:26) Dylan Strome: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:18) Tomas Hertl: snap, 28 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 14:47) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 17:52) Keegan Kolesar: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 18:07) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 18:14) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 19:45) Ethen Frank: snap, 79 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:57) Reilly Smith: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:36) Keegan Kolesar: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 2:20) Colton Sissons: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 3:03) Noah Hanifin: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 4:14) Ryan Leonard: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.17 (P2 5:21) Ryan Leonard: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:55) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 5:56) Alex Ovechkin: wrist, 6 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:57) Jakob Chychrun: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:06) Dylan Strome: snap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:45) Rasmus Sandin: snap, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:33) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:40) Shea Theodore: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:09) Ivan Barbashev: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:20) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:08) Justin Sourdif: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:49) Ethen Frank: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 13:32) Ethen Frank: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 13:49) Nic Dowd: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 13:50) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 16:53) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P2 17:34) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:31) Alexander Holtz: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:52) Brandon Saad: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 19:53) Alexander Holtz: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:56) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:26) Tom Wilson: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:30) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:34) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 0:57) Reilly Smith: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:06) Ryan Leonard: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 3:02) Ryan Leonard: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:09) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:34) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 3:39) Aliaksei Protas: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:12) Ryan Leonard: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 6:01) Alex Ovechkin: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:35) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 7:33) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 7:45) Reilly Smith: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 8:10) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:52) Colton Sissons: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.26 (P3 9:56) Brandon Duhaime: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:29) Ivan Barbashev: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:16) Brandon Saad: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:19) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 13:19) Tom Wilson: snap, 77 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 13:29) Mark Stone: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 15:25) Jakob Chychrun: deflected, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 16:02) Mitch Marner: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 16:24) Reilly Smith: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:25) Noah Hanifin: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 16:27) Pierre-Luc Dubois: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 16:44) Mark Stone: deflected, 8 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 18:20) Tomas Hertl: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:09) Jack Eichel: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:21) Tomas Hertl: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 19:42) Pierre-Luc Dubois: GOAL, snap, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 0:49) Pierre-Luc Dubois: GOAL, snap, 17 ft, xG 0.25 (P2 3:23) Jakob Chychrun: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 14:52) Braeden Bowman: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 2:27) Tomas Hertl: GOAL, tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:15)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Jack Eichel 000 -2 50.02 0020:46
61 Mark Stone 000 -1 40.42 0120:40
93 Mitch Marner 011 0 20.21 0119:50
48 Tomas Hertl 101 +1 80.67 3118:26
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 011 -1 20.19 0116:24
49 Ivan Barbashev 000 -2 30.16 2015:14
19 Reilly Smith 000 0 50.36 0114:08
20 Brandon Saad 000 -1 30.15 0012:28
55 Keegan Kolesar 000 +1 20.25 3011:28
42 Braeden Bowman 101 +1 30.18 0011:18
15 Colton Sissons 000 -1 40.71 2111:06
10 Alexander Holtz 000 -1 20.13 0008:04
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 -2 80.26 0020:46
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 -1 40.07 4120:35
27 Shea Theodore 000 0 30.08 0020:04
15 Noah Hanifin 000 -1 50.27 0219:55
3 Brayden McNabb 011 0 10.02 6217:37
6 Kaedan Korczak 011 0 20.00 0113:02
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Akira Schmid 30327 .900 2.80 -0.20

Washington Capitals

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
43 Tom Wilson 000 +3 60.02 0121:58
21 Aliaksei Protas 022 +3 40.05 1019:38
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois 213 +3 70.70 0119:37
8 Alex Ovechkin 000 -1 70.48 2217:43
17 Dylan Strome 000 -1 20.12 0116:26
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 10.05 2015:13
77 Connor McMichael 000 0 10.11 0015:03
9 Ryan Leonard 000 0 70.56 0014:42
72 Anthony Beauvillier 000 -1 10.07 1113:48
53 Ethen Frank 000 0 40.28 0010:58
24 Brandon Duhaime 000 0 20.01 3009:36
34 Justin Sourdif 000 0 10.01 0007:59
Defense
6 Jakob Chychrun 101 +1 90.25 0224:43
42 Martin Fehérváry 000 +1 00.00 2522:04
38 Rasmus Sandin 022 +3 20.04 2221:30
3 Matt Roy 000 +1 10.04 2020:20
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk 000 -1 00.00 0112:54
47 Declan Chisholm 000 -1 10.01 2110:59
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Logan Thompson 26224 .923 4.14 +2.14

