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Carolina HurricanesCAR 1–2 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Monday, March 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Carolina HurricanesCAR 010 1 36
Seattle KrakenSEA 020 2 15
Playoff odds, % Change
SEA +5.9
CAR -0.0
EDM -1.1
LAK -1.1
SJS -1.0
UTA -0.9
NSH -0.8

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 2, 2026 9:50 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
3:22 SEA Kaapo Kakko (8) Adam Larsson (12) · wrist xG 0.08 0–1 ▶
8:48 SEA Ben Meyers (6) Frederick Gaudreau (14), Adam Larsson (13) · backhand xG 0.13 0–2 ▶
18:30 CAR Nikolaj Ehlers (16) Jordan Martinook (13), Sean Walker (12) · wrist xG 0.11 1–2 ▶
3rd Period
No scoring

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

CAR 69%Deserve to win31% SEA
CARSEA
2.60Expected goals1.62
1Goals (no shootout)2
2.13Expected goals, 5 on 51.16
82Shot attempts30
57Unblocked attempts24
36Shots on goal15

Shot map

CAR shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:48) Seth Jarvis: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 1:13) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:22) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:19) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 144 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 3:55) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 4:18) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 4:19) Taylor Hall: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:58) Cale Fleury: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 5:17) Nikolaj Ehlers: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:35) Jalen Chatfield: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:47) Sebastian Aho: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 8:00) Jared McCann: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 10:46) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:47) Jacob Melanson: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:07) Andrei Svechnikov: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 12:26) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 13:22) Sean Walker: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:27) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:46) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 14:50) Ryker Evans: wrist, 143 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 16:24) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:08) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 18:40) Alexander Nikishin: slap, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 18:45) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:52) Ben Meyers: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 19:49) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:36) Taylor Hall: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:18) Matty Beniers: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 2:17) Jordan Staal: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:39) Chandler Stephenson: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 4:48) Taylor Hall: wrist, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 5:16) Taylor Hall: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:29) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:57) Matty Beniers: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 6:26) Jordan Staal: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:08) Jared McCann: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:19) Chandler Stephenson: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:38) Matty Beniers: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:40) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 10:52) Shane Wright: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:11) Brandon Montour: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:21) Jordan Martinook: backhand, 22 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:44) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 12:03) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 12:13) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:01) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 14:22) Sean Walker: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 15:47) Logan Stankoven: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 17:08) Jackson Blake: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 17:10) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 17:24) Andrei Svechnikov: wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 19:00) Taylor Hall: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 19:09) Jaccob Slavin: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:54) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:36) Andrei Svechnikov: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 2:07) Seth Jarvis: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 2:37) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:38) Jacob Melanson: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:47) Jalen Chatfield: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:37) Adam Larsson: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:10) K'Andre Miller: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 9:05) Eeli Tolvanen: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 9:20) Jaden Schwartz: backhand, 50 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 9:22) Shane Wright: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 9:33) Logan Stankoven: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 10:50) Shayne Gostisbehere: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:57) Jackson Blake: tip-in, 31 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:02) Jaccob Slavin: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:54) Jordan Martinook: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:34) Sebastian Aho: slap, 47 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 16:33) Nikolaj Ehlers: slap, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:46) Seth Jarvis: slap, 36 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:52) Jordan Staal: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 17:58) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 18:59) Shayne Gostisbehere: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:06) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 19:54) Sebastian Aho: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 19:58) Kaapo Kakko: GOAL, wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 3:22) Ben Meyers: GOAL, backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 8:48) Nikolaj Ehlers: GOAL, wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:30)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Carolina Hurricanes

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
20 Sebastian Aho 000 -1 80.32 0019:57
24 Seth Jarvis 000 -1 60.27 2019:38
11 Jordan Staal 000 +1 30.17 1117:18
27 Nikolaj Ehlers 101 +1 70.22 1017:02
22 Logan Stankoven 000 0 40.26 1016:23
71 Taylor Hall 000 0 70.15 0016:14
53 Jackson Blake 000 0 20.17 0115:51
37 Andrei Svechnikov 000 -1 70.54 1015:49
48 Jordan Martinook 011 +1 50.08 1015:44
77 Mark Jankowski 000 -1 00.00 0109:30
50 Eric Robinson 000 -1 00.00 0008:27
28 William Carrier 000 -1 20.00 0006:51
Defense
74 Jaccob Slavin 000 0 50.05 1022:48
19 K'Andre Miller 000 +1 30.01 3021:12
26 Sean Walker 011 +1 60.07 1120:41
5 Jalen Chatfield 000 0 50.02 0019:39
4 Shayne Gostisbehere 000 -2 90.20 0319:39
21 Alexander Nikishin 000 -2 30.06 1013:38
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Frederik Andersen 15213 .867 1.62 -0.38

