Detroit Red WingsDET 1–4 Final Tampa Bay LightningTBL

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final	1st	2nd	3rd	T	SOG
Detroit Red WingsDET	0	0	1	1	25
Tampa Bay LightningTBL	0	1	3	4	29

Playoff odds, %	Change
DET	-7.0
TBL	+1.2
OTT	+1.5
BOS	+1.3
CBJ	+0.9
NYI	+0.7
PIT	+0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 6:17 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
No scoring
2nd Period
0:49	TBL	Jake Guentzel (28)PP Nikita Kucherov (71), Corey Perry (18) · snap xG 0.16	0–1 ▶
3rd Period
1:35	TBL	Gage Goncalves (9) Brayden Point (25) · deflected xG 0.13	0–2 ▶
7:05	DET	J.T. Compher (9) Alex DeBrincat (32), Patrick Kane (28) · tip-in xG 0.10	1–2 ▶
16:22	TBL	Gage Goncalves (10) Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72) · deflected xG 0.14	1–3 ▶
16:55	TBL	Jake Guentzel (29)EN Anthony Cirelli (25) · wrist xG 0.66	1–4 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

DET 30%Deserve to win70% TBL

DET		TBL
2.22	Expected goals	4.09
1	Goals (no shootout)	4
2.22	Expected goals, 5 on 5	3.23
56	Shot attempts	72
42	Unblocked attempts	49
25	Shots on goal	29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

2nd Period
13:05	DET	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · DET takes the lead, 61–39% TBL had led since 19:55 of the 1st, by as much as 70%
13:10	DET	xG swing	xG swing · Out-chanced TBL 1.24–0.24 In xG over 10 minutes, 3:10 to 13:10 of the 2nd; neither team scored
3rd Period
8:28	TBL	Deserve to win	Deserve to win · TBL takes the lead, 64–36% DET had led since 13:05 of the 2nd, by as much as 61%
15:20	DET	No shift	No shift · Brandsegg-Nygård, 11:24 on the bench No shift from 5:17 to 16:55 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (8:48) before that
16:27	DET	Pulled goalie	Pulled goalie · Pulled Gibson, down 3–1 With 3:33 left; TBL scored at 16:55 of the 3rd (1–4)

Shot map

DET shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ TBL shoots

About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Detroit Red Wings

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
23	Lucas Raymond	0	0	0	-1	7	0.17	0	0	19:52
37	J.T. Compher	1	0	1	-1	3	0.26	0	1	19:26
88	Patrick Kane	0	1	1	-1	7	0.32	2	0	19:19
93	Alex DeBrincat	0	1	1	-1	4	0.08	0	1	18:15
92	Marco Kasper	0	0	0	-1	3	0.15	2	0	18:07
58	Emmitt Finnie	0	0	0	-1	5	0.27	3	1	17:44
22	Mason Appleton	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	13:36
27	Michael Rasmussen	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	2	2	12:58
21	James van Riemsdyk	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	0	1	11:52
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	10:27
15	Sheldon Dries	0	0	0	0	3	0.11	3	1	10:16
65	Dominik Shine	0	0	0	0	3	0.24	3	2	09:09
Defense
53	Moritz Seider	0	0	0	-1	9	0.22	0	2	25:11
77	Simon Edvinsson	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	0	4	24:12
72	Justin Faulk	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	4	1	19:11
8	Ben Chiarot	0	0	0	-1	5	0.07	1	2	18:47
20	Albert Johansson	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	16:50
25	Jacob Bernard-Docker	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	14:14

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
John Gibson	28	3	25	.893	3.44	+0.44

Tampa Bay Lightning

	Skater	G	A	P	+/−	Att	xG	Hit	Blk	TOI
Forwards
93	Gage Goncalves	2	0	2	+2	6	0.69	2	2	18:47
86	Nikita Kucherov	0	2	2	+2	5	0.18	0	0	18:33
21	Brayden Point	0	2	2	+2	6	0.23	0	1	18:13
38	Brandon Hagel	0	0	0	0	4	0.07	0	0	17:07
59	Jake Guentzel	2	0	2	0	7	1.07	1	0	15:56
71	Anthony Cirelli	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	15:33
37	Yanni Gourde	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	15:25
28	Oliver Bjorkstrand	0	0	0	0	6	0.61	1	0	13:38
90	Corey Perry	0	1	1	0	1	0.01	1	0	12:21
28	Zemgus Girgensons	0	0	0	0	3	0.04	4	0	11:46
29	Pontus Holmberg	0	0	0	0	5	0.64	1	0	11:42
49	Scott Sabourin	0	0	0	0	4	0.04	4	0	09:47
Defense
43	Darren Raddysh	0	0	0	+2	8	0.13	1	1	24:17
27	Ryan McDonagh	0	0	0	+2	2	0.15	1	4	22:19
90	J.J. Moser	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	1	21:09
77	Victor Hedman	0	0	0	0	4	0.10	2	1	18:54
51	Charle-Edouard D'Astous	0	0	0	0	5	0.07	1	2	18:41
72	Declan Carlile	0	0	0	0	2	0.00	1	2	13:52

