hockeystats.io

Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 7–2 Final Colorado AvalancheCOL

Monday, March 16, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 421 7 20
Colorado AvalancheCOL 200 2 27
Playoff odds, % Change
PIT +4.9
COL +0.0
OTT -1.1
BOS -0.7
CBJ -0.7
PHI -0.6
NYI -0.6

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 16, 2026 9:11 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
3:01 PIT Evgeni Malkin (14) Bryan Rust (28), Noel Acciari (10) · backhand xG 0.08 1–0 ▶
4:08 COL Nathan MacKinnon (45) Martin Necas (50), Cale Makar (49) · wrist xG 0.04 1–1 ▶
4:23 PIT Anthony Mantha (26) Erik Karlsson (41) · backhand xG 0.14 2–1 ▶
13:00 PIT Evgeni Malkin (15) Egor Chinakhov (14), Parker Wotherspoon (20) · wrist xG 0.15 3–1 ▶
13:43 PIT Elmer Soderblom (3) Connor Dewar (12), Erik Karlsson (42) · snap xG 0.12 4–1 ▶
14:21 COL Brent Burns (10) Gavin Brindley (7), Josh Manson (23) · snap xG 0.01 4–2 ▶
2nd Period
10:36 PIT Erik Karlsson (7) Ryan Shea (24) · wrist xG 0.01 5–2 ▶
16:20 PIT Bryan Rust (25)PP Evgeni Malkin (35), Rickard Rakell (19) · wrist xG 0.21 6–2 ▶
3rd Period
9:06 PIT Noel Acciari (9) Elmer Soderblom (2), Connor Dewar (13) · wrist xG 0.22 7–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

PIT 30%Deserve to win70% COL
PITCOL
2.31Expected goals3.52
7Goals (no shootout)2
1.61Expected goals, 5 on 52.90
40Shot attempts68
28Unblocked attempts46
20Shots on goal27

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

1st Period
13:00 COL Goalie Goalie · Wedgewood −2.4 goals saved
3 goals on 0.61 xG, 5 shots on goal
13:00 COL Goalie change Goalie change · Blackwood in for Wedgewood
13:00 of the 1st; Wedgewood had allowed 3 goals on 5 shots (0.61 xG)
2nd Period
16:20 COL Goalie Goalie · Blackwood −2.1 goals saved
3 goals on 0.87 xG, 9 shots on goal

