| Final/OT | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 36 |
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2:51 | Luke Glendening (1) Cam York (21), Garnet Hathaway (2) · snap xG 0.20 | 1–0 ▶ | |
| 2nd Period | |||
| 7:53 | Owen Tippett (23) Travis Sanheim (23) · tip-in xG 0.08 | 2–0 ▶ | |
| 19:22 | Cutter Gauthier (35)PP Pavel Mintyukov (11) · backhand xG 0.24 | 2–1 ▶ | |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 18:06 | Leo Carlsson (24) Troy Terry (35), Cutter Gauthier (26) · wrist xG 0.07 | 2–2 ▶ | |
| Overtime | |||
| 2:17 | Noah Cates (13) Matvei Michkov (18) · wrist xG 0.10 | 3–2 ▶ | |
Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.
Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works
| PHI | ANA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | Expected goals | 2.95 |
| 3 | Goals (no shootout) | 2 |
| 2.23 | Expected goals, 5 on 5 | 1.80 |
| 64 | Shot attempts | 72 |
| 52 | Unblocked attempts | 52 |
| 28 | Shots on goal | 36 |
What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).
| 1st Period | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | PHI | xG swing | xG swing · Out-chanced ANA 1.44–0.16
In xG over 10 minutes, 2:30 to 12:30 of the 1st; goals 1–0 |
| 3rd Period | |||
| 17:33 | ANA | Pulled goalie | Pulled goalie · Pulled Dostal, down 2–1
With 2:27 left; ANA scored at 18:06 of the 3rd (2–2) |
| 18:17 | ANA | Goalie | Goalie · Dostal +2.1 goals saved
2 goals on 4.07 xG, 27 shots on goal |
| 19:50 | ANA | No shift | No shift · Zellweger, 10:12 on the bench
No shift after 9:18 of the 3rd; 17 shifts (12:31) before that |
xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 11 | Travis Konecny | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.13 | 1 | 1 | 20:55 |
| 22 | Christian Dvorak | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 0.87 | 0 | 2 | 19:40 |
| 46 | Trevor Zegras | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 0 | 18:27 |
| 27 | Noah Cates | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 |
| 74 | Owen Tippett | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.60 | 3 | 1 | 16:24 |
| 14 | Sean Couturier | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 0 | 15:23 |
| 39 | Matvei Michkov | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 |
| 41 | Luke Glendening | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 0.44 | 3 | 0 | 14:00 |
| 20 | Alex Bump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 1 | 13:20 |
| 21 | Garnet Hathaway | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 0.40 | 6 | 1 | 11:56 |
| 86 | Denver Barkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 |
| 17 | Nikita Grebenkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 08:47 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 6 | Travis Sanheim | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 2 | 3 | 24:30 |
| 8 | Cam York | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 21:34 |
| 9 | Jamie Drysdale | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0 | 3 | 21:28 |
| 55 | Rasmus Ristolainen | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 3 | 20:45 |
| 24 | Nick Seeler | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.07 | 0 | 2 | 17:27 |
| 36 | Emil Andrae | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | 36 | 2 | 34 | .944 | 2.95 | +0.95 |
| Skater | G | A | P | +/− | Att | xG | Hit | Blk | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | ||||||||||
| 17 | Alex Killorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 |
| 45 | Beckett Sennecke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 |
| 19 | Troy Terry | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 8 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 | 19:07 |
| 61 | Cutter Gauthier | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 8 | 0.71 | 0 | 1 | 18:35 |
| 91 | Leo Carlsson | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 0.43 | 1 | 0 | 18:22 |
| 25 | Ryan Poehling | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.02 | 0 | 1 | 17:38 |
| 64 | Mikael Granlund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 |
| 22 | Chris Kreider | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 16:00 |
| 25 | Jeffrey Viel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.34 | 5 | 0 | 13:55 |
| 42 | Tim Washe | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 1 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 07:10 |
| 77 | Frank Vatrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0.06 | 2 | 0 | 05:48 |
| 10 | Jansen Harkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 04:06 |
| Defense | ||||||||||
| 2 | Jackson LaCombe | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 0.11 | 2 | 1 | 25:29 |
| 65 | Jacob Trouba | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 9 | 0.24 | 3 | 1 | 25:22 |
| 74 | John Carlson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.15 | 0 | 2 | 22:44 |
| 98 | Pavel Mintyukov | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 1 | 19:43 |
| 3 | Ian Moore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 |
| 8 | Olen Zellweger | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0.01 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 |
| Goalie | SA | GA | SV | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal | 28 | 3 | 25 | .893 | 4.54 | +1.54 |
Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.
