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Colorado AvalancheCOL 5–1 Final Seattle KrakenSEA

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Colorado AvalancheCOL 311 5 26
Seattle KrakenSEA 010 1 29
Playoff odds, % Change
SEA -6.8
COL +0.0
SJS +1.5
EDM +1.1
VGK +1.1
LAK +1.1
NSH +1.0

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 12, 2026 9:56 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:45 COL Martin Necas (30) Devon Toews (14), Nathan MacKinnon (62) · wrist xG 0.11 1–0 ▶
12:54 COL Nathan MacKinnon (44) Martin Necas (49), Devon Toews (15) · wrist xG 0.05 2–0 ▶
18:48 COL Nicolas Roy (7)PP Brock Nelson (25), Nathan MacKinnon (63) · wrist xG 0.07 3–0 ▶
2nd Period
13:36 SEA Ryker Evans (7)SH Chandler Stephenson (26) · wrist xG 0.13 3–1 ▶
17:11 COL Nazem Kadri (13) Sam Malinski (26), Nathan MacKinnon (64) · tip-in xG 0.06 4–1 ▶
3rd Period
12:41 COL Joel Kiviranta (3) Josh Manson (22), Parker Kelly (11) · deflected xG 0.12 5–1 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

COL 59%Deserve to win41% SEA
COLSEA
2.88Expected goals2.37
5Goals (no shootout)1
2.36Expected goals, 5 on 51.92
57Shot attempts66
44Unblocked attempts47
26Shots on goal29

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
20:00 SEA Goalie change Goalie change · Grubauer in for Daccord
The start of the 2nd; Daccord had allowed 3 goals on 15 shots (1.49 xG)
3rd Period
12:40 COL No shift No shift · Brindley, 11:27 on the bench
No shift from 2:39 to 14:06 of the 3rd; 10 shifts (8:04) before that

Shot map

COL shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ SEA shoots
Cale Makar: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 0:18) Josh Manson: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 0:34) Joel Kiviranta: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 0:42) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 1:04) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 1:18) Nazem Kadri: snap, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 3:33) Brock Nelson: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 4:58) Brock Nelson: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.42 (P1 5:01) Valeri Nichushkin: wrist, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 5:02) Adam Larsson: snap, 43 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 6:01) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:02) Devon Toews: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 7:41) Sam Malinski: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 8:10) Vince Dunn: wrist, 183 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:24) Zakhar Bardakov: backhand, 28 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:26) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 9:43) Parker Kelly: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:51) Brett Kulak: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 10:59) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:43) Zakhar Bardakov: wrist, 78 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 12:17) Eeli Tolvanen: snap, 15 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 13:23) Eeli Tolvanen: wrap-around, 4 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:25) Matty Beniers: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 15:06) Jordan Eberle: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.37 (P1 15:09) Frederick Gaudreau: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:11) Brandon Montour: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 16:54) Adam Larsson: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 17:45) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:20) Jamie Oleksiak: wrist, 108 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 18:51) Chandler Stephenson: wrist, 168 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:17) Gavin Brindley: backhand, 19 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:31) Cale Makar: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 19:40) Jared McCann: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 1:01) Matty Beniers: backhand, 9 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 1:02) Brandon Montour: wrist, 61 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 2:06) Vince Dunn: wrist, 27 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 2:44) Frederick Gaudreau: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 3:05) Jared McCann: poke, 6 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 4:40) Vince Dunn: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 6:37) Brandon Montour: backhand, 32 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 7:08) Berkly Catton: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 7:10) Eeli Tolvanen: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 7:33) Ben Meyers: backhand, 7 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 7:50) Ryan Lindgren: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 8:15) Berkly Catton: wrist, 16 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 9:02) Cale Makar: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 9:11) Brandon Montour: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 10:25) Sam Malinski: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 10:45) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 83 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 11:35) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 12:16) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 13:14) Jordan Eberle: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 14:33) Brock Nelson: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 19:17) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 19:22) Brock Nelson: wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 19:23) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 6 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 19:27) Eeli Tolvanen: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 19:45) Ryan Lindgren: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 19:50) Jordan Eberle: wrist, 15 ft, xG 0.16 (P3 0:50) Brent Burns: slap, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:11) Sam Malinski: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 1:52) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 2:01) Vince Dunn: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 3:17) Vince Dunn: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:22) Adam Larsson: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 3:36) Jared McCann: wrist, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 3:40) Brent Burns: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 4:43) Ryan Winterton: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:56) Vince Dunn: slap, 52 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 5:00) Vince Dunn: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 5:19) Josh Manson: wrist, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 6:12) Jack Drury: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 7:18) Adam Larsson: wrist, 72 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:38) Brock Nelson: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.19 (P3 9:25) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 68 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 10:52) Berkly Catton: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 11:00) Frederick Gaudreau: wrist, 21 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 11:53) Sam Malinski: wrist, 46 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:02) Sam Malinski: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 13:19) Devon Toews: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:22) Eeli Tolvanen: tip-in, 24 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 15:46) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 17:04) Jacob Melanson: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:18) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 37 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 18:48) Shane Wright: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 19:46) Martin Necas: GOAL, wrist, 10 ft, xG 0.11 (P1 3:45) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, wrist, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 12:54) Nicolas Roy: GOAL, wrist, 9 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 18:48) Ryker Evans: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.13 (P2 13:36) Nazem Kadri: GOAL, tip-in, 18 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 17:11) Joel Kiviranta: GOAL, deflected, 11 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 12:41)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 112 +3 20.11 1122:32
29 Nathan MacKinnon 134 +3 40.16 0020:58
91 Nazem Kadri 101 +3 40.30 1119:26
11 Brock Nelson 011 0 111.18 0119:18
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 -1 10.05 1018:19
10 Nicolas Roy 101 -1 20.15 1116:56
18 Jack Drury 000 +1 10.06 1215:36
22 Joel Kiviranta 101 +1 30.14 0014:20
17 Parker Kelly 011 +1 10.03 1013:11
54 Gavin Brindley 000 -1 20.11 1009:20
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 0 30.04 3108:04
Defense
8 Cale Makar 000 +1 40.26 1221:01
7 Devon Toews 022 0 40.04 1019:41
70 Sam Malinski 011 +2 50.17 2219:09
27 Brett Kulak 000 +2 10.03 1118:05
42 Josh Manson 011 +1 40.03 1315:48
84 Brent Burns 000 0 40.03 0214:45
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 0 10.00 1209:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 29128 .966 2.37 +1.37

