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Utah MammothUTA 6–3 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Monday, March 16, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Utah MammothUTA 114 6 22
Dallas StarsDAL 111 3 30
Playoff odds, % Change
UTA +5.3
DAL +0.0
SEA -1.1
SJS -0.9
LAK -0.8
EDM -0.6
WPG -0.5

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 16, 2026 8:08 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
6:17 DAL Sam Steel (12) Jamie Benn (16), Esa Lindell (22) · snap xG 0.21 0–1 ▶
12:11 UTA Clayton Keller (20) Mikhail Sergachev (34) · snap xG 0.02 1–1 ▶
2nd Period
7:20 UTA Nate Schmidt (5) Logan Cooley (13) · snap xG 0.01 2–1 ▶
15:34 DAL Wyatt Johnston (37) Miro Heiskanen (48), Jason Robertson (44) · tip-in xG 0.08 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
4:16 UTA Jack McBain (7)SH Unassisted · backhand xG 0.23 3–2 ▶
8:05 UTA Kailer Yamamoto (10) Alexander Kerfoot (3) · backhand xG 0.23 4–2 ▶
16:06 UTA Michael Carcone (14)PP JJ Peterka (19) · snap xG 0.08 5–2 ▶
19:20 UTA Lawson Crouse (17)EN Nick Schmaltz (36) · snap xG 0.57 6–2 ▶
19:56 DAL Adam Erne (5) Arttu Hyry (1), Tyler Myers (8) · snap xG 0.18 6–3 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

UTA 30%Deserve to win70% DAL
UTADAL
2.50Expected goals3.05
6Goals (no shootout)3
1.49Expected goals, 5 on 52.12
46Shot attempts47
28Unblocked attempts41
22Shots on goal30

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
8:05 DAL Goalie Goalie · DeSmith −2.4 goals saved
4 goals on 1.60 xG, 18 shots on goal
18:07 DAL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled DeSmith, down 5–2
With 1:53 left; UTA scored at 19:20 of the 3rd (6–2)

Shot map

UTA shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Barrett Hayton: snap, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 2:12) Nate Schmidt: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 3:49) Nils Lundkvist: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 4:41) Colin Blackwell: snap, 9 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 4:42) Lian Bichsel: slap, 58 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 5:36) Nate Schmidt: snap, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:59) Tyler Myers: snap, 7 ft, xG 0.22 (P1 8:22) Michael Bunting: slap, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 9:25) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 9:54) Justin Hryckowian: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 9:59) Logan Cooley: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 10:52) Jamie Benn: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 13:32) Jamie Benn: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 13:34) Thomas Harley: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 14:02) Jason Robertson: wrap-around, 6 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 15:49) Matt Duchene: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 16:13) Tyler Myers: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 19:53) Matt Duchene: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 0:37) Mavrik Bourque: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:01) Lian Bichsel: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 4:10) Adam Erne: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:13) Jamie Benn: slap, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 4:29) Jack McBain: deflected, 5 ft, xG 0.20 (P2 6:13) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:02) Kailer Yamamoto: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:30) Jamie Benn: backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.09 (P2 9:09) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 9:10) Thomas Harley: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 11:07) Clayton Keller: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:26) Sam Steel: tip-in, 84 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 12:12) Logan Cooley: backhand, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 12:29) Ian Cole: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 12:38) Barrett Hayton: tip-in, 16 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 12:44) Thomas Harley: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 14:26) Logan Cooley: backhand, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:58) Tyler Myers: snap, 69 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 16:49) Michael Bunting: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:24) Wyatt Johnston: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 18:17) MacKenzie Weegar: snap, 49 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:31) Mikhail Sergachev: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 18:37) Barrett Hayton: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 0:15) Dylan Guenther: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:51) Jason Robertson: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 3:44) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 21 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 5:04) Logan Cooley: tip-in, 19 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 6:40) Michael Carcone: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 7:45) Jason Robertson: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 9:04) Clayton Keller: slap, 43 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 9:58) Alexander Kerfoot: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 12:16) Jamie Benn: snap, 24 ft, xG 0.17 (P3 12:51) Jack McBain: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 14:05) Miro Heiskanen: wrist, 26 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 15:24) Justin Hryckowian: snap, 6 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 15:30) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 15:31) Esa Lindell: snap, 53 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 15:42) Thomas Harley: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 15:57) Nick Schmaltz: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 17:12) Nils Lundkvist: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 18:57) Tyler Myers: wrist, 32 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 19:39) Tyler Myers: slap, 56 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 19:42) Sam Steel: GOAL, snap, 18 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 6:17) Clayton Keller: GOAL, snap, 34 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 12:11) Nate Schmidt: GOAL, snap, 45 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 7:20) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 15:34) Jack McBain: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 4:16) Kailer Yamamoto: GOAL, backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.23 (P3 8:05) Michael Carcone: GOAL, snap, 30 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:06) Lawson Crouse: GOAL, snap, 68 ft, xG 0.57 (P3 19:20) Adam Erne: GOAL, snap, 20 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 19:56)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Utah Mammoth

