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Colorado AvalancheCOL 4–2 Final Los Angeles KingsLAK

Monday, March 2, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 202 4 39
Los Angeles KingsLAK 110 2 21
Playoff odds, % Change
LAK -5.0
COL +0.0
EDM +1.3
SEA +0.8
UTA +0.8
SJS +0.8
NSH +0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 2, 2026 9:50 PM EST.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:27 COL Nathan MacKinnon (41) Martin Necas (44), Gabriel Landeskog (18) · snap xG 0.23 1–0 ▶
10:13 COL Gabriel Landeskog (8) Brent Burns (19), Martin Necas (45) · slap xG 0.04 2–0 ▶
17:20 LAK Brandt Clarke (8)PP Anze Kopitar (18) · wrist xG 0.04 2–1 ▶
2nd Period
8:32 LAK Angus Booth (1) Brian Dumoulin (12), Adrian Kempe (28) · tip-in xG 0.10 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
15:05 COL Devon Toews (2) Nathan MacKinnon (58), Cale Makar (44) · wrist xG 0.15 3–2 ▶
19:58 COL Martin Necas (26)PPEN Gabriel Landeskog (19) · wrist xG 0.62 4–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 87%Deserve to win13% LAK
COLLAK
4.25Expected goals1.27
4Goals (no shootout)2
3.53Expected goals, 5 on 51.21
79Shot attempts46
55Unblocked attempts35
39Shots on goal21

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
19:30 COL No shift No shift · Lehkonen, 47:03 on the bench
No shift after 9:19 of the 1st; 3 shifts (3:21) before that
3rd Period
19:43 LAK Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled Forsberg, down 3–2
With 0:17 left; COL scored at 19:58 of the 3rd (4–2)

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ LAK shoots
Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:22) Angus Booth: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:00) Brett Kulak: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:04) Adrian Kempe: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:53) Josh Manson: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:04) Sam Malinski: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:48) Brock Nelson: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 8:49) Artturi Lehkonen: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 9:10) Jeff Malott: backhand, 85 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 9:51) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 10:05) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 32 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 11:54) Martin Necas: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:01) Corey Perry: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 12:36) Anze Kopitar: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:07) Jack Drury: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:03) Brandt Clarke: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:57) Sam Malinski: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 15:19) Cale Makar: wrap-around, 5 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:12) Jeff Malott: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 17:12) Jeff Malott: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:13) Adrian Kempe: snap, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:58) Warren Foegele: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 0:14) Corey Perry: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:27) Samuel Helenius: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:28) Josh Manson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 1:58) Brent Burns: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:01) Kenny Connors: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 2:31) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 4:03) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:18) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 28 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:39) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:57) Brock Nelson: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 5:10) Brock Nelson: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 5:55) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 6:21) Ross Colton: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:30) Joel Edmundson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:56) Corey Perry: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 8:45) Cody Ceci: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:50) Brock Nelson: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 9:05) Victor Olofsson: snap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 9:24) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 11:13) Brent Burns: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 11:54) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:41) Gabriel Landeskog: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 13:33) Ross Colton: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:00) Victor Olofsson: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 15:20) Cale Makar: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 15:24) Cale Makar: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 16:03) Josh Manson: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 16:41) Jack Drury: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:01) Gabriel Landeskog: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 17:52) Kenny Connors: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:15) Jared Wright: wrap-around, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 18:21) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 36 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 0:19) Cale Makar: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 0:23) Adrian Kempe: wrist, 43 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:46) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 7 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 2:03) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:08) Cody Ceci: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 2:35) Ross Colton: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:06) Warren Foegele: wrist, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:52) Gabriel Landeskog: backhand, 91 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 4:15) Valeri Nichushkin: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 4:36) Artemi Panarin: slap, 29 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:53) Kenny Connors: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:18) Alex Turcotte: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 7:20) Artemi Panarin: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 7:22) Anze Kopitar: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:28) Brian Dumoulin: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:42) Alex Laferriere: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:12) Adrian Kempe: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 10:03) Artemi Panarin: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:04) Brett Kulak: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 10:28) Ross Colton: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 10:36) Brent Burns: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 11:28) Victor Olofsson: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 11:31) Cale Makar: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:11) Parker Kelly: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 12:43) Valeri Nichushkin: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 13:40) Gabriel Landeskog: slap, 13 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:48) Brent Burns: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 15:40) Joel Edmundson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:27) Kenny Connors: wrist, 80 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 16:53) Alex Laferriere: wrist, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 18:04) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, snap, 25 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 4:27) Gabriel Landeskog: GOAL, slap, 47 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 10:13) Brandt Clarke: GOAL, wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 17:20) Angus Booth: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 8:32) Devon Toews: GOAL, wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 15:05) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.62 (P3 19:58)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
29 Nathan MacKinnon 112 +3 130.91 0121:07
88 Martin Necas 123 +3 60.77 2120:25
11 Brock Nelson 000 0 70.45 1119:13
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 0 80.16 0019:06
92 Gabriel Landeskog 123 +3 80.49 0018:44
17 Parker Kelly 000 -1 20.05 1116:40
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 30.06 1116:03
95 Victor Olofsson 000 0 30.30 1014:09
79 Ross Colton 000 -1 40.28 2012:23
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 00.00 0009:14
54 Gavin Brindley 000 0 00.00 1007:30
62 Artturi Lehkonen 000 0 10.08 0003:21
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 +3 60.18 0325:26
7 Devon Toews 101 +2 10.15 1122:29
70 Sam Malinski 000 0 40.03 0019:07
84 Brent Burns 011 0 80.13 0118:13
42 Josh Manson 000 -1 30.17 3017:23
27 Brett Kulak 000 0 20.04 0117:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Mackenzie Blackwood 21219 .905 1.27 -0.73

