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Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 3–2 Final Dallas StarsDAL

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Final 1st2nd3rd T SOG
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 111 3 33
Dallas StarsDAL 200 2 15
Playoff odds, % Change
VGK +8.7
DAL +0.0
LAK -2.1
SEA -1.6
SJS -1.5
NSH -1.4
EDM -1.1

How the result moved each team's playoff odds, calculated Mar 22, 2026 6:08 PM EDT.

Highlights

Scoring

1st Period
4:01 VGK Brayden McNabb (4) Keegan Kolesar (11), Shea Theodore (25) · snap xG 0.20 1–0 ▶
10:55 DAL Wyatt Johnston (38)PP Matt Duchene (21), Miro Heiskanen (50) · snap xG 0.21 1–1 ▶
16:48 DAL Justin Hryckowian (11) Colin Blackwell (9), Sam Steel (21) · wrist xG 0.23 1–2 ▶
2nd Period
9:10 VGK Ivan Barbashev (20)PP Brett Howden (8), Colton Sissons (5) · snap xG 0.15 2–2 ▶
3rd Period
16:22 VGK Reilly Smith (12) Mitch Marner (51), Pavel Dorofeyev (24) · snap xG 0.46 3–2 ▶

Score away–home after each goal; season totals in parentheses.

Shot quality

Expected goals (xG) rate every unblocked shot by how often shots like it go in, from where it was taken, the shot type, the strength and what happened just before it. How it works

VGK 83%Deserve to win17% DAL
VGKDAL
4.28Expected goals2.09
3Goals (no shootout)2
3.35Expected goals, 5 on 51.85
72Shot attempts38
46Unblocked attempts25
33Shots on goal15

Game notes

What stood out as the game went on, from the play-by-play and the shifts. Time on the bench is counted in 5-on-5 play outside the penalty box; the note says the player sat, not why. Goals saved are against the shots' expected goals (xG).

3rd Period
17:57 DAL Pulled goalie Pulled goalie · Pulled DeSmith, down 3–2
With 2:03 left

Shot map

VGK shoots ←Bigger circle: higher xG; filled: goal→ DAL shoots
Wyatt Johnston: tip-in, 95 ft, xG 0.00 (P1 1:21) Esa Lindell: snap, 64 ft, xG 0.01 (P1 1:47) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 13 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 3:01) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 4:32) Wyatt Johnston: wrist, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 4:41) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 4:50) Oskar Bäck: tip-in, 15 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 7:06) Arttu Hyry: snap, 30 ft, xG 0.14 (P1 7:22) Jack Eichel: wrist, 30 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 7:43) Ivan Barbashev: snap, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 8:30) Tomas Hertl: backhand, 10 ft, xG 0.08 (P1 11:28) Jack Eichel: tip-in, 17 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 11:58) Mark Stone: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.43 (P1 12:01) Nic Dowd: wrist, 57 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:12) Shea Theodore: slap, 59 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 13:36) Tomas Hertl: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.06 (P1 14:00) Sam Steel: wrist, 45 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 14:54) Matt Duchene: snap, 19 ft, xG 0.10 (P1 15:33) Pavel Dorofeyev: tip-in, 8 ft, xG 0.07 (P1 16:19) Colin Blackwell: snap, 40 ft, xG 0.04 (P1 16:46) Mitch Marner: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.16 (P1 18:52) Brayden McNabb: slap, 65 ft, xG 0.02 (P1 19:21) Pavel Dorofeyev: backhand, 12 ft, xG 0.05 (P1 19:45) Arttu Hyry: snap, 59 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 0:08) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 30 ft, xG 0.05 (P2 1:06) Jack Eichel: snap, 34 ft, xG 0.10 (P2 1:48) Jeremy Lauzon: snap, 44 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 2:12) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 27 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 3:00) Ilya Lyubushkin: slap, 41 ft, xG 0.03 (P2 3:23) Colton Sissons: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.06 (P2 3:59) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 4:25) Mavrik Bourque: backhand, 4 ft, xG 0.36 (P2 4:55) Nic Dowd: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.14 (P2 5:10) Matt Duchene: wrist, 171 ft, xG 0.00 (P2 5:14) Keegan Kolesar: snap, 62 ft, xG 0.01 (P2 5:27) Reilly Smith: backhand, 13 ft, xG 0.07 (P2 7:25) Mitch Marner: snap, 37 ft, xG 0.08 (P2 8:55) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 38 ft, xG 0.04 (P2 10:26) Ivan Barbashev: wrist, 66 ft, xG 0.02 (P2 17:15) Mitch Marner: snap, 54 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 0:44) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 10 ft, xG 0.21 (P3 1:17) Rasmus Andersson: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.25 (P3 1:36) Rasmus Andersson: slap, 46 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 1:58) Mavrik Bourque: tip-in, 7 ft, xG 0.10 (P3 2:47) Ilya Lyubushkin: slap, 39 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 3:25) Sam Steel: bat, 11 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 4:26) Michael Bunting: tip-in, 10 ft, xG 0.09 (P3 5:09) Miro Heiskanen: snap, 11 ft, xG 0.05 (P3 5:10) Mavrik Bourque: snap, 14 ft, xG 0.15 (P3 6:54) Mavrik Bourque: tip-in, 23 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 7:00) Wyatt Johnston: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 7:02) Colton Sissons: snap, 17 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 7:47) Rasmus Andersson: wrist, 59 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 8:11) Brayden McNabb: snap, 25 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 8:29) Pavel Dorofeyev: snap, 32 ft, xG 0.14 (P3 8:37) Jason Robertson: wrist, 14 ft, xG 0.12 (P3 8:49) Jack Eichel: backhand, 8 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 9:59) Kaedan Korczak: snap, 51 ft, xG 0.00 (P3 10:21) Brett Howden: wrist, 22 ft, xG 0.13 (P3 11:02) Jamie Benn: wrist, 38 ft, xG 0.03 (P3 11:32) Nic Dowd: snap, 33 ft, xG 0.06 (P3 11:46) Shea Theodore: wrist, 64 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 11:55) Mitch Marner: slap, 34 ft, xG 0.07 (P3 12:42) Mitch Marner: tip-in, 61 ft, xG 0.02 (P3 12:55) Pavel Dorofeyev: wrist, 41 ft, xG 0.04 (P3 16:03) Sam Steel: tip-in, 14 ft, xG 0.08 (P3 16:56) Brayden McNabb: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.20 (P1 4:01) Wyatt Johnston: GOAL, snap, 23 ft, xG 0.21 (P1 10:55) Justin Hryckowian: GOAL, wrist, 8 ft, xG 0.23 (P1 16:48) Ivan Barbashev: GOAL, snap, 16 ft, xG 0.15 (P2 9:10) Reilly Smith: GOAL, snap, 10 ft, xG 0.46 (P3 16:22)
About these numbers