What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Garnet Hathaway R | +2.00 | +0.55 | +0.26 | +0.98 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 11:56 |
| 6 Travis Sanheim D | +1.71 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.62 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.17 | — | 24:30 |
| 74 Owen Tippett R | +1.60 | +0.75 | +0.39 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | — | 16:24 |
| 41 Luke Glendening C | +1.38 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.04 | — | 14:00 |
| 27 Noah Cates L | +1.15 | +0.75 | +0.17 | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | — | 16:25 |
| 14 Sean Couturier C | +1.06 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 15:23 |
| 80 Dan Vladar G | +0.95 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +0.95 | 62:08 |
| 46 Trevor Zegras C | +0.85 | 0.00 | +0.18 | +0.71 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.01 | — | 18:27 |
| 29 Nikita Grebenkin R | +0.79 | 0.00 | +0.17 | +0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.02 | — | 8:47 |
| 8 Cam York D | +0.70 | +0.70 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.08 | — | 21:34 |
| 39 Matvei Michkov R | +0.64 | +0.70 | +0.25 | -0.14 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 14:17 |
| 55 Rasmus Ristolainen D | +0.58 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.06 | — | 20:45 |
| 9 Jamie Drysdale D | +0.48 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 21:22 |
| 52 Denver Barkey C | +0.39 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 11:41 |
| 24 Nick Seeler D | +0.36 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | — | 17:27 |
| 22 Christian Dvorak C | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.56 | -0.48 | -0.15 | +0.06 | +0.06 | — | 19:40 |
| 36 Emil Andrae D | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.01 | -0.12 | +0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 10:51 |
| 11 Travis Konecny R | -0.41 | 0.00 | +0.09 | -0.39 | -0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | — | 20:55 |
| 20 Alex Bump L | -0.55 | 0.00 | +0.17 | -0.73 | 0.00 | -0.01 | +0.03 | — | 13:20 |
| Player | Rating | Points | Shots | On ice | Pen | FO | Other | GSAx | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 Cutter Gauthier L | +1.64 | +1.30 | +0.46 | +0.03 | -0.15 | -0.03 | +0.03 | — | 18:35 |
| 1 Lukas Dostal G | +1.54 | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | — | — | +1.54 | 61:44 |
| 19 Troy Terry R | +1.10 | +0.70 | +0.31 | -0.13 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.07 | — | 19:07 |
| 91 Leo Carlsson C | +0.99 | +0.75 | +0.28 | +0.06 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.04 | — | 18:22 |
| 98 Pavel Mintyukov D | +0.87 | +0.70 | +0.05 | -0.15 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.12 | — | 19:44 |
| 74 John Carlson D | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.21 | -0.15 | 0.00 | +0.04 | — | 22:44 |
| 28 Jeffrey Viel L | +0.10 | 0.00 | +0.22 | +0.05 | -0.15 | 0.00 | -0.02 | — | 13:55 |
| 20 Chris Kreider L | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 16:00 |
| 25 Ryan Poehling C | +0.06 | 0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | 0.00 | -0.03 | +0.05 | — | 17:38 |
| 17 Alex Killorn L | +0.02 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.21 | +0.15 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 20:01 |
| 3 Ian Moore D | -0.04 | 0.00 | +0.02 | -0.21 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 13:54 |
| 45 Beckett Sennecke R | -0.11 | 0.00 | +0.13 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | — | 20:00 |
| 51 Olen Zellweger D | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 12:31 |
| 2 Jackson LaCombe D | -0.29 | 0.00 | +0.07 | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 25:29 |
| 64 Mikael Granlund C | -0.30 | 0.00 | +0.05 | -0.37 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.02 | — | 16:58 |
| 77 Frank Vatrano R | -0.50 | 0.00 | +0.04 | -0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 5:48 |
| 65 Jacob Trouba D | -0.57 | 0.00 | +0.15 | -0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | — | 25:22 |
| 42 Tim Washe C | -0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.49 | -0.15 | +0.01 | 0.00 | — | 7:10 |
| 24 Jansen Harkins C | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 4:06 |
An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.