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
9 Chandler Stephenson 000 -1 20.23 0119:58
10 Matty Beniers 000 0 30.24 0119:13
19 Jared McCann 000 0 30.14 1217:43
17 Eeli Tolvanen 000 -1 20.11 3417:21
71 Jaden Schwartz 000 -1 10.00 0017:19
7 Jordan Eberle 000 0 20.07 0116:55
89 Frederick Gaudreau 011 +1 10.00 1114:36
59 Ben Meyers 101 +1 20.30 1013:08
51 Shane Wright 000 +1 20.12 0112:59
63 Jacob Melanson 000 +1 30.11 7212:20
84 Kaapo Kakko 101 +1 10.08 0012:09
27 Berkly Catton 000 +1 10.00 0010:48
Defense
29 Vince Dunn 000 -1 00.00 2023:42
62 Brandon Montour 000 +1 20.05 1122:46
6 Adam Larsson 022 0 10.15 2121:42
4 Jamie Oleksiak 000 0 00.00 11318:06
8 Cale Fleury 000 +1 20.02 2414:08
41 Ryker Evans 000 +1 20.00 0113:52
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 36135 .972 2.60 +1.60

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Carolina Hurricanes

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
26 Sean Walker D +1.34 +0.55 +0.05 +0.73 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:41
27 Nikolaj Ehlers L +1.18 +0.75 +0.14 +0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 17:02
48 Jordan Martinook L +1.14 +0.70 +0.05 +0.52 -0.15 0.00 +0.02 — 15:42
24 Seth Jarvis C +0.82 0.00 +0.18 +0.65 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 19:38
20 Sebastian Aho C +0.71 0.00 +0.21 +0.31 +0.15 +0.04 0.00 — 19:57
11 Jordan Staal C +0.66 0.00 +0.11 +0.50 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 17:18
19 K'Andre Miller D +0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 21:12
22 Logan Stankoven C +0.51 0.00 +0.17 +0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 16:23
71 Taylor Hall L +0.47 0.00 +0.10 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:14
37 Andrei Svechnikov R +0.46 0.00 +0.35 +0.32 -0.15 0.00 -0.06 — 15:49
5 Jalen Chatfield D +0.41 0.00 +0.02 +0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:39
74 Jaccob Slavin D +0.37 0.00 +0.03 +0.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:48
53 Jackson Blake R +0.22 0.00 +0.11 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:51
4 Shayne Gostisbehere D +0.15 0.00 +0.13 -0.08 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:39
28 William Carrier L -0.15 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 -0.01 +0.02 — 6:51
21 Alexander Nikishin D -0.15 0.00 +0.04 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:38
77 Mark Jankowski L -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.27 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 9:30
31 Frederik Andersen G -0.38 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.38 57:39
50 Eric Robinson L -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 8:29

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
35 Joey Daccord G +1.60 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.60 59:46
59 Ben Meyers C +1.31 +0.75 +0.20 +0.39 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:08
6 Adam Larsson D +1.09 +1.25 +0.10 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:42
89 Frederick Gaudreau C +0.92 +0.70 0.00 +0.18 0.00 +0.01 +0.03 — 14:36
63 Jacob Melanson R +0.60 0.00 +0.07 +0.43 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 12:20
84 Kaapo Kakko R +0.57 +0.75 +0.05 -0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 12:09
62 Brandon Montour D +0.18 0.00 +0.03 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 22:46
10 Matty Beniers C +0.05 0.00 +0.15 -0.37 +0.15 +0.05 +0.07 — 19:13
24 Jamie Oleksiak D -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 18:06
51 Shane Wright C -0.13 0.00 +0.08 -0.22 0.00 +0.01 +0.01 — 12:59
19 Jared McCann L -0.25 0.00 +0.09 -0.56 +0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 17:43
29 Vince Dunn D -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.42 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 23:42
17 Jaden Schwartz L -0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.34 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 17:19
27 Berkly Catton C -0.38 0.00 0.00 -0.37 0.00 +0.01 -0.02 — 10:48
9 Chandler Stephenson C -0.38 0.00 +0.15 -0.53 0.00 -0.05 +0.05 — 19:58
8 Cale Fleury D -0.38 0.00 +0.02 -0.54 0.00 0.00 +0.14 — 14:08
7 Jordan Eberle R -0.40 0.00 +0.05 -0.48 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:55
20 Eeli Tolvanen R -0.49 0.00 +0.07 -0.61 -0.15 0.00 +0.20 — 17:21
41 Ryker Evans D -0.52 0.00 0.00 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 13:52

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.