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
48 Tomas Hertl C +1.94 +0.75 +0.43 +0.69 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 18:26
93 Mitch Marner R +1.20 +0.55 +0.14 +0.50 0.00 -0.04 +0.05 — 19:50
3 Brayden McNabb D +1.01 +0.55 +0.01 +0.35 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:37
42 Braeden Bowman R +0.94 +0.75 +0.12 +0.22 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:18
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +0.94 +0.70 +0.12 +0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:24
19 Reilly Smith R +0.89 0.00 +0.23 +0.48 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 14:08
6 Kaedan Korczak D +0.88 +0.70 0.00 +0.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 13:02
10 Colton Sissons C +0.85 0.00 +0.46 +0.30 0.00 +0.04 +0.05 — 11:06
20 Brandon Saad L +0.76 0.00 +0.10 +0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:28
27 Shea Theodore D +0.70 0.00 +0.05 +0.54 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 20:04
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.69 0.00 +0.16 +0.55 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 11:28
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.60 0.00 +0.17 +0.54 -0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 19:55
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.40 0.00 +0.05 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:35
26 Alexander Holtz R +0.24 0.00 +0.09 +0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 8:04
4 Rasmus Andersson D +0.09 0.00 +0.17 -0.04 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 20:46
61 Mark Stone R +0.07 0.00 +0.27 -0.10 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:40
49 Ivan Barbashev L -0.17 0.00 +0.10 -0.22 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:14
40 Akira Schmid G -0.20 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.20 58:09
9 Jack Eichel C -0.52 0.00 +0.02 -0.45 0.00 -0.03 -0.06 — 20:46

Washington Capitals

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
80 Pierre-Luc Dubois L +3.29 +2.05 +0.46 +0.64 +0.15 0.00 -0.01 — 19:37
21 Aliaksei Protas C +2.27 +1.40 +0.03 +0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 19:38
48 Logan Thompson G +2.14 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +2.14 59:49
38 Rasmus Sandin D +1.50 +1.25 +0.03 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 21:30
6 Jakob Chychrun D +1.10 +0.75 +0.16 +0.15 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 24:43
43 Tom Wilson R +0.95 0.00 +0.01 +0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 21:58
3 Matt Roy D +0.26 0.00 +0.03 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 20:20
42 Martin Fehérváry D +0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.10 0.00 0.00 +0.23 — 22:04
26 Nic Dowd C +0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.06 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 15:13
53 Ethen Frank C +0.05 0.00 +0.18 -0.09 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 10:58
22 Brandon Duhaime R +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 9:36
9 Ryan Leonard R -0.01 0.00 +0.37 -0.21 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 14:42
34 Justin Sourdif R -0.15 0.00 +0.01 -0.28 +0.15 -0.05 +0.02 — 7:59
24 Connor McMichael C -0.59 0.00 +0.07 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 15:03
8 Alex Ovechkin L -0.90 0.00 +0.31 -1.29 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 17:43
57 Trevor van Riemsdyk D -1.13 0.00 0.00 -1.18 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:54
17 Dylan Strome C -1.20 0.00 +0.08 -1.53 +0.15 +0.07 +0.03 — 16:26
72 Anthony Beauvillier L -1.21 0.00 +0.05 -1.32 0.00 +0.01 +0.05 — 13:48
47 Declan Chisholm D -1.35 0.00 +0.01 -1.41 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:59

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.