Goalie	SA	GA	SV	SV%	xGA	GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	1	24	.960	2.22	+1.22

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Detroit Red Wings

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
37 J.T. Compher L	+1.04	+0.75	+0.17	+0.07	0.00	+0.01	+0.05	—	19:26
93 Alex DeBrincat R	+1.01	+0.70	+0.05	+0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	18:15
88 Patrick Kane R	+0.93	+0.55	+0.21	+0.15	0.00	0.00	+0.02	—	19:19
65 Dominik Shine R	+0.53	0.00	+0.15	+0.30	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	9:09
21 James van Riemsdyk L	+0.44	0.00	+0.10	+0.31	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	11:52
36 John Gibson G	+0.44	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+0.44	59:32
58 Emmitt Finnie C	+0.01	0.00	+0.18	-0.20	0.00	+0.01	+0.03	—	17:44
92 Marco Kasper C	0.00	0.00	+0.10	+0.09	-0.15	-0.01	-0.02	—	18:07
77 Simon Edvinsson D	-0.13	0.00	+0.09	-0.42	0.00	0.00	+0.20	—	24:12
53 Moritz Seider D	-0.17	0.00	+0.14	-0.44	0.00	0.00	+0.12	—	25:11
20 Albert Johansson D	-0.18	0.00	0.00	-0.25	0.00	0.00	+0.07	—	16:50
25 Jacob Bernard-Docker D	-0.20	0.00	0.00	-0.23	0.00	0.00	+0.03	—	14:14
23 Lucas Raymond L	-0.26	0.00	+0.11	-0.41	0.00	0.00	+0.04	—	19:52
15 Sheldon Dries C	-0.29	0.00	+0.07	-0.44	0.00	+0.01	+0.07	—	10:16
72 Justin Faulk D	-0.34	0.00	+0.02	-0.58	+0.15	0.00	+0.07	—	19:11
8 Ben Chiarot D	-0.49	0.00	+0.04	-0.62	0.00	0.00	+0.08	—	18:47
28 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R	-1.11	0.00	0.00	-1.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	10:27
27 Michael Rasmussen C	-1.31	0.00	0.00	-1.39	0.00	-0.02	+0.10	—	12:58
22 Mason Appleton C	-1.38	0.00	0.00	-1.38	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:36

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Rating	Points	Shots	On ice	Pen	FO	Other	GSAx	TOI
93 Gage Goncalves C	+3.45	+1.50	+0.45	+1.39	0.00	+0.01	+0.10	—	18:47
21 Brayden Point C	+2.74	+1.40	+0.15	+1.19	0.00	+0.01	-0.01	—	18:13
86 Nikita Kucherov R	+2.35	+1.25	+0.12	+1.15	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	—	18:33
29 Pontus Holmberg R	+1.73	0.00	+0.42	+1.35	0.00	0.00	-0.04	—	11:42
22 Oliver Bjorkstrand R	+1.71	0.00	+0.40	+1.31	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	13:38
51 Charle-Edouard D'Astous D	+1.43	0.00	+0.04	+1.13	+0.15	0.00	+0.10	—	18:41
59 Jake Guentzel C	+1.41	+1.50	+0.70	-0.79	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	15:56
37 Yanni Gourde C	+1.35	0.00	+0.03	+1.31	0.00	+0.01	0.00	—	15:25
88 Andrei Vasilevskiy G	+1.22	0.00	—	—	0.00	—	—	+1.22	60:00
67 Declan Carlile D	+1.14	0.00	0.00	+1.04	0.00	0.00	+0.10	—	13:52
27 Ryan McDonagh D	+0.72	0.00	+0.10	+0.46	0.00	0.00	+0.16	—	22:19
43 Darren Raddysh D	+0.46	0.00	+0.08	+0.32	0.00	0.00	+0.05	—	24:17
71 Anthony Cirelli C	+0.18	+0.70	0.00	-0.50	0.00	-0.02	0.00	—	15:33
77 Victor Hedman D	-0.14	0.00	+0.06	-0.17	0.00	0.00	-0.03	—	18:54
90 J.J. Moser D	-0.23	0.00	+0.01	-0.26	0.00	0.00	+0.01	—	21:09
10 Corey Perry R	-0.36	+0.55	+0.01	-0.91	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	12:21
38 Brandon Hagel L	-0.39	0.00	+0.05	-0.44	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	17:07
46 Scott Sabourin R	-0.44	0.00	+0.03	-0.47	0.00	0.00	0.00	—	9:47
28 Zemgus Girgensons C	-0.80	0.00	+0.02	-0.82	0.00	-0.01	0.00	—	11:46

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.