Seattle Kraken

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
7 Jordan Eberle 000 -2 50.58 0117:39
9 Chandler Stephenson 011 -1 20.02 0017:27
10 Matty Beniers 000 -2 20.04 1017:19
27 Berkly Catton 000 0 40.11 0016:21
17 Eeli Tolvanen 000 0 60.36 0116:00
89 Frederick Gaudreau 000 -2 40.17 0015:58
19 Jared McCann 000 -2 50.17 1015:49
84 Kaapo Kakko 000 0 00.00 0114:44
51 Shane Wright 000 0 20.05 0114:28
59 Ben Meyers 000 0 40.09 4013:12
26 Ryan Winterton 000 0 30.20 1010:53
63 Jacob Melanson 000 -1 10.03 4009:31
Defense
62 Brandon Montour 000 0 50.08 1121:31
6 Adam Larsson 000 -2 50.06 1021:14
55 Ryan Lindgren 000 0 30.04 2320:26
29 Vince Dunn 000 -2 110.25 0019:19
4 Jamie Oleksiak 000 -2 20.00 1217:19
41 Ryker Evans 101 0 20.13 0016:30
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Joey Daccord 15312 .800 1.49 -1.51
Philipp Grubauer 1129 .818 1.39 -0.61

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +3.25 +2.40 +0.11 +0.80 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 — 20:58
11 Brock Nelson C +2.25 +0.70 +0.77 +0.76 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 19:18
88 Martin Necas C +2.10 +1.45 +0.07 +0.25 +0.30 0.00 +0.03 — 22:32
7 Devon Toews D +1.99 +1.25 +0.02 +0.90 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 19:41
41 Scott Wedgewood G +1.37 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.37 60:00
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.27 +0.75 +0.20 +0.31 0.00 -0.02 +0.03 — 19:26
8 Cale Makar D +1.26 0.00 +0.17 +1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:01
94 Joel Kiviranta L +1.11 +0.75 +0.09 +0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:20
70 Sam Malinski D +1.04 +0.70 +0.11 +0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:09
17 Parker Kelly C +1.00 +0.55 +0.02 +0.31 +0.15 -0.01 -0.02 — 13:11
42 Josh Manson D +0.98 +0.70 +0.02 +0.11 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 15:48
13 Valeri Nichushkin R +0.72 0.00 +0.03 +0.73 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 18:19
10 Nicolas Roy C +0.68 +0.75 +0.10 -0.13 0.00 -0.05 +0.01 — 16:56
84 Brent Burns D +0.28 0.00 +0.02 +0.35 -0.15 0.00 +0.06 — 14:45
18 Jack Drury C +0.27 0.00 +0.04 +0.07 0.00 +0.06 +0.10 — 15:36
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.11 0.00 +0.07 +0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 9:20
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.03 0.00 +0.03 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 8:04
27 Brett Kulak D -0.07 0.00 +0.02 -0.14 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 18:05
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 9:31

Seattle Kraken

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
41 Ryker Evans D +0.86 +0.75 +0.08 +0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:30
9 Chandler Stephenson C +0.66 +0.70 +0.01 -0.10 0.00 +0.05 0.00 — 17:27
27 Berkly Catton C +0.49 0.00 +0.07 +0.25 +0.15 +0.01 0.00 — 16:21
84 Kaapo Kakko R +0.36 0.00 0.00 +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 14:44
51 Shane Wright C +0.31 0.00 +0.03 +0.25 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 14:28
59 Ben Meyers C +0.27 0.00 +0.06 +0.21 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 13:12
20 Eeli Tolvanen R +0.25 0.00 +0.24 -0.01 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 16:00
26 Ryan Winterton C +0.17 0.00 +0.13 +0.02 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 10:53
29 Vince Dunn D 0.00 0.00 +0.16 -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 19:19
89 Frederick Gaudreau C -0.01 0.00 +0.11 -0.10 0.00 -0.02 0.00 — 15:58
6 Adam Larsson D -0.24 0.00 +0.04 -0.11 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 21:14
24 Jamie Oleksiak D -0.27 0.00 0.00 -0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 17:19
63 Jacob Melanson R -0.28 0.00 +0.02 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 9:31
55 Ryan Lindgren D -0.43 0.00 +0.02 -0.57 0.00 0.00 +0.11 — 20:26
31 Philipp Grubauer G -0.61 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -0.61 39:43
7 Jordan Eberle R -0.94 0.00 +0.38 -1.22 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 17:39
62 Brandon Montour D -0.97 0.00 +0.05 -1.03 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:31
19 Jared McCann L -1.16 0.00 +0.11 -1.25 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 15:49
10 Matty Beniers C -1.29 0.00 +0.03 -1.34 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 17:19
35 Joey Daccord G -1.51 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -1.51 20:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.