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Edmonton OilersEDM 2–7 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Edmonton OilersEDM 020 2 32
Dallas StarsDAL 322 7 27
Playoff odds, % Change
EDM -4.2
DAL +0.0
SJS +0.7
SEA +0.7
LAK +0.7
NSH +0.7
VGK +0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 7:51 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
1:23 DAL Jamie Benn (13) Miro Heiskanen (45), Sam Steel (20) · backhand xG 0.21 0–1 ▶
13:09 DAL Sam Steel (11) Matt Duchene (19), Mavrik Bourque (17) · tip-in xG 0.10 0–2 ▶
15:11 DAL Jason Robertson (35) Unassisted · snap xG 0.17 0–3 ▶
2nd Period
5:43 DAL Wyatt Johnston (35)PP Jason Robertson (41), Miro Heiskanen (46) · snap xG 0.23 0–4 ▶
6:15 DAL Jason Robertson (36) Wyatt Johnston (35), Miro Heiskanen (47) · snap xG 0.16 0–5 ▶
7:53 EDM Evan Bouchard (19) Kasperi Kapanen (8), Leon Draisaitl (61) · snap xG 0.14 1–5 ▶
11:59 EDM Jason Dickinson (7) Mattias Ekholm (29), Jack Roslovic (11) · tip-in xG 0.08 2–5 ▶
3rd Period
1:32 DAL Jamie Benn (14)PP Jason Robertson (42), Wyatt Johnston (36) · snap xG 0.14 2–6 ▶
18:57 DAL Matt Duchene (13) Colin Blackwell (8), Esa Lindell (21) · backhand xG 0.12 2–7 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

EDM 40%Deserve to win60% DAL
EDMDAL
2.91Expected goals3.48
2Goals (no shootout)7
1.40Expected goals, 5 on 52.52
51Shot attempts44
44Unblocked attempts36
32Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
15:11 EDM Goalie Goalie · Jarry −2.2 goals saved
3 goals on 0.83 xG, 10 shots on goal
3rd Period
15:40 EDM xG swing xG swing · Out-chanced DAL 1.29–0.04
In xG over 10 minutes, 5:40 to 15:40 of the 3rd; neither team scored

Shot map

EDM shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Miro Heiskanen: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 1:19) Thomas Harley: snap, 46 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:15) Arttu Hyry: tip-in, 27 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 2:24) Thomas Harley: snap, 57 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 2:28) Lian Bichsel: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:54) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 20 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 4:56) Michael Bunting: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:15) Evan Bouchard: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:49) Matt Savoie: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 8:37) Thomas Harley: snap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:50) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:42) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: snap, 39 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 11:39) Oskar Bäck: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 13:44) Thomas Harley: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 16:31) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:52) Connor Murphy: slap, 62 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:24) Zach Hyman: bat, 3 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 18:55) Evan Bouchard: snap, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:59) Connor McDavid: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 1:44) Tyler Myers: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 1:52) Evan Bouchard: snap, 70 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 2:06) Jake Walman: slap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 3:41) Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:09) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 5:06) Evan Bouchard: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:33) Jason Dickinson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:01) Jack Roslovic: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:09) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 8:47) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:24) Kasperi Kapanen: snap, 47 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 10:27) Oskar Bäck: deflected, 6 ft, xG 0.22 (P2 10:41) Esa Lindell: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:59) Wyatt Johnston: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 13:43) Darnell Nurse: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:06) Tyler Myers: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 15:52) Colin Blackwell: wrist, 12 ft, xG 0.27 (P2 16:11) Adam Henrique: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 16:53) Jason Robertson: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 17:07) Tristan Jarry: wrist, 169 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 17:09) Michael Bunting: slap, 33 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 18:10) Zach Hyman: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 19:00) Zach Hyman: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 19:41) Spencer Stastney: wrist, 110 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 0:53) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 22 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 1:11) Matt Savoie: tip-in, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 2:39) Jason Robertson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 3:33) Zach Hyman: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:56) Colin Blackwell: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:23) Adam Erne: snap, 26 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 4:26) Kasperi Kapanen: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:45) Jamie Benn: tip-in, 32 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 6:26) Matt Savoie: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:39) Jake Walman: snap, 72 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 6:43) Matt Savoie: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 6:45) Evan Bouchard: slap, 50 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 7:27) Vasily Podkolzin: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:35) Evan Bouchard: slap, 38 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 14:52) Evan Bouchard: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 14:59) Zach Hyman: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 15:21) Zach Hyman: snap, 4 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 15:22) Zach Hyman: deflected, 9 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:23) Vasily Podkolzin: backhand, 6 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 15:38) Vasily Podkolzin: backhand, 3 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 15:39) Matt Savoie: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:40) Sam Steel: wrist, 2 ft, xG 0.44 (P3 15:57) Trent Frederic: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:44) Adam Henrique: snap, 5 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 16:46) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:14) Jake Walman: slap, 51 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 17:37) Jake Walman: slap, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 18:02) Kasperi Kapanen: snap, 16 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:38) Jamie Benn: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 1:23) Sam Steel: GOAL, tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 13:09) Jason Robertson: GOAL, snap, 33 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 15:11) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 6 ft, xG 0.23 (P2 5:43) Jason Robertson: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.16 (P2 6:15) Evan Bouchard: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 7:53) Jason Dickinson: GOAL, tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 11:59) Jamie Benn: GOAL, snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 1:32) Matt Duchene: GOAL, backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 18:57)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Edmonton Oilers