Shot map

PIT shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ COL shoots
Kris Letang: slap, 57 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 3:19) Jack Drury: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 3:32) Evgeni Malkin: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 3:56) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 23 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 5:41) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:01) Brock Nelson: slap, 24 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 6:12) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 6:29) Martin Necas: slap, 35 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:49) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 6:56) Cale Makar: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 7:12) Sam Malinski: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 8:04) Egor Chinakhov: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 10:34) Sam Malinski: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 11:20) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 29 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 11:27) Sam Malinski: wrist, 51 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 11:42) Brock Nelson: wrist, 29 ft, xG 0.17 (P1 12:02) Brock Nelson: wrist, 11 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 12:15) Devon Toews: wrist, 55 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 13:14) Connor Dewar: tip-in, 9 ft, xG 0.09 (P1 13:42) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 20 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 14:04) Nicolas Roy: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.34 (P1 16:48) Brent Burns: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 18:58) Nicolas Roy: backhand, 17 ft, xG 0.03 (P1 18:59) Brent Burns: wrist, 71 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 19:08) Bryan Rust: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 0:27) Martin Necas: wrist, 31 ft, xG 0.12 (P2 3:26) Cale Makar: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:57) Cale Makar: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 4:15) Erik Karlsson: slap, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 7:29) Ilya Solovyov: wrist, 39 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 9:14) Brent Burns: wrist, 48 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 9:29) Brent Burns: snap, 12 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 9:31) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 11:06) Martin Necas: backhand, 16 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 11:47) Gavin Brindley: wrist, 49 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 12:55) Rickard Rakell: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.18 (P2 13:42) Bryan Rust: snap, 31 ft, xG 0.11 (P2 14:06) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 50 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 14:09) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 58 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 14:46) Justin Brazeau: wrist, 33 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 18:40) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 40 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 0:11) Nazem Kadri: wrist, 20 ft, xG 0.11 (P3 0:55) Brock Nelson: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 1:02) Brock Nelson: wrist, 5 ft, xG 0.34 (P3 1:04) Brock Nelson: wrist, 4 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 1:05) Justin Brazeau: tip-in, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 1:48) Valeri Nichushkin: snap, 8 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 2:56) Gavin Brindley: tip-in, 21 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:57) Connor Clifton: slap, 64 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:48) Erik Karlsson: wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 7:25) Rickard Rakell: tip-in, 5 ft, xG 0.18 (P3 7:32) Devon Toews: wrist, 25 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 7:50) Martin Necas: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 7:59) Cale Makar: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 10:12) Josh Manson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 11:50) Zakhar Bardakov: snap, 13 ft, xG 0.29 (P3 12:18) Cale Makar: wrist, 47 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 12:53) Cale Makar: slap, 63 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:58) Nazem Kadri: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 13:16) Nathan MacKinnon: wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 13:42) Parker Wotherspoon: slap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 14:04) Kris Letang: slap, 40 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 14:29) Josh Manson: wrist, 54 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 14:43) Noel Acciari: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 15:44) Egor Chinakhov: wrist, 44 ft, xG 0.01 (P3 19:21) Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, backhand, 24 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 3:01) Nathan MacKinnon: GOAL, wrist, 42 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 4:08) Anthony Mantha: GOAL, backhand, 11 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 4:23) Evgeni Malkin: GOAL, wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P1 13:00) Elmer Soderblom: GOAL, snap, 9 ft, xG 0.12 (P1 13:43) Brent Burns: GOAL, snap, 67 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 14:21) Erik Karlsson: GOAL, wrist, 60 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 10:36) Bryan Rust: GOAL, wrist, 24 ft, xG 0.21 (P2 16:20) Noel Acciari: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.22 (P3 9:06)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Pittsburgh Penguins

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
59 Egor Chinakhov 011 0 20.18 0217:09
17 Bryan Rust 112 +1 40.33 0017:05
52 Noel Acciari 112 +3 20.43 0416:36
67 Rickard Rakell 011 +1 40.38 1116:23
71 Evgeni Malkin 213 +1 30.29 0016:18
19 Connor Dewar 022 +3 10.09 0216:12
18 Tommy Novak 000 0 00.00 0315:29
39 Anthony Mantha 101 0 30.14 0114:57
81 Ben Kindel 000 0 10.00 2113:57
16 Justin Brazeau 000 0 20.07 3011:52
41 Ville Koivunen 000 0 10.00 0110:09
25 Elmer Soderblom 112 +3 10.12 1110:00
Defense
6 Ryan Shea 011 +1 10.00 1023:39
65 Erik Karlsson 123 +2 60.08 0021:44
29 Parker Wotherspoon 011 +2 20.08 3120:48
58 Kris Letang 000 0 40.04 1120:14
75 Connor Clifton 000 +2 20.03 5116:07
7 Ilya Solovyov 000 +1 10.05 2013:21
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Arturs Silovs 27225 .926 3.52 +1.52

Colorado Avalanche

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
88 Martin Necas 011 -1 60.32 2024:08
43 Valeri Nichushkin 000 -2 30.18 0022:40
29 Nathan MacKinnon 101 -1 80.22 0222:39
91 Nazem Kadri 000 0 50.26 0120:18
11 Brock Nelson 000 -1 71.06 1120:16
10 Nicolas Roy 000 -2 30.37 1015:28
17 Parker Kelly 000 0 10.00 3113:45
18 Jack Drury 000 -1 10.04 0113:31
54 Gavin Brindley 011 -1 30.10 1010:20
22 Joel Kiviranta 000 -1 00.00 1010:03
93 Zakhar Bardakov 000 -2 10.29 1008:10
Defense
8 Cale Makar 011 -1 120.23 0221:31
7 Devon Toews 000 -2 20.03 0117:35
27 Brett Kulak 000 -1 10.00 0016:45
42 Josh Manson 011 -1 40.09 1216:43
84 Brent Burns 101 0 50.25 0015:18
70 Sam Malinski 000 -1 50.07 0115:00
3 Nick Blankenburg 000 -2 10.00 0011:10
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Scott Wedgewood 532 .400 0.61 -2.39
Mackenzie Blackwood 15411 .733 1.71 -2.29