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
8 Nick Schmaltz 011 +1 30.10 0021:03
9 Clayton Keller 101 +1 50.13 0020:13
67 Lawson Crouse 101 +1 40.57 5018:12
27 Barrett Hayton 000 0 50.17 1016:57
92 Logan Cooley 011 0 40.26 0015:37
14 Alexander Kerfoot 011 +1 10.01 2115:23
11 Dylan Guenther 000 0 20.09 2014:51
53 Michael Carcone 101 -1 50.31 5014:22
22 Jack McBain 101 +1 30.49 1013:23
10 JJ Peterka 011 0 00.00 0011:42
56 Kailer Yamamoto 101 +1 20.24 0010:00
13 Brandon Tanev 000 0 10.00 2107:45
Defense
52 MacKenzie Weegar 000 +4 40.02 2021:08
98 Mikhail Sergachev 011 +1 20.03 2120:29
28 Ian Cole 000 -2 10.01 1118:51
88 Nate Schmidt 101 +2 40.06 2118:28
6 John Marino 000 +1 00.00 0018:21
5 Sean Durzi 000 -2 00.00 1017:43
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Vitek Vanecek 30327 .900 3.05 +0.05

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
53 Wyatt Johnston 101 -1 30.25 2220:24
21 Jason Robertson 011 -1 50.32 1019:56
95 Matt Duchene 000 -2 30.14 2119:22
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 0 10.06 2018:07
18 Sam Steel 101 0 20.21 2016:57
14 Jamie Benn 011 +1 50.60 2116:31
58 Michael Bunting 000 -2 20.03 1013:28
15 Colin Blackwell 000 -2 10.02 5112:51
49 Justin Hryckowian 000 -1 30.43 0112:48
25 Arttu Hyry 011 0 00.00 0011:31
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 00.00 0010:34
73 Adam Erne 101 0 20.23 1007:34
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 +1 30.20 0225:08
23 Esa Lindell 011 +2 10.04 2122:03
55 Thomas Harley 000 -3 50.14 1221:15
57 Tyler Myers 011 +1 50.32 0316:52
6 Lian Bichsel 000 0 30.02 4015:50
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 -4 30.04 1214:32
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Casey DeSmith 21516 .762 1.93 -3.07

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Utah Mammoth

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
22 Jack McBain C +1.14 +0.75 +0.32 +0.08 0.00 -0.01 0.00 — 13:23
98 Mikhail Sergachev D +1.10 +0.70 +0.02 +0.33 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:29
53 Michael Carcone L +0.97 +0.75 +0.20 +0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:22
67 Lawson Crouse L +0.94 +0.75 +0.37 -0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 18:12
56 Kailer Yamamoto R +0.75 +0.75 +0.16 -0.13 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 10:00
92 Logan Cooley C +0.72 +0.70 +0.17 -0.08 0.00 -0.05 -0.02 — 15:37
77 JJ Peterka R +0.69 +0.70 0.00 +0.03 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 11:42
88 Nate Schmidt D +0.45 +0.75 +0.04 -0.37 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 18:28
9 Clayton Keller R +0.37 +0.75 +0.08 -0.58 +0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 20:13
27 Barrett Hayton C +0.36 0.00 +0.11 +0.37 -0.15 +0.07 -0.04 — 16:57
8 Nick Schmaltz C +0.30 +0.70 +0.07 -0.42 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 21:03
52 MacKenzie Weegar D +0.20 0.00 +0.01 +0.21 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 21:08
15 Alexander Kerfoot C +0.12 +0.70 +0.01 -0.66 0.00 +0.02 +0.05 — 15:23
6 John Marino D +0.12 0.00 0.00 +0.27 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 18:21
41 Vitek Vanecek G +0.05 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.05 59:32
13 Brandon Tanev L -0.06 0.00 0.00 -0.09 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 7:45
11 Dylan Guenther R -0.31 0.00 +0.06 -0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:51
28 Ian Cole D -0.41 0.00 0.00 -0.76 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 18:51
50 Sean Durzi D -1.22 0.00 0.00 -1.05 -0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 17:43

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
4 Miro Heiskanen D +1.97 +0.70 +0.13 +1.06 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 25:08
23 Esa Lindell D +1.85 +0.55 +0.03 +1.23 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 22:03
53 Wyatt Johnston C +1.60 +0.75 +0.16 +0.61 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 20:24
14 Jamie Benn L +1.57 +0.70 +0.39 +0.44 0.00 -0.01 +0.05 — 16:31
21 Jason Robertson L +1.32 +0.55 +0.21 +0.60 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 19:56
57 Tyler Myers D +1.18 +0.55 +0.21 +0.27 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 16:52
73 Adam Erne L +1.08 +0.75 +0.15 +0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 7:34
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.91 +0.70 0.00 +0.19 0.00 +0.04 -0.02 — 11:31
22 Mavrik Bourque C +0.69 0.00 +0.04 +0.51 +0.15 -0.01 0.00 — 18:07
6 Lian Bichsel D +0.66 0.00 +0.01 +0.50 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 15:50
18 Sam Steel C +0.50 +0.75 +0.14 -0.20 -0.15 0.00 -0.04 — 16:57
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.35 0.00 +0.28 -0.01 0.00 +0.01 +0.07 — 12:48
10 Oskar Bäck C +0.31 0.00 0.00 +0.30 0.00 +0.01 0.00 — 10:34
95 Matt Duchene C -0.07 0.00 +0.09 -0.11 0.00 -0.04 -0.01 — 19:22
58 Michael Bunting L -0.13 0.00 +0.02 +0.01 -0.15 0.00 0.00 — 13:28
15 Colin Blackwell C -0.44 0.00 +0.01 -0.45 0.00 -0.01 +0.01 — 12:51
55 Thomas Harley D -0.63 0.00 +0.09 -0.78 0.00 0.00 +0.06 — 21:15
5 Nils Lundkvist D -0.76 0.00 +0.03 -0.88 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 14:32
1 Casey DeSmith G -3.07 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -3.07 58:40

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.