xG comes from hockeystats.io's own model, a gradient-boosted tree model trained on every unblocked shot from the 2021-22 to 2025-26 regular seasons using the NHL's public play-by-play. Each shot's value is the share of similar shots that became goals. A team's xG is the sum over its shots; "deserve to win" asks how often the team would outscore its opponent if every shot went in at exactly that rate. Blocked shots count as attempts but have no xG (the NHL records where they were blocked, not where they were taken), so the map leaves them out.

Box score

Vegas Golden Knights

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
93 Mitch Marner 011 +1 80.40 1322:14
16 Pavel Dorofeyev 011 +1 70.49 0019:25
9 Jack Eichel 000 0 60.20 2019:01
61 Mark Stone 000 0 20.43 0017:32
49 Ivan Barbashev 101 0 60.52 0015:26
19 Reilly Smith 101 +1 20.54 1014:48
48 Tomas Hertl 000 0 20.14 1014:41
55 Keegan Kolesar 011 0 10.01 4014:13
15 Colton Sissons 011 0 40.22 2013:13
21 Brett Howden 011 0 20.13 2012:48
22 Cole Smith 000 0 10.00 4012:13
26 Nic Dowd 000 0 40.24 1110:20
Defense
4 Rasmus Andersson 000 0 60.60 0221:50
27 Shea Theodore 011 0 60.05 0121:28
3 Brayden McNabb 101 +1 70.27 3219:12
15 Noah Hanifin 000 +1 40.00 0016:58
5 Jeremy Lauzon 000 0 10.04 4116:00
6 Kaedan Korczak 000 0 30.00 1213:31
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Adin Hill 15213 .867 2.09 +0.09

Dallas Stars

Skater GAP+/− AttxG HitBlkTOI
Forwards
21 Jason Robertson 000 -1 30.12 0121:06
53 Wyatt Johnston 101 -1 40.30 0019:38
95 Matt Duchene 011 0 30.10 0218:32
22 Mavrik Bourque 000 -2 40.68 4116:35
18 Sam Steel 011 0 40.12 0116:10
49 Justin Hryckowian 101 0 20.23 4114:52
15 Colin Blackwell 011 +1 30.04 3113:54
14 Jamie Benn 000 0 10.03 0213:40
58 Michael Bunting 000 0 10.09 2012:51
10 Oskar Bäck 000 0 10.07 1011:24
25 Arttu Hyry 000 0 20.15 2111:18
11 Nathan Bastian 000 0 00.00 4008:43
Defense
4 Miro Heiskanen 011 0 20.05 1426:08
55 Thomas Harley 000 -1 20.00 0324:47
23 Esa Lindell 000 0 10.01 0521:37
5 Nils Lundkvist 000 -1 10.00 0215:50
6 Lian Bichsel 000 0 20.00 2014:56
46 Ilya Lyubushkin 000 0 20.10 1113:04
Goalie SAGA SVSV% xGA GSAx
Casey DeSmith 33330 .909 4.28 +1.28

Skaters by time on ice. Goalie lines count shots with the goalie in net, from the NHL play-by-play.