Los Angeles Kings

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
10 Artemi Panarin 000 -1 70.14 0022:24
9 Adrian Kempe 011 -1 60.08 0120:52
14 Alex Laferriere 000 -1 20.12 7120:18
11 Anze Kopitar 011 -1 30.04 2220:08
90 Corey Perry 000 0 30.23 1317:15
37 Warren Foegele 000 -1 20.05 2016:11
17 Taylor Ward 000 0 00.00 2112:01
79 Samuel Helenius 000 -1 30.02 4011:28
15 Alex Turcotte 000 0 10.13 1010:49
34 Kenny Connors 000 0 40.11 1110:14
39 Jeff Malott 000 0 30.09 6110:01
25 Jared Wright 000 0 10.02 3009:42
Defense
5 Cody Ceci 000 -2 20.02 1124:24
92 Brandt Clarke 101 -1 30.04 0223:30
44 Mikey Anderson 000 -2 10.00 1422:35
6 Joel Edmundson 000 -1 20.02 3519:39
2 Brian Dumoulin 011 +1 10.02 0015:02
81 Angus Booth 101 +1 20.11 2112:18
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Anton Forsberg 38335 .921 3.62 +0.62

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
88 Martin Necas C +4.60 +2.00 +0.50 +1.90 +0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 20:25
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +4.30 +1.45 +0.59 +2.25 0.00 +0.01 -0.01 — 21:07
92 Gabriel Landeskog L +4.17 +2.00 +0.32 +1.87 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 18:44
7 Devon Toews D +2.39 +0.75 +0.10 +1.49 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:29
8 Cale Makar D +2.34 +0.55 +0.12 +1.59 0.00 0.00 +0.09 — 25:26
84 Brent Burns D +1.55 +0.70 +0.08 +0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 18:13
11 Brock Nelson C +1.15 0.00 +0.29 +0.86 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 19:13
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +1.01 0.00 +0.10 +0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:06
95 Victor Olofsson L +0.67 0.00 +0.19 +0.50 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:09
27 Brett Kulak D +0.63 0.00 +0.03 +0.59 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 17:21
70 Sam Malinski D +0.61 0.00 +0.02 +0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 19:07
42 Josh Manson D +0.59 0.00 +0.11 +0.65 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:23
18 Jack Drury C +0.32 0.00 +0.04 +0.23 0.00 +0.03 +0.03 — 16:03
62 Artturi Lehkonen L +0.23 0.00 +0.05 +0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 3:21
20 Ross Colton C +0.16 0.00 +0.18 -0.04 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 12:23
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.07 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:30
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:14
17 Parker Kelly C -0.06 0.00 +0.03 -0.14 0.00 +0.02 +0.03 — 16:40
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G -0.73 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.73 60:00

Los Angeles Kings

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
31 Anton Forsberg G +0.62 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.62 58:36
81 Angus Booth D +0.54 +0.75 +0.07 -0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 12:18
2 Brian Dumoulin D +0.52 +0.70 +0.01 -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:02
34 Kenny Connors C +0.22 0.00 +0.07 +0.16 0.00 -0.04 +0.03 — 10:14
53 Jared Wright R +0.12 0.00 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:42
39 Jeff Malott L -0.21 0.00 +0.06 -0.32 0.00 -0.02 +0.07 — 10:01
9 Adrian Kempe R -0.21 +0.55 +0.05 -0.82 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:52
15 Alex Turcotte C -0.24 0.00 +0.09 -0.33 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:49
10 Corey Perry R -0.26 0.00 +0.15 -0.51 0.00 -0.02 +0.11 — 17:15
11 Anze Kopitar C -0.33 +0.70 +0.03 -1.21 0.00 +0.04 +0.12 — 20:08
52 Taylor Ward R -0.46 0.00 0.00 -0.51 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 12:01
6 Joel Edmundson D -0.49 0.00 +0.02 -0.75 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 19:39
92 Brandt Clarke D -0.57 +0.75 +0.03 -1.32 -0.15 0.00 +0.12 — 23:30
79 Samuel Helenius C -0.81 0.00 +0.01 -0.91 +0.15 -0.04 -0.02 — 11:28
72 Artemi Panarin L -1.15 0.00 +0.09 -1.23 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 22:24
14 Alex Laferriere R -1.18 0.00 +0.08 -1.33 0.00 +0.04 +0.03 — 20:18
44 Mikey Anderson D -1.26 0.00 0.00 -1.46 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 22:35
37 Warren Foegele L -1.34 0.00 +0.04 -1.36 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:11
5 Cody Ceci D -1.95 0.00 +0.01 -2.02 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 24:24

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.