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
18 Zach Hyman 000 -3 80.92 0017:57
97 Connor McDavid 000 -3 10.08 3017:45
29 Leon Draisaitl 011 +1 00.00 0017:36
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 000 -2 10.01 1017:32
92 Vasily Podkolzin 000 +1 60.54 6015:00
96 Jack Roslovic 011 +1 20.01 2014:50
42 Kasperi Kapanen 011 -1 40.13 2014:50
22 Matt Savoie 000 -2 50.27 0014:21
16 Jason Dickinson 101 0 20.09 5013:16
81 Josh Samanski 000 0 00.00 1011:53
10 Trent Frederic 000 0 10.04 0111:49
19 Adam Henrique 000 0 30.26 0111:17
Defense
2 Evan Bouchard 101 -2 80.45 0121:51
5 Connor Murphy 000 0 20.03 1120:18
25 Darnell Nurse 000 -1 10.03 3118:45
96 Jake Walman 000 -2 40.05 0218:17
14 Mattias Ekholm 011 +1 10.00 0017:51
24 Spencer Stastney 000 -2 10.00 0017:50
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Tristan Jarry 27720 .741 3.48 -3.52

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Wyatt Johnston 123 +2 60.69 1018:18
21 Jason Robertson 224 +2 50.38 0017:21
18 Sam Steel 112 +1 20.54 0016:49
22 Mavrik Bourque 011 +2 20.06 2016:16
58 Michael Bunting 000 -1 20.15 0016:14
95 Matt Duchene 112 +2 20.12 0015:46
14 Jamie Benn 202 0 30.39 4014:37
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 -1 20.04 1113:47
73 Adam Erne 000 0 10.02 1013:15
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 20.24 1011:37
15 Colin Blackwell 011 +1 30.29 2011:01
25 Arttu Hyry 000 0 20.04 1010:49
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 033 +3 20.04 0023:00
23 Esa Lindell 011 +4 10.01 0021:14
55 Thomas Harley 000 -1 40.11 0221:08
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 -2 10.00 0018:08
57 Tyler Myers 000 +1 20.34 0217:06
6 Lian Bichsel 000 +1 20.01 1216:00
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Jake Oettinger 32230 .938 2.91 +0.91

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Edmonton Oilers

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
42 Kasperi Kapanen R +0.75 +0.70 +0.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 14:50
16 Jason Dickinson C +0.73 +0.75 +0.06 -0.07 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:16
19 Adam Henrique C +0.67 0.00 +0.17 +0.29 +0.15 +0.01 +0.05 — 11:17
29 Leon Draisaitl C +0.61 +0.55 0.00 +0.10 -0.08 +0.04 0.00 — 17:36
14 Mattias Ekholm D +0.40 +0.70 0.00 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:51
5 Connor Murphy D +0.28 0.00 +0.02 +0.25 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:18
81 Josh Samanski C +0.21 0.00 0.00 +0.23 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 11:53
28 Jack Roslovic C +0.15 +0.55 +0.01 -0.42 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 — 14:47
10 Trent Frederic C 0.00 0.00 +0.02 -0.05 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 11:49
2 Evan Bouchard D -0.19 +0.75 +0.29 -1.26 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 21:51
24 Spencer Stastney D -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.16 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 17:50
92 Vasily Podkolzin R -0.33 0.00 +0.35 -0.62 0.00 0.00 -0.06 — 14:44
18 Zach Hyman L -0.38 0.00 +0.60 -1.12 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 17:57
96 Jake Walman D -0.67 0.00 +0.03 -0.76 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 18:17
93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C -0.87 0.00 +0.01 -0.86 0.00 -0.04 +0.02 — 17:32
22 Matt Savoie C -0.91 0.00 +0.18 -1.04 0.00 +0.01 -0.06 — 14:21
25 Darnell Nurse D -0.95 0.00 +0.02 -0.85 -0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 18:45
97 Connor McDavid C -1.27 0.00 +0.05 -1.03 -0.22 -0.01 -0.06 — 17:45
35 Tristan Jarry G -3.52 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.52 60:00

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
21 Jason Robertson L +4.20 +2.90 +0.24 +1.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 17:17
53 Wyatt Johnston C +3.36 +2.00 +0.45 +0.90 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 18:18
4 Miro Heiskanen D +2.99 +1.80 +0.03 +1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 23:00
18 Sam Steel C +2.40 +1.30 +0.35 +0.78 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 16:49
14 Jamie Benn L +1.67 +1.50 +0.25 -0.12 0.00 -0.01 +0.04 — 14:37
15 Colin Blackwell C +1.59 +0.70 +0.19 +0.70 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 11:01
22 Mavrik Bourque C +1.49 +0.55 +0.04 +0.88 0.00 +0.02 0.00 — 16:16
95 Matt Duchene C +1.44 +1.45 +0.08 -0.07 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:46
23 Esa Lindell D +1.31 +0.55 +0.01 +0.95 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 21:14
6 Lian Bichsel D +1.15 0.00 +0.01 +1.08 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 16:00
57 Tyler Myers D +1.11 0.00 +0.22 +0.66 +0.15 0.00 +0.08 — 17:06
29 Jake Oettinger G +0.91 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.91 60:00
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.39 0.00 +0.15 +0.38 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 11:37
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.21 0.00 +0.03 -0.07 +0.22 -0.03 +0.05 — 13:47
55 Thomas Harley D +0.15 0.00 +0.07 +0.17 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 21:08
73 Adam Erne L +0.10 0.00 +0.01 +0.06 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 13:15
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.08 0.00 +0.03 -0.02 +0.08 +0.02 -0.02 — 10:49
58 Michael Bunting L -0.13 0.00 +0.10 -0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 16:14
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.51 0.00 0.00 -0.66 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:08

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.