Player ratings

What each player added to the result, in goals, from most to least. Hover a number for what it's made of.

Vegas Golden Knights

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
3 Brayden McNabb D +2.61 +0.75 +0.18 +1.58 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 19:12
93 Mitch Marner R +2.45 +0.70 +0.26 +1.04 +0.30 +0.02 +0.13 — 22:14
19 Reilly Smith R +2.23 +0.75 +0.35 +1.16 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:48
16 Pavel Dorofeyev R +2.13 +0.55 +0.32 +1.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:25
27 Shea Theodore D +2.11 +0.55 +0.03 +1.52 0.00 0.00 +0.01 — 21:28
49 Ivan Barbashev L +2.10 +0.75 +0.34 +1.06 0.00 -0.01 -0.04 — 15:26
61 Mark Stone R +1.18 0.00 +0.28 +0.92 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 17:32
4 Rasmus Andersson D +1.15 0.00 +0.39 +0.72 0.00 0.00 +0.04 — 21:50
10 Colton Sissons C +0.88 +0.55 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 0.00 — 13:13
9 Jack Eichel C +0.75 0.00 +0.13 +0.94 -0.30 -0.02 0.00 — 19:01
21 Brett Howden C +0.74 +0.70 +0.09 -0.09 0.00 +0.04 0.00 — 12:48
26 Nic Dowd C +0.22 0.00 +0.15 +0.04 0.00 -0.02 +0.05 — 10:20
5 Jeremy Lauzon D +0.21 0.00 +0.02 +0.29 -0.15 0.00 +0.05 — 16:00
15 Noah Hanifin D +0.17 0.00 0.00 +0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 16:58
33 Adin Hill G +0.09 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +0.09 60:00
55 Keegan Kolesar R +0.04 +0.70 +0.01 -0.65 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 14:13
48 Tomas Hertl C -0.12 0.00 +0.09 -0.25 0.00 +0.02 +0.02 — 14:41
22 Cole Smith R -0.22 0.00 0.00 -0.20 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:13
6 Kaedan Korczak D -0.58 0.00 0.00 -0.68 0.00 0.00 +0.10 — 13:31

Dallas Stars

Player Rating Points Shots On ice Pen FO Other GSAx TOI
1 Casey DeSmith G +1.28 0.00 — — 0.00 — — +1.28 57:28
95 Matt Duchene C +0.45 +0.70 +0.07 -0.38 0.00 -0.02 +0.08 — 18:32
15 Colin Blackwell C +0.44 +0.70 +0.02 -0.30 0.00 -0.03 +0.05 — 13:54
53 Wyatt Johnston C +0.34 +0.75 +0.20 -0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 19:38
46 Ilya Lyubushkin D +0.32 0.00 +0.07 +0.22 0.00 0.00 +0.03 — 13:04
49 Justin Hryckowian C +0.26 +0.75 +0.15 -0.72 0.00 +0.03 +0.05 — 14:52
4 Miro Heiskanen D +0.21 +0.55 +0.03 -0.36 -0.15 0.00 +0.14 — 26:08
25 Arttu Hyry R +0.04 0.00 +0.10 -0.09 0.00 -0.03 +0.07 — 11:18
10 Oskar Bäck C -0.01 0.00 +0.04 -0.07 0.00 0.00 +0.02 — 11:24
18 Sam Steel C -0.07 +0.55 +0.08 -0.74 0.00 0.00 +0.05 — 16:10
22 Mavrik Bourque C -0.15 0.00 +0.44 -0.94 +0.30 0.00 +0.05 — 16:35
11 Nathan Bastian R -0.17 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 — 8:43
21 Jason Robertson L -0.23 0.00 +0.08 -0.49 +0.15 0.00 +0.03 — 21:06
6 Lian Bichsel D -0.25 0.00 0.00 -0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 — 14:56
23 Esa Lindell D -0.41 0.00 +0.01 -0.67 0.00 0.00 +0.25 — 21:37
14 Jamie Benn L -0.44 0.00 +0.02 -0.41 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 13:40
58 Michael Bunting L -0.45 0.00 +0.06 -0.49 0.00 0.00 -0.02 — 12:51
55 Thomas Harley D -0.96 0.00 0.00 -1.11 0.00 0.00 +0.15 — 24:47
5 Nils Lundkvist D -1.48 0.00 0.00 -1.43 -0.15 0.00 +0.10 — 15:50

An expected-goals take on Dom Luszczyszyn's Game Score: goals and assists, the quality of a player's own shots, shot quality for and against while they were on the ice at 5v5, penalties, faceoffs and puck plays, all in goals; goalies by goals saved above expected. From the NHL play-by-play and shift charts.