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
55 Noel Acciari C +2.73 +1.30 +0.28 +0.95 0.00 0.00 +0.20 — 16:36
65 Erik Karlsson D +2.37 +2.00 +0.05 +0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 21:44
19 Connor Dewar C +2.35 +1.25 +0.06 +0.95 0.00 +0.01 +0.08 — 16:12
25 Elmer Soderblom L +2.29 +1.45 +0.08 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 10:00
71 Evgeni Malkin C +2.00 +2.20 +0.19 -0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:18
17 Bryan Rust R +1.55 +1.45 +0.21 -0.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 17:05
37 Arturs Silovs G +1.37 0.00 — — -0.15 — — +1.52 60:00
28 Parker Wotherspoon D +0.92 +0.55 +0.05 +0.34 0.00 0.00 -0.03 — 20:48
67 Rickard Rakell R +0.81 +0.55 +0.25 -0.04 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:23
75 Connor Clifton D +0.72 0.00 +0.02 +0.65 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:07
39 Anthony Mantha R +0.58 +0.75 +0.09 -0.12 -0.15 0.00 +0.01 — 14:57
7 Ilya Solovyov D +0.32 0.00 +0.03 +0.30 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 13:21
59 Egor Chinakhov R -0.10 +0.70 +0.12 -1.01 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 17:09
18 Tommy Novak C -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.36 0.00 -0.01 +0.15 — 15:29
41 Ville Koivunen R -0.74 0.00 0.00 -0.64 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 10:09
5 Ryan Shea D -1.04 +0.70 0.00 -1.87 +0.15 0.00 -0.02 — 23:39
16 Justin Brazeau R -1.05 0.00 +0.05 -1.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:52
81 Ben Kindel C -1.31 0.00 0.00 -1.34 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:57
58 Kris Letang D -1.32 0.00 +0.03 -1.38 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 20:14

Colorado Avalanche

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
8 Cale Makar D +1.94 +0.55 +0.15 +1.14 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 21:31
84 Brent Burns D +1.74 +0.75 +0.16 +0.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 15:18
11 Brock Nelson C +1.74 0.00 +0.69 +1.04 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 20:16
91 Nazem Kadri C +1.69 0.00 +0.17 +1.47 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 20:18
10 Nicolas Roy C +1.57 0.00 +0.24 +1.35 0.00 +0.02 -0.04 — 15:28
42 Josh Manson D +1.03 +0.55 +0.06 +0.24 +0.15 0.00 +0.04 — 16:43
7 Devon Toews D +0.85 0.00 +0.02 +0.59 +0.15 0.00 +0.09 — 17:35
88 Martin Necas C +0.75 +0.70 +0.21 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 24:08
54 Gavin Brindley C +0.64 +0.70 +0.06 -0.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:20
29 Nathan MacKinnon C +0.63 +0.75 +0.15 -0.34 0.00 0.00 +0.08 — 22:39
27 Brett Kulak D +0.20 0.00 0.00 +0.05 +0.15 0.00 0.00 — 16:45
17 Parker Kelly C +0.19 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 -0.01 +0.03 — 13:45
18 Jack Drury C -0.10 0.00 +0.03 -0.03 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 13:31
94 Joel Kiviranta L -0.14 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 10:03
70 Sam Malinski D -0.17 0.00 +0.04 -0.26 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 15:00
93 Zakhar Bardakov C -0.18 0.00 +0.19 -0.33 0.00 0.00 -0.04 — 8:10
13 Valeri Nichushkin R -0.37 0.00 +0.12 -0.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 22:40
37 Nick Blankenburg D -0.95 0.00 0.00 -0.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 11:10
39 Mackenzie Blackwood G -2.29 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.29 47:00
41 Scott Wedgewood G -2.39 0.00 — — 0.00 — — -2.39 13:00

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.